October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Problem is what model to believe?

 

Anything is still possible, but the normal outcome of these is a stronger more northerly tracking low than expected.

[seattleweatherguy]

Anything is still possible, but the normal outcome of these is a stronger more northerly tracking low than expected.

The more northerly track the weaker or stronger it us for us?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the low is about 979mb off Oregon coast at 12z. At 6z it was 988mb, for comparison purposes.

 

The GFS has been consistently weaker on this than all other models. I believe it's still the only one showing the low never dropping below 975mb. I guess we'll know which is right soon enough; most other models are going for 967~970mb.

[Phil]

The funny thing is that actually happened in Seattle in January 1909. People were so pissed off about the prolonged cold and snow and an earthquake in the midst of all that they took up arms and blocked the exits of the Weather Bureau building and wouldn't let people leave. If only weathermen had as much control over the weather as people thought back then!

Two scientists were recently jailed for failing to predict an Earthquake. I don't think we've come very far.

[westcoastexpat]

So like 40 to 45 mph gusts? Can cancel hotel reservation.

 

Winds will be much better further north.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No.   Typical fall storm for Seattle.

 

A 970mb low taking this tract is not typical.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have a 4th floor room at ocean shores.should be fun.

[FroYoBro]

I have a 4th floor room at ocean shores.should be fun.

 

Take video! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am not at ocean yet. I'll keep you maniacs posted lol.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The GFS has been consistently weaker on this than all other models. I believe it's still the only one showing the low never dropping below 975mb. I guess we'll know which is right soon enough; most other models are going for 967~970mb.

 

12z... 966 mb

 

[Bryant]

A 970mb low taking this tract is not typical.

He downplays everything. Typical Tim

[TT-SEA]

A 970mb low taking this tract is not typical.

 

 

The results will be typical in Seattle proper... due to a tight wind field and westerly track.   

 

The storm is strong and some places will be hit hard.   For Seattle and Portland is will be very much like a typical fall storm.   

[TT-SEA]

He downplays everything. Typical Tim

 

 

OK Bryant.

 

Questions were being asked about the Seattle area.

 

Tell me how we should respond?   Historic storm with massive problems?    That would be wrong.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A few signs of this storm's origin, the TPW is lighting up with intense bands in a small area. So far this looks much more impressive than yesterday's system, which can be seen to fizzle out by landfall on there.

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/anim/latest72hrs.gif

[TT-SEA]

I have a 4th floor room at ocean shores.should be fun.

 

 

That is really cool... and in a good spot to get hit hard.

[snow_wizard]

Two scientists were recently jailed for failing to predict an Earthquake. I don't think we've come very far.

 

Wow!  I hadn't heard that.

[Phil]

Wow! I hadn't heard that.

They were eventually cleared, but..yeah: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2829107/Scientists-jailed-manslaughter-did-not-predict-deadly-earthquake-Italy-killed-309-people-cleared.html

[VancouverIslandSouth]

12z... 966 mb

 

 

Judging by the isobars this thing is going to be intense for Victoria and areas bordering the Strait of Georgia. Looks like a direct hit over the south island.

[TT-SEA]

The funny thing is that actually happened in Seattle in January 1909.  People were so pissed off about the prolonged cold and snow and an earthquake in the midst of all that they took up arms and blocked the exits of the Weather Bureau building and wouldn't let people leave.  If only weathermen had as much control over the weather as people thought back then!

 

 

Can you link me to a story on this?

[snow_wizard]

I am not at ocean yet. I'll keep you maniacs posted lol.

 

It should be incredible there.  WRF shows hurricane force gusts for that area.

[MossMan]

It should be incredible there. WRF shows hurricane force gusts for that area.

Indeed! I am quite jealous, that will be about as good of storm watching on the coast as it gets!!! Have fun and stay safe Mr. Snowmizer!

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

I agree that, at this point at least, this doesn't look like as big of deal for the Seattle area than what media/NWS believes. Looking at the gradients at around 2PM, when the low is off the mouth of the Columbia river, you might get some nice east winds out of the passes. That might be your best shot at high(er) winds if this thing tracks further W/NW.

 

We don't normally get too much east wind in Carnation as we aren't in a "gap" like North Bend.

 

 

A good east wind here is very common.   We have strong east winds ahead of most warm fronts in the fall and winter.   Its dead calm here now though.    The winds switch to southerly later this afternoon.

 

This should be a non-event for this area... probably less windy than yesterday.  

 

It would definitely be fun to be in Ocean Shores taking in the action without worrying about your own property.

[TT-SEA]

The 12Z GFS is pretty much perfect for most of the run.   

 

Plenty of dry weather... but with a cool air mass making inversions unlikely.     

 

We might be rewarded now with now beautiful fall weather after paying our stormy dues.  

[HighlandExperience]

Wow! I hadn't heard that.

European countries are backwards in some ways.

[HighlandExperience]

LOL - That would be quite fitting given how this storm has been modeled so far! I think this will be one of those times where we won't know the exact strength/track until it starts happening. Models have just been wiff-waffling too much and, as Dewey mentioned last night, the wind field on this thing is so small that if it comes in even 20 miles E/SE from Cape Flattery, it will hit Seattle area much harder.

 

Cliff Mass mentioned in his blog post this morning that it seems the buoy readings of hPa are showing the low to be a little stronger than currently modeled at this point. That being said, I think the WRF will end up correct with the track. Strength, up in the air.

It wouldn't take much of a change for this to be pretty bad for Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

Considering we have been tracking this storm for going on a week now, I would say the models have handled it pretty well overall. 

[ShawniganLake]

On a non-storm related weather note....It has been relatively cool here this month.  Running -2F through the 13th at Shawnigan Lake. 

[snow_wizard]

Considering we have been tracking this storm for going on a week now, I would say the models have handled it pretty well overall. 

 

They have.  Nailing down the exact details is impossible more than a day or two out, but they did well with the big picture.

[snow_wizard]

On a non-storm related weather note....It has been relatively cool here this month.  Running -2F through the 13th at Shawnigan Lake. 

 

Nice.  We are running about right on normal here.  Decent shot the month ends up below normal for most of us.

[TT-SEA]

They have.  Nailing down the exact details is impossible more than a day or two out, but they did well with the big picture.

 

 

Even more than week ago we were looking at this basic set-up around this time frame and we all commented on it.  

[TT-SEA]

Nice.  We are running about right on normal here.  Decent shot the month ends up below normal for most of us.

 

 

Seems more likely with much drier weather ahead now.  

[westcoastexpat]

Given the low is deepening slightly more than modelled, I wouldn't be surprised to see the low end up slightly further west.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like some breezy south winds have shown up at Eugene. Still nothing impressive at any central Oregon coast locations. 

[Kayla]

Looking at latest models at satellite trends, 45-55 mph gusts for PDX area seems like a safe bet.

 

Should still cause quite a few issues out there later today with the trees still mostly fully leafed.

[Tundra]

At 11:05 am EUG reporting winds from the S at 30 mph with a 36 mph gust.

[ShawniganLake]

Were there any last minute changes with the 12Z euro?

[crf450ish]

I am not at ocean yet. I'll keep you maniacs posted lol.

That is actually really cool that your there for this event. Only once have I had a front row seat at the ocean during a storm and I was 9 years old. All I remember is being told to stay in the car..... :|

[westcoastexpat]

NWS calling for 75 mph gusts for western Whatcom county.

[MossMan]

NWS calling for 75 mph gusts for western Whatcom county.

Going to be Wild up there! I'm hoping for at least a gust or two of 60mph here in northern Snohomish Co.