November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Have you been paying attention the past 30 months?

Yes, painfully. :/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes, painfully. :/

 

At this point I have kind of resigned myself to endless torching...

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice warm low of 40 this morning here.

[westcoastexpat]

Maybe December and January both. I like the winters where December delivers a couple of quick hitters and then we get blasted in January. We shall see.

That would be ideal but I am not very optimistic about January.

[stuffradio]

Models seem to keep dragging the torch out longer and longer...

I'm more concerned about the endless water than torching. I will be at 9-10" of rain before the 16th.

[TT-SEA]

I'm more concerned about the endless water than torching. I will be at 9-10" of rain before the 16th.

 

 

Looks like a surprisingly dry week for November down here.   This is the wettest time of the year.   Any time its not raining its a blessing.  

[stuffradio]

Looks like a surprisingly dry week for November down here.   This is the wettest time of the year.   Any time its not raining its a blessing.  

It's not that it's wet in November that I'm talking about it, it's that I would be reaching ~75% of the total monthly average which is over 12" in less than half the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not worried about drought at the moment...Average October/November rainfall total here is just under 17". So far I am at about 19". 2" in the bank already for November, one wet week toward the end of the month could easily take me up toward average. 

[TT-SEA]

Not worried about drought at the moment...Average October/November rainfall total here is just under 17". So far I am at about 19". 2" in the bank already for November, one wet week toward the end of the month could easily take me up toward average. 

 

 

Drought is on very high on my list of concerns.  

[Jesse]

Ensembles trending warmer in the long range.

[ShawniganLake]

Ensembles trending warmer in the long range.

Yep, pretty uninspiring stuff, even in the long range. 

[Jesse]

Yep, pretty uninspiring stuff, even in the long range.

The Euro is trying.

[Jesse]

PDX's November record high could be in jeopardy tomorrow, IMO.

[Kayla]

PDX's November record high could be in jeopardy tomorrow, IMO.

 

You really thinking 73+ tomorrow?? Going to be hard pressed with pretty stale low levels. ECMWF and EPS only going for 66 and 67 respectfully tomorrow. 

 

68.

[Jesse]

You really thinking 73+ tomorrow?? Going to be hard pressed with pretty stale low levels. ECMWF and EPS only going for 66 and 67 respectfully tomorrow.

 

68.

Depends on a lot of factors, but I don't think it's entirely out of the question.

 

Impressive airmass and good mixing ahead of the shortwave. Although the fact that it looks to be an east wind instead of a south wind may mitigate things.

[BLI snowman]

PDX's November record high could be in jeopardy tomorrow, IMO.

 

Yeah.... no.

[Jesse]

Yeah.... no.

No....yeah?

[Timmy Supercell]

You really thinking 73+ tomorrow?? Going to be hard pressed with pretty stale low levels. ECMWF and EPS only going for 66 and 67 respectfully tomorrow. 

 

68.

 

80. And it's gonna be great.

[BLI snowman]

No....yeah?

 

74 is exceedingly likely. In Chico.

[Deweydog]

Models seem to keep dragging the torch out longer and longer...

 

Seems like we've been running remarkably warm since you returned from your spirit quest.  

 

Might have to take one for the team...

[Deweydog]

So what if there's no warning shot?  

 

Should we panic?  

[catnip]

So what if there's no warning shot?  

 

Should we panic?  

 

No Warning Shot = Winter Cancel!

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Have you been paying attention the past 30 months?

 

Two of the past four months have been below normal at PDX.

 

DOES THIS MEAN NOTHING?!?

[Front Ranger]

So what if there's no warning shot?  

 

Should we panic?  

 

No. It just means the big shot will come without warning, leading to many more casualties.

[IbrChris]

I'm more concerned about the endless water than torching. I will be at 9-10" of rain before the 16th.

Hasn't been too wet down here in PDX...nice change from October.

[BLI snowman]

No. It just means the big shot will come without warning, leading to many more casualties.

 

I think our unseasonable highs in the mid 70s tomorrow could prove fairly trying for the local elderly. 

[IbrChris]

You really thinking 73+ tomorrow?? Going to be hard pressed with pretty stale low levels. ECMWF and EPS only going for 66 and 67 respectfully tomorrow. 

 

68.

Model data is mostly 67-71 on today's 12z runs.

[Jesse]

Model data is mostly 67-71 on today's 12z runs.

There has also been an overachieving theme lately.

 

No one was calling close to 70 last Thursday.

[IbrChris]

There has also been an overachieving theme lately.

 

No one was calling close to 70 last Thursday.

Yeah I'm not arguing that 70 is impossible tomorrow. A few spots might get even warmer...PDX doesn't tend to do great with easterlies in Nov-Feb though.

[Jesse]

Yeah I'm not arguing that 70 is impossible tomorrow. A few spots might get even warmer...PDX doesn't tend to do great with easterlies in Nov-Feb though.

Very true. Could get pretty ridiculous in locations away from any gap wind though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very true. Could get pretty ridiculous in locations away from any gap wind though.

 

I feel like taking the afternoon off tomorrow may be a very tempting idea. 

[Front Ranger]

I think our unseasonable highs in the mid 70s tomorrow could prove fairly trying for the local elderly. 

 

I fear it will lull some of the rain/snow birds into staying for the winter. Then Snowmageddon 2016-17 hits...

[Front Ranger]

Very true. Could get pretty ridiculous in locations away from any gap wind though.

 

Hillsboro has hit 78 in November (1959, analog). Oregon City hit 75 in Nov 2010 (analog).

[BLI snowman]

Hillsboro has hit 78 in November (1959, analog). Oregon City hit 75 in Nov 2010 (analog).

 

That Hillsboro number is definitely bunk. 74 is their warmest reliable number from November.

[Timmy Supercell]

If Klamath Falls can get 70+ in November, I don't see an issue with the 78 in Hillsboro. But what do I know....

 

KLMT List of 70+ days in November

 

11/01/1949 - 72

11/02/1949 - 72

11/04/2009 - 70

11/05/1980 - 70

11/11/1996 - 72

11/13/1995 - 71

[MossMan]

Galloping Gertie collapsed on this date in 1940!

In other news...it's not raining!

[TT-SEA]

Nice afternoon... partly sunny now and 64.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice afternoon... partly sunny now and 64.

51F here. We have been missing this September like warmth.

 

Looks like Seatac just broke the daily record from 2008. Things are lining up for December.

[Kayla]

There has also been an overachieving theme lately.

 

No one was calling close to 70 last Thursday.

 

Not really in the short term forecasts. Looks like even today is going to end up 2-4º below modeled forecasts.

 

Doesn't bode well for tomorrows 74º...

 

#itsnovember7th

[HighlandExperience]

Rich Marriot posted this graph for snowfall at SeaTac. Pretty depressing if you ask me. He thinks this winter will be Good for snowfall though.