November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Since the GFS updated to scrambled porn on HBO a few years ago, the WRF has become unusable when it comes to CAA in the mid/long range.

CAA?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It has several days of really cold weather.  What more can you ask this early in the season.

24-36" of snow, temps 3-19, and 65-90mph easterly Gorge winds.

12z NAM in 6 hours 23 minutes

[Kolk1604]

Day 5... getting closer to saving the night 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

CAA?

Cold Air Advection.

[Bueryan]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

You mean like this? IF this were to ever somehow pan out this would be the coldest I can recall. Ever.

Expect a bold statement from Cliff Mass soon...

[snow_wizard]

It never ceases to amaze me how fast people are willing to freak out when one run of one model doesn't go perfectly.  In reality the ECMWF still gives Seattle snow and a few days of cold temps.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block needs to be --> a few notches to the east.

[The Blob]

I really hope it does snow, I could use a few days off work.

[Kolk1604]

More of Day 5 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

CAA?

Cold air advection

[Kolk1604]

Day 6 

[Bueryan]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It never ceases to amaze me how fast people are willing to freak out when one run of one model doesn't go perfectly.  In reality the ECMWF still gives Seattle snow and a few days of cold temps.

I'm not trolling I just think changes within 7 days are more likely than snow maps at hour 240

[snow_wizard]

One thing I'll say is if we meet in the middle between the ECMWF and GFS there will be a lot of happy people on here.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Block needs to be --> a few notches to the east.

It's good as is for SEA but down your way that could be true.

[Gradient Keeper]

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Kinda got a 2020 feel

January 2020?  There was some pretty wicked low level cold with that. I think it’s unlikely we see a Fraser outflow as cold as that with this setup.  Maybe it will push further south but the Fraser valley was pretty frigid in January 2020

[Kolk1604]

Day 7... looks like it's moving east to me 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

I'm not trolling I just think changes within 7 days are more likely than snow maps at hour 240

I never trust snowfall maps at 240.  This thing is relatively close now.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7... looks like it's moving east to me 

Forget it.  People are ready to give up already.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7... looks like it's moving east to me 

Same issues as the ECMWF Op... Maybe bit colder.

[Phishy Wx]

zzzzzz

[snow_wizard]

The EPS shows no signs of the trouble the operational shows around day 8 or 9.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Same issues as the ECMWF Op... Maybe bit colder.

Almost day 8. Looks way better to me 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS shows no signs of the trouble the operational shows around day 8 or 9.

Not breaking down the ridge? That's good. 12z was similar.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Almost day 8. Looks way better to me 

How do 850s look?

[snow_wizard]

My final word for the night is chill out people.  It's going to be fine.

[Kolk1604]

Day 8 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

My final word for the night is chill out people.  It's going to be fine.

For Washington, probably, but hey stay tuned a lot of tense model riding ahead!

12z GFS in 8 hours 7 minutes

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Almost day 8. Looks way better to me 

Better than GFS too.

[Phishy Wx]

that is a pretty solid SE ridge.  my inlaws where complaining about a Thanksgiving in the 60s today and getting warmer next week

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 8 

Not cold enough 850s. Dang it. We really need the polar lobe to dig south through BC, not off the coast.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS spits out MUCH colder surface temps than the operational days 9 and 10.  Offshore pressure gradients and chilly 850s.

[Nov1985]

EPS 850T (Mean + P10-90) for next Saturday. That's significantly less pullback than the 00Z GEFS.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not cold enough 850s. Dang it. We really need the polar lobe to dig south through BC, not off the coast.

I hope you're kidding.

[Kolk1604]

Day 9

[Gradient Keeper]

Wondering where all the cold air went on the ECMWF/EPS. It is NOWHERE close to as cold as previous runs. The PV not phasing with the arctic trough funneling bitter air south? or just the fact its digging too much off the BC coast.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

that is a pretty solid SE ridge.  my inlaws where complaining about a Thanksgiving in the 60s today and getting warmer next week

SE ridge is always the extra insurance.

[Phishy Wx]

hitting the sack, mixed signals, we'll see what tomorrow brings.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Day 9

And that is with offshore flow and cold surface temps.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

hitting the sack, mixed signals, we'll see what tomorrow brings.

All looks cold to me with the exception of the end of the ECMWF operational.