October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

Not worth much, but the last two runs of the ECMWF weeklies have trended poorly in the long range. Need to get forcing farther east, towards 150E, before the seasonal wavenumber starts declining more significantly.

 

This looks a lot like 1966 et al. Warm look almost everywhere, except maybe the NE.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B982F60E-FCED-4709-BFD1-3A7091CAF248_zpsyeajb5pi.jpg

IDK. A cold Alaska and mild pacific NW isn't a bad thing in November, is it?

[Tundra]

This is interesting, it looks like extratropical cyclone Songda might form a "Sting Jet". It's a meteorological phenomenon that has been postulated to cause some of the most damaging winds in extratropical cyclones.

 

http://i.imgur.com/6B2lh0m.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status/786268812588875777

[Timmy Supercell]

This is interesting, it looks like extratropical cyclone Songda might form a "Sting Jet". It's a meteorological phenomenon that has been postulated to cause some of the most damaging winds in extratropical cyclones.

 

http://i.imgur.com/6B2lh0m.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status/786268812588875777

 

I had never known about that before.. this has me interested!

[Phil]

IDK. A cold Alaska and mild pacific NW isn't a bad thing in November, is it?

It's not a good cold-season look, if you're a winter weather lover (unless you live in Siberia or Eastern Canada, I guess). Too far out to worry about right now, regardless.

 

Recent years with such a look in November include 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, and 2011/12. Not exactly the happiest list.

[Tundra]

I had never known about that before.. this has me interested!

 

Me either, here's an illustration of what a Sting Jet is. They usually occur in Europe.

 

[Phil]

I think I mentioned this last night, but the 00z ECMWF was truly a textbook W/S gradient/sting jet, in my opinion. Perfect timing and location of the low within the typical seclusion/occlusion cycle.

 

Though, mesoscale meteorology isn't my strong suit, so maybe IbrChris or Black Hole can correct me here.

[westcoastexpat]

This is interesting, it looks like extratropical cyclone Songda might form a "Sting Jet". It's a meteorological phenomenon that has been postulated to cause some of the most damaging winds in extratropical cyclones.

 

 

https://twitter.com/ensembleator/status/786268812588875777

 

It needs to move onshore, though.

[MossMan]

Such a nice day so far! I went into work late this morning so I could spend the earlier morning getting our boat out of the water and boat cover that is attached to the dock down since it would not withstand a windstorm of even minor levels. It was perfectly calm on the lake and we had a frosty dock. I spent some time just soaking it all in! Going back to the lake house tonight after work to finish winterizing the boat and getting everything ready for this active stretch of weather!!

[MossMan]

So what I am gathering by catching up on the forum is if the GFS and the EURO were to meet in the middle for Saturday the Puget Sound area could have a massive wind event?

[ShawniganLake]

If Saturdays storm was a potential snowstorm, anxiety levels would be through the roof around here right now.

[crf450ish]

If Saturdays storm was a potential snowstorm, anxiety levels would be through the roof around here right now.

I've only ever been on here once during a potential massive snow event, back when I first joined in 2009 before the new forum look. I would press F5 every 30 seconds just to load the new posts and there was like 20 new posts a minute it seemed like. 

[MossMan]

If Saturdays storm was a potential snowstorm, anxiety levels would be through the roof around here right now.

Even the Gordon's Fisherman would be peeing his pants with anxiety and excitement.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I've only ever been on here once during a potential massive snow event, back when I first joined in 2009 before the new forum look. I would press F5 every 30 seconds just to load the new posts and there was like 20 new posts a minute it seemed like. 

YOu should have seen this board during the 2008 event!  It was absolutely manic, and after it was all over I think we were all exhausted and needed a few days off. It was amazing and fun!!  I would pay nearly anything to have a repeat event to follow like that.

[Timmy Supercell]

I've only ever been on here once during a potential massive snow event, back when I first joined in 2009 before the new forum look. I would press F5 every 30 seconds just to load the new posts and there was like 20 new posts a minute it seemed like. 

 

The last time I was so overloaded with that much anticipation and excitement was for the June 2009 storms. It's been 7+ years since then!

[Tundra]

It needs to move onshore, though.

 

I think it will with a landfall somewhere on the upper Oregon and Washington coastline. Extratropical Cyclone Songda is reminding me so much of Super Storm Sandy. The GFS kept Sandy offshore with no landfall and the EURO was the first to show landfall. If the EURO solution verifies with Songda then it will once again prove why it's the most superior model in the World.

[Phil]

Awesome site for tracking worldwide/regional snowfall. I'm watching Eurasia, a there's a slight correlation between October snowcover advance there and cold/blocky western hemispheric winters.

 

http://www.frontierweather.com/snowicepage.html

[MossMan]

I've only ever been on here once during a potential massive snow event, back when I first joined in 2009 before the new forum look. I would press F5 every 30 seconds just to load the new posts and there was like 20 new posts a minute it seemed like.

You should go back in the archives to the Dec 2008 madness...so fun!!!!

[Deweydog]

Ol' Nate overcompensating for the fact he posted August's number so late!

 

September PDO comes in a .45.  

 

Like a watched pot...

[Deweydog]

I think it will with a landfall somewhere on the upper Oregon and Washington coastline. Extratropical Cyclone Songda is reminding me so much of Super Storm Sandy. The GFS kept Sandy offshore with no landfall and the EURO was the first to show landfall. If the EURO solution verifies with Songda then it will once again prove why it's the most superior model in the World.

 

Not sure about this line of thinking.  If anything, there's probably a higher probability of a sharper curve to the north than what most models are showing given the fact most bombing lows that take a more southerly, or west-east track have more in the way of cold air advection on the backside.  I think a northern VISL or slightly north of that is probably the way to go.  The Euro is pretty rogue.  

[BLI snowman]

Our dear friend the 18z NAM is slower with the deepening of the Saturday storm. Thus winds up south and east of its position on the 12z.

[BLI snowman]

Ol' Nate overcompensating for the fact he posted August's number so late!

 

September PDO comes in a .45.  

 

Like a watched pot...

 

Would have guessed a bit lower.

 

33rd straight positive month but also the 5th consecutive monthly drop. 

[Deweydog]

Would have guessed a bit lower.

 

33rd straight positive month but also the 5th consecutive monthly drop.

Me too. I was thinking right around neutral.

[Tundra]

Here's a good write-up about the upcoming windstorm from the wunderground.com tropical blog from poster BayFog, entry #102.

 

102. BayFog

8:37 PM GMT on October 12, 2016

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/wv-animated.gif

 

"Nose of energetic Pacific jet has reached the coast at about Cape Mendocino, carrying underneath it the moisture plume fed by Typhoon Songda. The Typhoon has reached the latitude of San Francisco and is about to reach the axis of the jet at 40N. It should accelerate eastward at that point as it undergoes extratropical transition, becoming a rapidly deepening midlatitude cyclone. The surface wind field should then also expand."

 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3477

[westcoastexpat]

18Z NAM takes Saturday (Songda) low through southern Vancouver Island, trending more toward the GFS (far northern Vancouver Island) and the GGEM (north-central Vancouver Island).

 

Euro is really out on its own.

[stuffradio]

Looks like some thunderstorm potential for WA and SW BC in the next few days. CAPE is up a bit.

[westcoastexpat]

Looks like some thunderstorm potential for WA and SW BC in the next few days. CAPE is up a bit.

 

Yeah, that instability is what really is going to help bring some of those strong gusts reach the surface.

[Tundra]

Not sure about this line of thinking.  If anything, there's probably a higher probability of a sharper curve to the north than what most models are showing given the fact most bombing lows that take a more southerly, or west-east track have more in the way of cold air advection on the backside.  I think a northern VISL or slightly north of that is probably the way to go.  The Euro is pretty rogue.  

 

Landfall along the coastline would be great to insure strong winds but even the Columbus Day Storm didn't make landfall until Tatoosh Island. As long as it takes the classic path then everybody west of the Cascades is in endanger of seeing hurricane force wind gusts.

[westcoastexpat]

Landfall along the coastline would be great to insure strong winds but even the Columbus Day Storm didn't make landfall until Tatoosh Island. As long as it takes the classic path then everybody west of the Cascades is in endanger of seeing hurricane force wind gusts.

 

That's easier said than done. I think you're taking quite a few liberties here... The odds of this system mimicking the effects seen from Freda are really, really low given that there's only one model showing that solution, and that model's ensembles have continued to trend toward the NAM/GFS/GGEM solution.

 

On Monday the Euro had Saturday's system reaching northern Vancouver Island's tip. The Euro does not have a history of being all that consistent handling Songda's trajectory.

[stuffradio]

Insanity

 

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_images/client_sites/CW/CFSV2/final_CL001/CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_SEASONAL_E_3.png

[Tundra]

That's easier said than done. I think you're taking quite a few liberties here... The odds of this system mimicking the effects seen from Freda are really, really low given that there's only one model showing that solution, and that model's ensembles have continued to trend toward the NAM/GFS/GGEM solution.

 

On Monday the Euro had Saturday's system reaching northern Vancouver Island's tip. The Euro does not have a history of being all that consistent handling Songda's trajectory.

 

I am just pointing out the worst case scenario. We will get a better idea in the next day or so of what will happen. 

[Phil]

Insanity

 

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_images/client_sites/CW/CFSV2/final_CL001/CL001_2MTEMP_DEP_SEASONAL_E_3.png

Haha, let's do it!

[westcoastexpat]

Insanity

 

 

Wow that's pretty impressive.

 

I have a question. I normally don't follow the CFS, but I feel like every time I've seen a CFS outlook it shows widespread way above normal temps. Is it unusual to see so much below normal??

[Phil]

Wow that's pretty impressive.

 

I have a question. I normally don't follow the CFS, but I feel like every time I've seen a CFS outlook it shows widespread way above normal temps. Is it unusual to see so much below normal??

Climate models in general tend to run warm @ the surface, for a variety of reasons, but sometimes can run cold in the subtropics. I'd recommend just observing tendencies in the 500mb heights and ignore surface temperature output altogether. Simulating 2m temperatures just isn't easily done, IMO.

[Tundra]

From Ryan Maue what the newest edition of the 12z EURO is showing. The simulated IR for Saturday looks impressive.

 

"100-mph+ wind gusts along Washington / Oregon coast w/powerful hurricane force low Saturday. Coastal rain 10-20"+ from parade of storms"

 

http://i.imgur.com/yrjcxF8.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/5G7lKHc.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/786318456702500864

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS edged another 150-200 miles further southeast from previous runs. Looks like a wind storm, just not the destructive kind the ECMWF shows. The trend towards the ECMWF though to me is very obvious, or perhaps a ECMWF/GEM/NOGAPS blend. Each GFS run now post tropical Songda is a few mb weaker from 160-140 W, the wave edges closer to 135-130 W before developing, undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, then turning northeast/north.... Onto 00z!

[Model Countdown]
Next up...
*00z NAM in 3 hour 36 minutes
00z GFS in 5 hours 17 minutes
00z GEM in 6 hours 32 minutes
00z ECMWF in 7 hours 35 minutes

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like some thunderstorm potential for WA and SW BC in the next few days. CAPE is up a bit.

 

Think any could reach the east sides?

[Gradient Keeper]

Jesse is back!

[westcoastexpat]

18z GFS edged another 150-200 miles further southeast from previous runs. Looks like a wind storm, just not the destructive kind the ECMWF shows. The trend towards the ECMWF though to me is very obvious, or perhaps a ECMWF/GEM/NOGAPS blend. Each GFS run now post tropical Songda is a few mb weaker from 160-140 W, the wave edges closer to 135-130 W before developing, undergoing rapid cyclogenesis, then turning northeast/north.... Onto 00z!

 

[Model Countdown]

Next up...

*00z NAM in 3 hour 36 minutes

00z GFS in 5 hours 17 minutes

00z GEM in 6 hours 32 minutes

00z ECMWF in 7 hours 35 minutes

 

I don't agree with that. It looks to me that the GFS has trended toward the GEM/NAM solution. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't agree with that. It looks to me that the GFS has trended toward the GEM/NAM solution. 

Based on what I mentioned, and the 12z EC ENS shows many dangerous solutions on the MSLP chart. Scary

[stuffradio]

IMO, NAM seems to be the more likely track. We'll see though of course.