snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Joe Bastardi ignored the JMA monthlies and posted on twitter a CFS run that showed east coast troughing with snow for December. He is unquestionably worse than I've ever been. His selective use of favorable CFS runs is hysterical. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Who's staying up for 6z GFS?Only 1 hour 36 minutes away! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 He is unquestionably worse than I've ever been. His selective use of favorable CFS runs is hysterical.Tweet from @bastardi "west coast will torch all winter. All indices show east in icebox by early December. " 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Tweet from @bastardi "west coast will torch all winter. All indices show east in icebox by early December. "LMAO :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Two degree diurnal swing at PDX today. That's hott. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Tweet from @bastardi "west coast will torch all winter. All indices show east in icebox by early December. " Nooo....tell me it's not so. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Some improvements with the 00z ECMWF Actually significant improvement. Looks like three chilly troughs in the next 10 days. At day 10 there's a nice Aleutian ridge. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Actually significant improvement. Looks like three chilly troughs in the next 10 days. At day 10 there's a nice Aleutian ridge.True. 500mb pattern at day 10 does look promising. Possible building SE US ridge too. 00z WRFTonight's run shows a few things. First, quite gusty, strong east wind on Friday and Saturday. Next, and what is really nice to see is colder air finally shows up over Alaska, Yukon, and throughout the Canadian Prairies. Not truly bitter air, but as we are nearing mid-November this is what we should be seeing for crying out loud. It looks like to me as we end November the cold air to our north could be there in large supply and would be poised to drop southward through British Columbia/Alberta should the 500mb pattern offshore become favorable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Holy smokes. Could the PV actually get taken down by Thanksgiving? http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now. Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 There's just no way you say Cowboys are not a contender at 8-1 and 8 game winning streak. It's how there winning games by pure dominating with there offense. They will be hard to stop in the playoffs and are the team to beat, steelers came close but ended up losing. As for you're last sentence i 100% agree, Romo with his experience and how good this offense is can take them too a Super Bowl. I expect a Seattle Cowboys show down in the playoffs with Romo playing. Will be epic, and I really don't buy that the Cowboys have been playing easy teams. Giants, Eagles, Steelers and Redskins are not easy games/wins. At the end of the day good chance Seahawks Cowboys will link up and it would be a great football game to watch.Browns, Bengals, Niners, Bears, Packers... I stayed up for the 6z. Not staying up for the 12z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 6z GFS was pretty nice. Any further amplification and we would see a nice cold shot. 12z GFS in 4 hours 4 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now. Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this: What years featured a very weak Nina and +PDO? I know that both 1983-84 and 1995-96 fall under that category. They have been really popular analogs for this winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Very loud thunder here just now. That was a surprise when it happened. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 17 days now with over 1/2" of rain since October 1st. Some cooler air starting to filter in now. Temp down to 49 after a midnight high of 54. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Should have our first freeze tomorrow night... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 About 1.20" of rain overnight in Seattle. Surprised by that amount as it was somewhat clear skies when going to bed around 11pm and wasn't raining this morning when I got up at 6:30. Figured it didn't rain much last night but surprised when I looked online. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 I really hope the radar down here works for our ultra mega snowstorms in December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Legit classic +PDO look in the NPAC now. Strong GOA vortex + boreal winter re-emergence = this: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Actually looks quite different than last year at this time across the North Pacific, though. There was hardly any cool SSTA to be found. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 The North Pacific SSTA pattern is pretty unusual this year. I'd say the closest matches are 2003 and 1998. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year. Last winter sucked 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Cant wait to get a real weather station someday, the amount of rain since last evening up here has been insane! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Actually looks quite different than last year at this time across the North Pacific, though. There was hardly any cool SSTA to be found. anomnight.11.16.2015.gifAt very least proof that not all +PDO regimes are created equally or even arrived upon in the same way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year. Yeah I had 2" a year ago today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Looking like our first pass level snow of the season in the Cascades starting later today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 PDX may have spiked to 60 this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Yeah I had 2" a year ago today. I had no accumulating snow last winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 I had no accumulating snow last winter. I had around 12", but I live at 1600'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 At very least proof that not all +PDO regimes are created equally or even arrived upon in the same way. Right. And I think it's evident of a North Pacific pattern still in transition. I do not expect that we'll have +1 and higher PDO values all through the winter like we did last year. Much more likely that we see at least one month go negative. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Maybe it is just me but I am starting to see a really decent setup around hour 288 and beyond on todays 12z GFS (la la land). Very nice northerly flow that allows cool to very cool air to flow due south over the pacific into PNW. Decent ridge location and more. I like this setup mainly due to the fact the cold is further west, prevents it from sliding east of the mountains and allows low pressure to develop and slide right into our area. Not bad for baby steps. I feel it may only become more promising in the coming weeks... There will be some push back and delay as always. Hour 288 Fantasy Hour 384 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 One year ago this morning... I forgot that it snowed this early last year. Does your son ever wear long pants? My 13 year old cousin wore shorts in Chicago last Christmas during a huge 5" sleet storm. Something about teenage boys. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Maybe it is just me but I am starting to see a really decent setup around hour 288 and beyond on todays 12z GFS (la la land). Very nice northerly flow that allows cool to very cool air to flow due south over the pacific into PNW. Decent ridge location and more. I like this setup mainly due to the fact the cold is further west, prevents it from sliding east of the mountains and allows low pressure to develop and slide right into our area. Not bad for baby steps. I feel it may only become more promising in the coming weeks... There will be some push back and delay as always. Hour 288Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.18.20 AM.png Fantasy Hour 384Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.19.16 AM.png Similar setup being shown on the ECMWF at hour 240 as well. Lots of cold to very cold air in Northern BC sliding south on the 12z runs today. Definitely a promising sign for the end of the month and into the beginning of December. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Maybe it is just me but I am starting to see a really decent setup around hour 288 and beyond on todays 12z GFS (la la land). Very nice northerly flow that allows cool to very cool air to flow due south over the pacific into PNW. Decent ridge location and more. I like this setup mainly due to the fact the cold is further west, prevents it from sliding east of the mountains and allows low pressure to develop and slide right into our area. Not bad for baby steps. I feel it may only become more promising in the coming weeks... There will be some push back and delay as always. Hour 288Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.18.20 AM.png Fantasy Hour 384Screen Shot 2016-11-15 at 10.19.16 AM.pngWhat's with all the white space/missing data on tropical tidbits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 What's with all the white space/missing data on tropical tidbits? The terrain is at or above 850mb or ~4,800ft MSL. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 It would be cool if today was our last 60 degree day until mid-March. #realwintersmatter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 It would be cool if today was our last 60 degree day until mid-March. #realwintersmatterI would only agree if we shortly get lots of snow and not 33 F rain. The ECMWF deterministic gives me some snow in less than 10 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Does your son ever wear long pants? My 13 year old cousin wore shorts in Chicago last Christmas during a huge 5" sleet storm. Something about teenage boys. Only wears pants when skiing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 The terrain is at or above 850mb or ~4,800ft MSL. I think that is new though, because in the past it was still shaded. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 15, 2016 Report Share Posted November 15, 2016 Definitely the most promising Euro run yet. Slowly but surely, more cold air is seeping over to our side of the globe. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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