November 2016 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies looking very similar to the CFSv2 weeklies for Week 2-4 as Winter is gearing up to come out of the gates for the Lower 48.  Similarly, both models showing the blocking developing in Canada, AK and near Greenland by Week 2 with a storm track diving into the W/SW allowing for a wet/stormy period to ignite.  Week 3-4 is when the model is showing true arctic origin air infiltrating N.A. and La Nina type storm track over the CONUS.

 

CFSv2 developing a powerhouse Aleutian Low, downstream trough for the lower 48...may even be showing signs of a cross polar flow as riding could develop near Siberia.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016111700/cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_4.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2016111700/cfs-avg_z500aMean_npac_5.png

 

 

[Niko]

Today, warm air will filter the area with temps near record highs, especially, tomorrow. Looking forward to any flurries or snowshowers this weekend. Any accumulations will be light, as stated by Noaa.

[Niko]

I checked Accu-Weather (extended forecast) and as of right now, December not looking too shabby. We will see. Again, this is Accu-weather we are talking about. We definitely need to have a white ground in December, since, Christmas will be just around the corner.

[Tom]

Shades of '58, MSP is yet to have a first freeze and this year it will crush its previous record set on Nov 6th 1958:

 

Taken from Weather 2020 Blog:

 

 

 

Speaking of records……..how about this one:  Minneapolis/St. Paul (MSP) has yet to have a freeze. They have a Winter Weather Advisory and their first freeze will happen within the next 24 hours, but incredibly they are already ELEVEN days past their latest freeze on record until now which was set in 1958 when it finally reached freezing on November 6th. Wow!

[jaster220]

Shades of '58, MSP is yet to have a first freeze and this year it will crush its previous record set on Nov 6th 1958:

 

Taken from Weather 2020 Blog:

 

I read somewhere that season went on to be a notoriously cold one? #1958-59

[Niko]

One thing is for sure, this winter will be much colder than last year and the year before that.

[Niko]

Shades of '58, MSP is yet to have a first freeze and this year it will crush its previous record set on Nov 6th 1958:

 

Taken from Weather 2020 Blog:

Talk about being a mild November.

[gosaints]

Plus 11.5 here for the month.  Will go up further today.  Saturday through monday below normal than back above normal after that it looks like though not nearly as much.

[james1976]

GFS with quite a snowstorm next fri-sat. I just know im gonna miss out on my first snow of the season when im in NC from the 22nd-29th. Dangit! Lol

[gosaints]

GFS with quite a snowstorm next fri-sat. I just know im gonna miss out on my first snow of the season when im in NC from the 22nd-29th. Dangit! Lol

Looks like cold rain verbatim

[westMJim]

I read somewhere that season went on to be a notoriously cold one? #1958-59

Yes, the winter of 1958/59 was indeed a very cold and snowy one (at least here in Michigan) While no big snowstorms there were a lot of 2 to 3" events the biggest one day snow falls (at GRR) were a 5.1" one in January and a 5.3" one in February the total at GR for that winter was 104.7" January was the snowiest month with 32.6" That winter (at grr) the departures were December was - 8.7° January was -6.7 February was -4.5 and March was -4.1° So far this November GR is at +6.6°

[westMJim]

I am now up to 67° at my house. I am getting ready to go for my walk and then put the outside Christmas decorations up.  It look to be a great day to do that. While I would not call this summer like today it sure is late September early October like (or late April early May) BTW the record high for this date is 70 set in 1958 the current reading at GRR is now 66° 

[hlcater]

Looks like cold rain verbatim

At most heavy wet flakes that melt on contact.

[Niko]

It feels like spring outside. What a gorgeous day. Enjoy while some on this forum have this mild, to even warm air.

[Niko]

At least 40% of my sub has put their Christmas lights on. It seems that this year everyone is in a rush.

[Niko]

@The Italian: you might see some appreciable snow this weekend. Keep an eye on it.

[Niko]

Now, lets get a repeat this winter!

[Tom]

CPC's  updated outlook for December...notable dryness could continue in the SE...active storm track near the Rockies and Lakes...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/off14_prcp.gif

[Tom]

@ Okwx, how do the Euro Weeklies look????

[OKwx2k4]

Honestly Tom, if I had to describe it, it looks like the cookie cutter version of an El Niño. Lol. Warm in the north and pockets of below avg rolling through the south. Indicative of several troughs.

 

Looks like disturbances rolling through the southern US and some cut up from east TX up through the GL region. It looks like a more promising run than I've seen in awhile. Ensembles bring the 2" snow line down to I-35 in Oklahoma and clear to Mexico in the west. Good run or at least great improvement in my opinion. Looks like the opposite of the CPC precip map. Lol

[Tom]

Another shade of '58???  Dr. Cohen mentions that the second most earliest strato warming was Nov 1958.  We may beat that this year as the models are predicting a major warming Nov 26-27.

 

 

 

Previous earliest major warming was Nov 30 1958. Models predicting a major warming Nov 26-27. Fall #polarvortex likely unprecedented.

[OKwx2k4]

Another shade of '58??? Dr. Cohen mentions that the second most earliest strato warming was Nov 1958. We may beat that this year as the models are predicting a major warming Nov 26-27.

I'd take a 58-59 winter. Pretty solid performance out of every month from Dec-Mar with 15-18 inches of snow.

[clintbeed1993]

Jim Flowers is calling for lots of snow.  Thinks we have a major pattern change coming first week of December with lots of cold and snow through New Years.  He is actually a pretty accurate long range forecaster.  Hope he's right, I've been dying for a front loaded winter for years!

 

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersForecaster/videos/605288142991839/

[clintbeed1993]

Just moved to Grand Island yesterday and looks like we have a shot at a couple inches of snow overnight!  Might stay up to catch the first flakes of the season

 

http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory?sid=gid#.WC5vbclEY6Y

[james1976]

Jim Flowers is calling for lots of snow.  Thinks we have a major pattern change coming first week of December with lots of cold and snow through New Years.  He is actually a pretty accurate long range forecaster.  Hope he's right, I've been dying for a front loaded winter for years!

 

https://www.facebook.com/JimFlowersForecaster/videos/605288142991839/

GFS is very active run after run heading into December. I'm excited about this pattern change!

[OKwx2k4]

GFS is very active run after run heading into December. I'm excited about this pattern change!

If I were to cherry pick winter months to blend together and put in an analog, you would get what the weeklies have for December. :-) I hope we can trust them. Opening week of December on the ensembles has cold 850s anchored right over my head with a great storm track.

[Niko]

My weatherman just said that highs tomorrow will be between 70-75F. Unreal!

[Thunder98]

Will December be colder and snowier than average for the Midwest?

[jaster220]

Now, lets get a repeat this winter!

 

Niko, do you have a link to where you got this? 

 

My weatherman just said that highs tomorrow will be between 70-75F. Unreal!

 

 

 

It's been a great run!

[Niko]

Niko, do you have a link to where you got this? 

 

 

20161117 Farewell to warmth of 2016.PNG

 

It's been a great run!

Actually, a friend of mine emailed me that map, but, no idea where he got it from.

[Niko]

Will December be colder and snowier than average for the Midwest?

Right now, the odds are for a snowier, colder solution.

[Niko]

@Jaster: it looks like in the "Blizzard of 78", you received more snow than SEMI. I would say, 6-12inches more is a good bet.

[jaster220]

Right now, the odds are for a snowier, colder solution.

 

If December indeed decides to rock, these are the (recent) "deltas" to shoot for here in Marshall:  Dec '08 had 28", and Dec '00 had 40" (a huge Dec!)

 

@Jaster: it looks like in the "Blizzard of 78", you received more snow than SEMI. I would say, 6-12inches more is a good bet.

 

LOL, well I did, and I didn't at the same time since (in '78) I was a kid growing up in SEMI not living here in Marshall.    But yeah, Marshall got at least 22" vs. KFNT back home in SEMI with 9". Extreme SEMI got really screwed by the warm tongue on that one with mixed precip really cutting totals. Nonetheless, I've seen folks post that even in northern burbs of Detroit it took them 3 days to get home. That's how hard that storm hit and it was so rare you can't hardly describe it now unless you have 1st hand experiences. I saw one woman's post from OH somewhere. She fell into a drift trying to find the door of her apt building (like 15 feet from) and later was scared that she felt maybe she wouldn't find the door and just be stuck there and die. True life-threatening winter storms like that one are (thankfully for the unsuspecting) rare and thus legendary.  

[Tom]

GFS trying to lay the ground work and fill in all the snow holes in Canada into the northern Plains to finish off the month..need this trend to continue...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016111806/324/snod.conus.png

[westMJim]

If December indeed decides to rock, these are the (recent) "deltas" to shoot for here in Marshall:  Dec '08 had 28", and Dec '00 had 40" (a huge Dec!)

 

 

LOL, well I did, and I didn't at the same time since (in '78) I was a kid growing up in SEMI not living here in Marshall.    But yeah, Marshall got at least 22" vs. KFNT back home in SEMI with 9". Extreme SEMI got really screwed by the warm tongue on that one with mixed precip really cutting totals. Nonetheless, I've seen folks post that even in northern burbs of Detroit it took them 3 days to get home. That's how hard that storm hit and it was so rare you can't hardly describe it now unless you have 1st hand experiences. I saw one woman's post from OH somewhere. She fell into a drift trying to find the door of her apt building (like 15 feet from) and later was scared that she felt maybe she wouldn't find the door and just be stuck there and die. True life-threatening winter storms like that one are (thankfully for the unsuspecting) rare and thus legendary.  

First off believe it or not in the last hour Heavy Snow was reported at both Grand Rapids and Marshal.  Of course that was Grand Rapids and Marshal Minnesota.  Here is some more information on the 1978 storm. Before the storm there was 7” of snow on the ground here in GR during the storm 2.3” fell on January 25^th before midnight then 16.1” fell on the 26^th and yet another 2.3 fell on the 27^th for a total of 19.2” and there was 27” on the ground at the end. Over in Muskegon there also was 7” on the ground before the storm and there 2.6” fell on the 25^th then 21.7” fell on the 26^th with 5.7” more on the 27^th and yet 3.8” more on the 28^th for a total of 35.1” and they reported 33” on the ground after. At Lansing they had 5” on the ground before 2.7” fell on the 25^th 15.1” on the 26^th and 1.5” on the 27^th for a storm total of 19.3” and they had 24” on the ground. On the east side of the state Detroit had 5” on the ground with 1.9” on the 25^th 7.8” (with snow and sleet) on the 26^th and 0.4” on the 27^th for a storm total of 10.1” they had 15” on the ground In Flint they had 5” on the ground with 1.0” on the 25^th 7.3” on the 26^th and 1.6” on the 27^th for a total of 10.3” and 14” on the ground. In Saginaw I do not have the day to day totals but the storm total there was 22.5” and they had 31” on the ground. At both Detroit and Flint the January 1978 storm was NOT even in the top 25 biggest snow storms at either location.  

[westMJim]

With one more much above average day to go yet this month the departure here in Grand Rapids is now at +6.9° Right now it is sunny and the temperature here at my house is 64° At GRR the latest reading is 60° and up at Traverse City its 64° For the month here at Grand Rapids we now have had 8 clear days 7 partly cloudy days and only 2 cloudy days. Today should end up as partly cloudy day (maybe clear) No matter how this month ends it will still be above average temperature wise and sunnier than average here in West Michigan.

[jaster220]

First off believe it or not in the last hour Heavy Snow was reported at both Grand Rapids and Marshall.  Of course that was Grand Rapids and Marshal Minnesota.  Here is some more information on the 1978 storm. Before the storm there was 7” of snow on the ground here in GR during the storm 2.3” fell on January 25^th before midnight then 16.1” fell on the 26^th and yet another 2.3 fell on the 27^th for a total of 19.2” and there was 27” on the ground at the end. Over in Muskegon there also was 7” on the ground before the storm and there 2.6” fell on the 25^th then 21.7” fell on the 26^th with 5.7” more on the 27^th and yet 3.8” more on the 28^th for a total of 35.1” and they reported 33” on the ground after. At Lansing they had 5” on the ground before 2.7” fell on the 25^th 15.1” on the 26^th and 1.5” on the 27^th for a storm total of 19.3” and they had 24” on the ground. On the east side of the state Detroit had 5” on the ground with 1.9” on the 25^th 7.8” (with snow and sleet) on the 26^th and 0.4” on the 27^th for a storm total of 10.1” they had 15” on the ground In Flint they had 5” on the ground with 1.0” on the 25^th 7.3” on the 26^th and 1.6” on the 27^th for a total of 10.3” and 14” on the ground. In Saginaw I do not have the day to day totals but the storm total there was 22.5” and they had 31” on the ground. At both Detroit and Flint the January 1978 storm was NOT even in the top 25 biggest snow storms at either location.  

 

 Nice job, got me with that one     ..possibly tomorrow's obs for us??

 

To the underlined: True as far as new snowfall, but that event on top of snowpack more than made up for that fact. Yes, '67 trumped it overall but '78's winds, extreme cold, and longevity (as well as covering the entire state vs. a fairly narrow stip of SMI) rank impacts in top 5 if not top 2 LOL.

[OKwx2k4]

New Euro parallel weeklies finally came in. After the transient cooldowns this week and into 1st week of December it's wall-to-wall cold all the way to January.

[jaster220]

New Euro parallel weeklies finally came in. After the transient cooldowns this week and into 1st week of December it's wall-to-wall cold all the way to January.

 

Glad I got on the budget plan for my nat gas!! 

[Tom]

12z GEFS seeing a trend for a storm during this period to close out November...cutting it close to my departure out of PHX on the 30th!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016111812/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_23.png