November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

Need fuel for the Night Shift later. Here's the dilemma. I want pizza. I only see Totinos. Growing up when I was a kid that was a treat, and now they taste like fresh dog shit. I do need model riding fuel though.... Resorting to a sandwich at this point would be depressing like admitting defeat to the possible crummy 00z EURO/EPS trends. Cereal is okay, but feels like a heck of a compromise. Apple slices? I may as well strap on a helmet and get a coloring book. This is not too dissimilar to when I was in Bi-mart yesterday. Friggin New Kids on the Block was playing over the PA. I felt like I was being thrown off a bridge. I was about to end it right there next to the pillows and almonds. Just have to keep trudging on. Better model runs ahead.

[Kolk1604]

06z NBM (out to Monday, 10pm) 

[MWG]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Need fuel for the Night Shift later. Here's the dilemma. I want pizza. I only see Totinos. Growing up when I was a kid that was a treat, and now they taste like fresh dog . I do need model riding fuel though.... Resorting to a sandwich at this point would be depressing like admitting defeat to the possible crummy 00z EURO/EPS trends. Cereal is okay, but feels like a heck of a compromise. Apple slices? I may as well strap on a helmet and get a coloring book. This is not too dissimilar to when I was in Bi-mart yesterday. Friggin New Kids on the Block was playing over the PA. I felt like I was being thrown off a bridge. I was about to end it right there next to the pillows and almonds. Just have to keep trudging on. Better model runs ahead.

The only time we go to Bimart is to get our fishing lic lol!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MWG said:

The only time we go to Bimart is to get our fishing lic lol!

That's where I always get mine as well, along with P-line, Stoneflies, Adams flies, ya know fishing stuff. All kinds of stuff. They got it all!

6z GFS in 1 hour 24 minutes

I hope the GFS holds steady and doesn't move to a possible solution of shoving the arctic trough off the BC Coast. No bueno on that. NOPE!

[Kolk1604]

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

 

That's not bad I suppose. Assuming this is with offshore flow I am always 3-5F colder than the airport which drops my high temps further. Also, in that pattern temperatures always level off around 2:45 PM and fall quickly after. Icy cold. @Kolk1604 can you please also post The Dalles?

[Kolk1604]

[Cold Snap]

It’s good to see that the EPS is still holding on to the cold temps while the GEFS seems to be on a little warming trend. It’s usually the other way around.

[Nov1985]

Latest CFS goes out past xmas already...

[Gradient Keeper]

6 NAM HR12 (Past 12 runs)

[The Blob]

29 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I'll take #50 please for PDX

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS persistent low level cold. Day 5.5+ The Gorge and Columbia Basin are in the freezer to the end of the run and probably beyond. Very impressive. Assuming that means a lot of cold east winds for PDX. If so, I won't even reach freezing here I'm always 3-5F colder than the airport in this kind of pattern. Models nearly always do not handle cold pools of this magnitude very well, so I would bank on temperatures in PDX metro and Gorge being even colder than this.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

The good news is that the SE ridge looks to maintain for the foreseeable future.

I actually really like the look of the EPS late in the run. Plenty of high latitude blocking. Lots of potential there.

The eps was better than I expected. 

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

00z EPS persistent low level cold. Day 5.5+ The Gorge and Columbia Basin are in the freezer to the end of the run and probably beyond. Very impressive. Assuming that means a lot of cold east winds for PDX. If so, I won't even reach freezing here I'm always 3-5F colder than the airport in this kind of pattern. Models nearly always do not handle cold pools of this magnitude very well, so I would bank on temperatures in PDX metro and Gorge being even colder than this.

Always nice having outflow in these situations

[Cold Snap]

Currently at 42. Looks like I could clock in another day with over an inch of rain tomorrow. Would be the 2nd one in the past week.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z NAM Hr 78 (Past 2 runs) A few notches further west with the first trough. Yep, we are now into notch season. It may not mean much who knows.

Here's a fun fact though. If you watch The Karate Kid backwards it's a story about a karate champion who moves back to New Jersey and becomes a total pussy. 6z GFS in 17 minutes!

 

[Guest administrator]

Get your forks, winter is canceled. @umadbrohad the last laugh.

[Gradient Keeper]

33.6 and the east wind has ended.

[Gradient Keeper]

Don't look at the 6z Hasselhoff.... Yikes.

[Gradient Keeper]

NIGHT SHIFT

6z GFS Day 1 (Past 4 runs)

[WeatherGeek2022]

awaiting traditional disappointment

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

[Cold Snap]

06z NAM shows some snow around the puget sound Sunday night. Looks like the temps support it away from the water at least.

[Cold Snap]

Sorry this is a little late but I just wanted to say I’m thankful for being a part of this forum! I can’t wait for the exciting times we have ahead this winter, including next week!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 (Past 4 runs) First cold trough seems to be digging a few notches more.

[Gradient Keeper]

No impact on temps it seems. lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs) A lot warmer 850s through Day 5.5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 850s

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Looks like a slider developing near Juneau

850s

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5

[ShawniganLake]

Perfection   

 

 

[Requiem]

Like how the block isn't degrading this run-- yet. 

[Gradient Keeper]

The block looks AMAZING Day 6+

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Bitter Gorge winds!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 850s

[Gradient Keeper]

No idea if it's going to pan out, but this is a great run Day 4.5+!!!!