October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Really interesting block showing up on the ECMWF in the week 2 period.  Playing with fire for sure.

[TT-SEA]

Since I'll be in Manila the first half of November I'm sure it will verify.

 

I would not worry about the first half of November.    You won't miss much other than frequent rain.  

[Bryant]

Weather Channel says a low of 42 for my area Monday night. Kind of hard to get frost with temps like those...

People still use the weather channel?

[Trainwreck]

Really interesting block showing up on the ECMWF in the week 2 period. Playing with fire for sure.

Link it SW.

[TT-SEA]

Link it SW.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[snow_wizard]

 

Day 9 is a much more interesting example.

[snow_wizard]

People still use the weather channel?

 

Good point.  Right now the mets are still behind the times with the evolution of this cool period.

[TT-SEA]

Day 9 is a much more interesting example.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[Deweydog]

BIG, stressful sunbreak in progress here!

[TT-SEA]

BIG, stressful sunbreak in progress here!

 

 

Jessetastic!  

[FroYoBro]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100812/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Hey, you aren't SW!

[Deweydog]

Jessetastic!  

 

Hell yes!!!

[Deweydog]

Hey, you aren't SW!

 

I like your little picture thingy!  

 

You're usually not this confident this far out.  Hmmmm....

[FroYoBro]

I like your little picture thingy!  

 

You're usually not this confident this far out.  Hmmmm....

 

Changing my picture was a subtle way to announce my 2016-17 winter forecast. PDX will get 47 inches of snow in December. Nothing for the rest of the season. 

[ShawniganLake]

High of just 49 here so far. Dark with heavy drizzle currently.

[Bryant]

Good point. Right now the mets are still behind the times with the evolution of this cool period.

They are also all east coast biased

[TT-SEA]

BIG, stressful sunbreak in progress here!

 

 

69 at 2 p.m.

[Phil]

They are also all east coast biased

I don't think the wxchannel folks are east coast biased. Maybe somewhat warm biased overall? WxBell on the other hand, lol.

[Trainwreck]

I've got the links. Was seeng if I could get some ribbing from you guys about being lazy. Guess I haven't posted enough on here for that.

[Deweydog]

Changing my picture was a subtle way to announce my 2016-17 winter forecast. PDX will get 47 inches of snow in December. Nothing for the rest of the season.

Another shitbox January...

[TT-SEA]

Still a chance... 69 again at 3 p.m.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had a high here of 69.4 here today but coming down now. Down to 64.8... Been dry all day so got a little Pumpkin patch time in with warmth and dry. NICE!

[Weather101]

49F and rainy

[wx_statman]

I don't think the wxchannel folks are east coast biased. Maybe somewhat warm biased overall? WxBell on the other hand, lol.

 

I haven't watched them in years, but they definitely used to be East coast biased. I used to hate Kristina Abernathy because she would stand on the left side of the screen with her head blocking Portland. She clearly didn't care about us.

[BLI snowman]

69 for a high here. Probably won't hit 70 again until the end of the month.

[Phil]

I haven't watched them in years, but they definitely used to be East coast biased. I used to hate Kristina Abernathy because she would stand on the left side of the screen with her head blocking Portland. She clearly didn't care about us.

Oh, I thought we were discussing their winter forecasts.

 

I have no idea what they're like on TV, since Fios doesn't offer TWC anymore. I kinda miss the local on the 8s. It was recently playing at my doctor's office and I felt a wave of nostalgia come over me when I heard the voice, lol.

[wx_statman]

69 for a high here. Probably won't hit 70 again until the end of the month.

 

70 @ PDX. 

 

#notthisyear

[wx_statman]

Oh, I thought we were discussing their winter forecasts.

 

I have no idea what they're like on TV, since Fios doesn't offer TWC anymore. I kinda miss the local on the 8s. It was recently playing at my doctor's office and I felt a wave of nostalgia come over me when I heard the voice, lol.

 

I don't know much about their winter forecasts, to be honest.  

 

I do remember that in the 1990's their on-air coverage of west coast weather felt like an afterthought. That's when I used to watch them. It was all about the east coast.

[MossMan]

I don't know much about their winter forecasts, to be honest.

 

I do remember that in the 1990's their on-air coverage of west coast weather felt like an afterthought. That's when I used to watch them. It was all about the east coast.

I would only watch the "local on the 8's" during winter storms so I could see the colorful "winter storm warnings" in awesomely bright neon Commedore 64 text and graphics!!

[snow_wizard]

The 18z continues to trend slightly colder with the coming trough.  Looks like a decent northerly gradient with it.  Monday should be a sunny, crisp, breezy day in the Seattle area.  Best weather you can get in October!

[snow_wizard]

The NWS has begun to trend their temps lower.  Now calling for highs in the upper 50 on Monday with lows mid 30 to low 40s for the East Puget Sound Lowlands.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think the wxchannel folks are east coast biased. Maybe somewhat warm biased overall? WxBell on the other hand, lol.

 

Yeah....The Weatherbell winter forecast defies explanation.

[snow_wizard]

70 @ PDX. 

 

#notthisyear

 

D**n.  I looked at Hillsboro just a few minutes before I saw this and they only reached 67.

[Deweydog]

D**n. I looked at Hillsboro just a few minutes before I saw this and they only reached 67.

This is a pretty typical pattern where PDX/Vancouver/Troutdale are the top dogs.

[snow_wizard]

This is a pretty typical pattern where PDX/Vancouver/Troutdale are the top dogs.

 

It will suck if a cheap 70 ends up ruining it.  There's a decent chance this will be their only 70 this month.

 

Vancouver and TTD only hit 69.  Bummer!

[snow_wizard]

An 11 degree difference between the Bellingham Airport and South Bellingham right now.  Impressive!

 

Furthermore it is 43 just north of Vancouver which is 9 degrees lower than the Bellingham Airport.

[Deweydog]

It will suck if a cheap 70 ends up ruining it. There's a decent chance this will be their only 70 this month.

Horrific.

[wx_statman]

I would only watch the "local on the 8's" during winter storms so I could see the colorful "winter storm warnings" in awesomely bright neon Commedore 64 text and graphics!!

 

I used to watch "local on the 8's" for the awesome elevator music...

[snow_wizard]

Horrific.

 

It certainly is!

[wx_statman]

It will suck if a cheap 70 ends up ruining it.  There's a decent chance this will be their only 70 this month.

 

Vancouver and TTD only hit 69.  Bummer!

 

It was a close one, but this 70 was well advertised.