November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z GFS in 3 hours 20 minutes

00z CMC/GEM in 4 hours 20 minutes

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 37 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah for what's it worth 18z gives PDX widespread 2-3" of snowfall on the 30th. First of many teases to come.

High 34-36, calm winds or light easterly surface flow. 850s -3c. Close, depends on when moisture occurs too is it at day or night. It's definitely something to keep an eye and root for. As there really is no cold air source to draw from I'd like to see 850s -5c or colder though

[Gradient Keeper]

I've been keeping an eye on the Juneau, Anchorage, and Fairbanks NWS AFDs... I see Juneau NWS is the first to mention pattern change in the long term discussion. It's pretty vague. I always read their discussions as what happens upstream from us plays heavily into our weather mid/late November through February. I will certainly post anything that's encouraging for us.

[westcoastexpat]

I'd say the big negative right now is that the PV favors cold in Siberia for December, with a strong Pacific jet -- I wouldn't be surprised to see a weaker version of November replay itself. I'm hoping to see a change soon.

[crf450ish]

I've been keeping an eye on the Juneau, Anchorage, and Fairbanks NWS AFDs... I see Juneau NWS is the first to mention pattern change in the long term discussion. It's pretty vague. I always read their discussions as what happens upstream from us plays heavily into our weather mid/late November through February. I will certainly post anything that's encouraging for us.

Interesting. I like it.

[crf450ish]

Where is everybody?

[Timmy]

Where is everybody?

Playing in the snow

[snow_wizard]

The 18z continues to look promising. The very end of the run appears to be show the beginning of an even colder scenario than what week two will have in store.

[snow_wizard]

I'd say the big negative right now is that the PV favors cold in Siberia for December, with a strong Pacific jet -- I wouldn't be surprised to see a weaker version of November replay itself. I'm hoping to see a change soon.

I totally disagree. Dec isn't going to look anything like Nov IMO.

[MossMan]

Where is everybody?

Everyone is online shopping for snow shovels, snow blowers, new SUV's with 4wd and traction control, and ice skates for all the frozen lakes coming up.

[westcoastexpat]

I totally disagree. Dec isn't going to look anything like Nov IMO.

 

The current Pacific pattern is not going to deliver any cold air that isn't more than transient.

[Gradient Keeper]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had a great last couple of days traveling around the NW. Took in some high winds at Crown Point on Friday morning. Hit some snow between Ellensburg and Leavenworth then camped up Icicle Creek. Snowed most of the night, but didn't stick. Went up to Winthrop Saturday morning. There was a dusting from Twisp up to Wintrop. Then went over Loup Pass to Omak. There was about 2-3" of snow on the pass with snow covered roads. Saw Grand Coulee Dam for the first time and drove down through Tri-Cities and Pendleton to the North Fork John Day river where we camped for the night. Woke up to 33 degrees and frost. It was snowing on Santiam Pass coming back . 

[TT-SEA]

Phil... it looks cold and windy at the Redskins game right now!   

 

Is summer winding down there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The current Pacific pattern is not going to deliver any cold air that isn't more than transient.

 

I agree. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Where is everybody?

Waiting for something more than what used to be called a typical winter outlook. If the models get more serious this place will be busy.

[Gradient Keeper]

The current Pacific pattern is not going to deliver any cold air that isn't more than transient.

Yeah, even the colder runs we've seen the best we might manage is the cooler maritime air mass or backdoor colder air via Gorge. The other scenario is if the ridge moves inland overhead we might see a Columbia Basin cold pool develop possibly modest fake cold with east wind event. Even if the ridge amplifies well up through Alaska the pattern is just too progressive. However, a few of the past GFS/ECMWF runs have shown much weaker energy moving off Asia and Kamchatka. Another promising sign are the ensembles 500mb anomalies after day 9-10 shows the positive anomaly backing off retrograding to around 160 W/Western Alaska. I see a lot of model disagreement after day 7-8, lots of volatility. The Ensembles have at least been more consistent past 2 days.

 

Had a great last couple of days traveling around the NW. Took in some high winds at Crown Point on Friday morning. Hit some snow between Ellensburg and Leavenworth then camped up Icicle Creek. Snowed most of the night, but didn't stick. Went up to Winthrop Saturday morning. There was a dusting from Twisp up to Wintrop. Then went over Loup Pass to Omak. There was about 2-3" of snow on the pass with snow covered roads. Saw Grand Coulee Dam for the first time and drove down through Tri-Cities and Pendleton to the North Fork John Day river where we camped for the night. Woke up to 33 degrees and frost. It was snowing on Santiam Pass coming back . 

Sounds enjoyable. Any fishing?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, even the colder runs we've seen the best we might manage is the cooler maritime air mass or backdoor colder air via Gorge. The other scenario is if the ridge moves inland overhead we might see a Columbia Basin cold pool develop possibly modest fake cold with east wind event. Even if the ridge amplifies well up through Alaska the pattern is just too progressive. However, a few of the past GFS/ECMWF runs have shown much weaker energy moving off Asia and Kamchatka. Another promising sign are the ensembles 500mb anomalies after day 9-10 shows the positive anomaly backing off retrograding to around 160 W/Western Alaska. I see a lot of model disagreement after day 7-8, lots of volatility. The Ensembles have at least been more consistent past 2 days.

 

Sounds enjoyable. Any fishing?

 

No fishing, we were kind of moving from place to place. It's fun camping this time of year. There were a few other people out in the woods, but not many. 

[crf450ish]

Had a great last couple of days traveling around the NW. Took in some high winds at Crown Point on Friday morning. Hit some snow between Ellensburg and Leavenworth then camped up Icicle Creek. Snowed most of the night, but didn't stick. Went up to Winthrop Saturday morning. There was a dusting from Twisp up to Wintrop. Then went over Loup Pass to Omak. There was about 2-3" of snow on the pass with snow covered roads. Saw Grand Coulee Dam for the first time and drove down through Tri-Cities and Pendleton to the North Fork John Day river where we camped for the night. Woke up to 33 degrees and frost. It was snowing on Santiam Pass coming back . 

Tent camping? 

[ShawniganLake]

I'd say the big negative right now is that the PV favors cold in Siberia for December, with a strong Pacific jet -- I wouldn't be surprised to see a weaker version of November replay itself. I'm hoping to see a change soon.

So the 2008 analogue has gone out the window in the last 4 hours?

[snow_wizard]

The current Pacific pattern is not going to deliver any cold air that isn't more than transient.

The -NAO is going to help us with that.

[snow_wizard]

So the 2008 analogue has gone out the window in the last 4 hours?

Short shelf life.

[snow_wizard]

Waiting for something more than what used to be called a typical winter outlook. If the models get more serious this place will be busy.

I still think the models have looked better than people are giving them credit for. Not sure what people are expecting. I've always thought we would ease into this.

[westcoastexpat]

So the 2008 analogue has gone out the window in the last 4 hours?

 

Let's play nice. I know you have some bizarre and unfounded issue with me, but let's try and keep it contained please!

 

Based on the long range on the model suite, it has a 2008 look. But that's a model outlook at one run time.

 

However, based on actual, real, tangible, recorded data for right now, the PV split is not in North America's favor for lasting cold. That's all I'm saying. There's two sides to every coin.

[westcoastexpat]

I still think the models have looked better than people are giving them credit for. Not sure what people are expecting. I've always thought we would ease into this.

 

I think a lot of people would prefer to have the highlights of winter be in December, leading up to the holiday period. To have that be the best of winter, the Pacific needs to turn itself around YESTERDAY.

[Phil]

Phil... it looks cold and windy at the Redskins game right now!

 

Is summer winding down there?

Lol, yeah I guess so. Mid/upper 30s for most of today, so an overall "meh" in the cold department. It's been windy as hell though (a few gusts up to 70mph in the area).

[Deweydog]

Nice/horrible to see the anomalies get back into a respectable territory today.

[Phil]

Phil... it looks cold and windy at the Redskins game right now!

 

Is summer winding down there?

Also had our first snowflakes of the year today, so that's a huge win after a hellishly hot year.

[ShawniganLake]

Let's play nice. I know you have some bizarre and unfounded issue with me, but let's try and keep it contained please!

 

Based on the long range on the model suite, it has a 2008 look. But that's a model outlook at one run time.

 

However, based on actual, real, tangible, recorded data for right now, the PV split is not in North America's favor for lasting cold. That's all I'm saying. There's two sides to every coin.

I have no issue and generally play very nice. Just curious where your line of thinking is taking us. Reading what you posted this afternoon and it's difficult to figure out where you think we are going. 2008 like or something similar to November. It seemed pretty contradictory.

[Phil]

Let's play nice. I know you have some bizarre and unfounded issue with me, but let's try and keep it contained please!

 

Based on the long range on the model suite, it has a 2008 look. But that's a model outlook at one run time.

 

However, based on actual, real, tangible, recorded data for right now, the PV split is not in North America's favor for lasting cold. That's all I'm saying. There's two sides to every coin.

First, the PV split lasts maybe 5 days. Second, I don't think that's the reason Eurasia is favored for cold. It's the Pacific/WHEM tropospheric pattern that's to blame.

 

The nature in which the PV is perturbed is reflective of the wave driving and resonant synchronicities that forced it. The split itself doesn't determine where the cold will end up.

[westcoastexpat]

I have no issue and generally play very nice. Just curious where your line of thinking is taking us. Reading what you posted this afternoon and it's difficult to figure out where you think we are going. 2008 like or something similar to November. It seemed pretty contradictory.

 

One statement was about the look of the long range model suite -- it looked like December 2008.

 

The other was about the current state of the environment, and how things will have to change in order for that potential to be realized.

 

Not contradictory in the slightest. Talking about two different things. One is an observation, another is an analysis based on the current state.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

Here we gooo!!!!!

 

Feel free to play along
Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015092718&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197
North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=471
North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016111618&fh=6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tent camping? 

 

I slept in my car. I have a Forester, I fold the seats down and put a memory foam pad down. Works perfectly this time of year. 

[Deweydog]

Had a great last couple of days traveling around the NW. Took in some high winds at Crown Point on Friday morning. Hit some snow between Ellensburg and Leavenworth then camped up Icicle Creek. Snowed most of the night, but didn't stick. Went up to Winthrop Saturday morning. There was a dusting from Twisp up to Wintrop. Then went over Loup Pass to Omak. There was about 2-3" of snow on the pass with snow covered roads. Saw Grand Coulee Dam for the first time and drove down through Tri-Cities and Pendleton to the North Fork John Day river where we camped for the night. Woke up to 33 degrees and frost. It was snowing on Santiam Pass coming back .

Omak!!!

 

My homeland.

[Jesse]

I slept in my car. I have a Forester, I fold the seats down and put a memory foam pad down. Works perfectly this time of year.

We have the same car.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8-9. Modified arctic air much closer to moving into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Massive 944mb low just south of the Aleutians pushes the ridge eastward. If not for that, we would probably see a nice cold shot via the Gorge.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112100/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge is being shoved inland. Columbia Basin cold pool likely.

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

 

Day 8-9. Modified arctic air much closer to moving into eastern Washington/Columbia Basin. Massive 944mb low just south of the Aleutians pushes the ridge eastward. If not for that, we would probably see a nice cold shot via the Gorge.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112100/gfs_z500_mslp_npac_33.png

Precursor to possible death ridge. I hope not!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ridge is being shoved inland. Columbia Basin cold pool likely.

 

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[Gradient Keeper]

Real chilly PDX eastward Day 9 beyond. Cold for Columbia Basin/eastern Washington. Ridge at 135 W just waiting to retrograde. I know it wants to. It told me.