October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Regardless of how this turns out in terms of intensity it's pretty neat thinking we're about to get hit by a pocket of low pressure that just 4 days ago was a super typhoon. That certainly doesn't happen very often. Hopefully it will just be a fun storm and nothing too destructive. Can't help but feel there will still be at least some lingering aspects of the origin of this system when it hits.

[MossMan]

What happened to DJ? He was doing several updates a day and then just stopped! Anyway calm/dry and 49 degrees at 4:52am.

[westcoastexpat]

In my experience with computers working to solve problems, the harder the problem is to solve, the longer it takes. Just throwing it out there. 

 

It's the traffic on the websites. A lot of people are model watching.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the latest HRRR at 5 p.m. this evening showing wind gusts... about the same as the other models.

 

Interesting to note that much of the West has wind gusts similar to the Seattle area at that time.   In fact... look at Nevada and even from San Francisco to Sacramento and up towards the Sierras.    Looks relatively calm in King County by comparison.  

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/for_web/hrrr_jet/2016101510/t1/gust_t110m_f14.png

[crf450ish]

It's the traffic on the websites. A lot of people are model watching.

 

Ahh, bogged down server. Didn't consider that.

[Weather101]

Peak winds.

Wow. I would see insane winds.

[crf450ish]

Where is everybody? It's Saturday...... is the power out already? 

[Weather101]

Where is everybody? It's Saturday...... is the power out already?

Hung over.

[crf450ish]

Hung over.

I feel that. Cheap beer and not enough water for me last night. ;(

[MossMan]

Where is everybody? It's Saturday...... is the power out already?

Everyone waiting for the 12z's???

[Weather101]

I feel that. Cheap beer and not enough water for me last night. ;(

Oh those are the worst mornings

[Brennan]

Feels like we just had a busted snowstorm on the forum. 

[Brennan]

Rain creeping north. Watching the radar makes me imagine if this were an overrunning event... If only it were 20* right now

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/radar.shtml

 

Even winds here are out of the NNE right now. 

[crf450ish]

Oh those are the worst mornings

Its not that bad. I paced myself haha but the lack of hydration is evident this morning. The excitement for todays storm is what motivated me to get out of bed at the hour I did. 

[FroYoBro]

Anyone think PDX might not see a gust over 45 mph? I think the public is going to be pretty upset about the big media blowup once this afternoon turns out to be unimpressive down here. 

[Weather101]

Its not that bad. I paced myself haha but the lack of hydration is evident this morning. The excitement for todays storm is what motivated me to get out of bed at the hour I did.

Water is key when you drink but sometimes I even forget and regret it when I wake up.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone think PDX might not see a gust over 45 mph? I think the public is going to be pretty upset about the big media blowup once this afternoon turns out to be unimpressive down here. 

 

Its going to be bad... people are probably going to storm government buildings and the NWS office.    I would get out of town while you can.   

[FroYoBro]

Its going to be bad... people are probably going to storm government buildings and the NWS office.    I would get out of town while you can.   

 

I knew a revolution down here just needed a spark. Pray for us. 

[BLI snowman]

Anyone think PDX might not see a gust over 45 mph? I think the public is going to be pretty upset about the big media blowup once this afternoon turns out to be unimpressive down here. 

 

Looking unlikely we get much over that.

 

The 1962 comparisons from some in the media the past few days have been recklessly moronic.

[FroYoBro]

Looking unlikely we get much over that.

 

The 1962 comparisons from some in the media the past few days have been recklessly moronic.

Yeah. I have been talking to people at work and people are buying into this being a big time storm. Someone up in Washington is going to get nailed pretty good, but it won't be anything super notable down here. 

[MossMan]

Yeah. I have been talking to people at work and people are buying into this being a big time storm. Someone up in Washington is going to get nailed pretty good, but it won't be anything super notable down here.

Probably why DJ quit doing his updates...I don't blame him, when Oregon was getting nailed by snow and we were high and dry up here I didn't want to post much either.

[HighlandExperience]

Probably why DJ quit doing his updates...I don't blame him, when Oregon was getting nailed by snow and we were high and dry up here I didn't want to post much either.

Yup that sucked .

[Tundra]

NWS Portland going for sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph and gust 50 to 60 mph. Let's see what happens.

 

 

https://twitter.com/NWSPortland/status/787243828260458496

[Tundra]

Here is what NWS Seattle is thinking for their area.

 

 

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/787266115747454976

[TT-SEA]

Peak wind gust time on the WRF for most of Western WA... 8 p.m. this evening.   

 

Pretty wimpy for Seattle... not any more windy than yesterday.   Looks like 40-45 mph gusts near the Sound and less for the eastern side of the Seattle area.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.15.0000.gif

[stuffradio]

HRRR is saying I will be in the 60 knot range. That's insane. What was the 2006 max gusts for Stanley park?

 

 

I knew a revolution down here just needed a spark. Pray for us. 

You will rebuild.

[HighlandExperience]

Bellingham is about to get blasted. 

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham is about to get blasted. 

 

 

Hurricane Ridge too!  

 

Appropriately named.  

[HighlandExperience]

Hurricane Ridge too!  

 

Appropriately named.  

 

Ya it will get brutal up there. Love that area. 

[TT-SEA]

I believe the 'eye' of the storm is now visible on the coastal radar in the SW corner of its range.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Going to be an average event for us south Puget sounders ... north looks to get pounded windmaggedon style... leaf laden trees will push up power outages.

[Phil]

Going to be an average event for us south Puget sounders ... north looks to get pounded windmaggedon style... leave laden trees will push up power outages.

"Leave laden"? Come on man, that's terrible.

[seattleweatherguy]

So winds in seattle proper aren't going to be bad?

[snow_wizard]

The operational GFS shows this being a real dud for Seattle.  The WRF has the track more to the east, but still only a marginal high wind event for Seattle.  The central and north WA Coast look to get hammered though as well the north interior and southern Vancouver Island.  Looks like Point Roberts could have some serious damage if the WRF is correct.

[TT-SEA]

So winds in seattle proper aren't going to be bad?

 

No.   Typical fall storm for Seattle.  

[seattleweatherguy]

The operational GFS shows this being a real dud for Seattle. The WRF has the track more to the east, but still only a marginal high wind event for Seattle. The central and north WA Coast look to get hammered though as well the north interior and southern Vancouver Island. Looks like Point Roberts could have some serious damage if the WRF is correct.

Problem is what model to believe?

[seattleweatherguy]

No. Typical fall storm for Seattle.

So like 40 to 45 mph gusts? Can cancel hotel reservation.

[snow_wizard]

Its going to be bad... people are probably going to storm government buildings and the NWS office.    I would get out of town while you can.   

 

The funny thing is that actually happened in Seattle in January 1909.  People were so pissed off about the prolonged cold and snow and an earthquake in the midst of all that they took up arms and blocked the exits of the Weather Bureau building and wouldn't let people leave.  If only weathermen had as much control over the weather as people thought back then!

[FroYoBro]

There is a pretty decent eastern gradient building up through the gorge now.