TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Looks like Tokyo received their first November snowfall in 54 years today. I'm guessing the sprawling cold airmass over Eurasia had something to do with it. I was noticing the uneven distribution of cold air on the ECMWF maps for the Northern Hemisphere. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-NmerJK.png What years do we have a guides for this type situation? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Looks like Tokyo received their first November snowfall in 54 years today. I'm guessing the sprawling cold airmass over Eurasia had something to do with it. Wow! That means it happened in 1962. Jan 1963 had the amazing nation wide cold wave. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 1961 has probably been the most consistent pattern analog the past week. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Well, 00z GFS Day 8-14 Composite Analog isn't bad at all. I expected worse. Quite solid list of years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 1961 has probably been the most consistent pattern analog the past week. I was just thinking the same. Pretty decent winter for us. The main cold was pretty late, but there was a solid cold shot in January. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Not necessarily. As long as things don't go too crazy in December January will still be on the table. 1949, 1956, and 1968 all had solid warning shots in early to mid December. All went on to have great Januaries. I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I was just thinking the same. Pretty decent winter for us. The main cold was pretty late, but there was a solid cold shot in January. Also a nice little event Dec 10-13 that was close to being much better. A lot of places saw sub-freezing highs and some snow with that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one. You just solved the problem. Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 00z ECMWFIt would be real nice to see improvements before day 9-10. Feel free to play along(You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North American view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=namer&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=npac&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112300&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=197 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 The GEM should be deported. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one.Why not December 21st? What did that day do to you!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 You just solved the problem. I'm all about bringing weenies together. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 This day in 2014 I made a post (on Facebook) about temps plummeting for the following week in Abbotsford. 2014 analog match! (Ugh), at least we had snow in February I think, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Why not December 21st? What did that day do to you!? I prefer even numbers. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Colder runs ahead - MBG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I prefer even numbers.That's odd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 High of 49 at PDX! F***ing 50!!!!!!!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 I have an idea. How about to satisfy everyone, we schedule a 3 week long Arctic bonanza running Dec 22 - Jan 14? Awesome December holiday season and awesome January, all rolled into one. Sounds great! We really need something in the Jan 25 to Feb 5 period also. That is actually the time frame for many of our greatest events. Your proposal is a good compromise though. Let's make it happen. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 F***ing 50!!!!!!!!! SEA pulled off a high of 48. I think it will hold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 The GEM should be deported.Build a wall around it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Also a nice little event Dec 10-13 that was close to being much better. A lot of places saw sub-freezing highs and some snow with that. I just saw that as I was checking that winter out a few minutes ago. A couple of events that could have easily been quite impressive, and were in fact pretty solid. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 00z WRF gets just a tad cold in Alaska/Yukon. 925mb temps -27c to -33c. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016112400/images_d1/slp.180.0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Holy crap!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Holy crap!!!!THIS! 00z ECMWF 24 hr rainfall 3.1" for PDX. Imagine how much worse this would be if PWATs were higher. We'd need to build moats a.s.a.p. http://i.imgur.com/vbvNWCx.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 THIS! 00z ECMWF 24 hr rainfall 3.1" for PDX. Imagine how much worse this would be if PWATs were higher. We'd need to build moats a.s.a.p. http://i.imgur.com/vbvNWCx.jpgImagine if it was cold enough to be snow . 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Imagine if it was cold enough to be snow . PDX would be buried several times over. It would be glorious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yuck, it may be time to find another hobby to counter this nothingness. Do I get a green light to blame someone for all this? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 PDX would be buried several times over. It would be glorious.Amen!! Gorton would have to settle for ice fishing. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yuck, it may be time to find another hobby to counter this nothingness. Do I get a green light to blame someone for all this? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.pngYes, you can beat the out of me. I will take one for the team 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Fugly run through day 8 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yuck, it may be time to find another hobby to counter this nothingness. Do I get a green light to blame someone for all this? You act as though you've never seen the models flip flop... give it time young grasshopper Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Day 9-10 things start heading in the right direction. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 You act as though you've never seen the models flip flop... give it time young grasshopper Aside from 2008, when have the models "flip flopped" back in our favour? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Very bitter arctic air sliding south into northern British Columbia, Alberta. Things are priming themselves nicely. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_T850_ak_11.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Day 9-10 things start heading in the right direction. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.pngArctic air heading towards us there at day 10. Looks like the ridge retrogrades favorably in that 12/4 to 12/7 timeframe. Similar to GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Day 9-10 things start heading in the right direction. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016112400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_11.png Yeah, the updated run of the 00z EURO shows a classic retrogression signal starting at around Day 9. The ridge starts to amplify in the sweet spot. We would definitely have Arctic air over the PNW soon after this. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/240/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Arctic air heading towards us there at day 10. Looks like the ridge retrogrades favorably in that 12/4 to 12/7 timeframe. Similar to GFS.Exactly right. Offshore ridge and Aleutian block merge/re-configures somewhere near 160 W. It's coming. Colder runs ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yeah, the updated run of the 00z EURO shows a classic retrogression signal starting at around Day 9. The ridge starts to amplify in the sweet spot. We would definitely have Arctic air over the PNW soon after this. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112400/240/500h_anom.na.pngCLASSIC!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Aside from 2008, when have the models "flip flopped" back in our favour?We're talking about 8+ days out, are you being serious right now? When have the models NOT flip flipped in that range? Often times the models will catch on to a pattern change and advertise it too early, only to have it taken away or pushed back for a few days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 24, 2016 Report Share Posted November 24, 2016 Yes, you can beat the s**t out of me. I will take one for the teamThat's a great team player. 3 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.