BLI snowman Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 IDK how Clark County did, but most of the Central Valley got about 1-3" with that event, but anywhere with any elevation did really well. The hills around Salem got 6-8" as did Stayton and Sublimity which are around 450'. My current location got about 18". https://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2002&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Yeah, I remember there was a deformation zone on the 27th that hit the Salem area hard. We did okay in Clark County, had a quick inch that melted overnight and then followed it up with a couple more inches the next morning that quickly melted. I suspect that there won't be as much juice this go-around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I understand being obsessed with snow, and I even understand having that be a factor when moving. Last 2 years weren't good over this way no matter where you lived. Just frustrating seeing such negative posts coming from a member which I know will do just fine in the end. Posting that we're tracking 500' snow levels and a trace of overruning, especially when members put a lot of time into analyzing the models (DJ in particular), you come off as an a**. Just being honest Well I am up at 3am analyzing them as well, and my 25 years following weather in this climate have taught me not to let my hopes get to high. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The WRF tends to be on the more "realistic" (see: pessimistic) side of things, due to a higher resolution, I believe. I do find that in some instances the WRF underplays things too. It has it's pros and cons. I would think they are using the WRF at this point to confirm their idea that this won't amount to much/too early to tell. If they showed the other models, it wouldn't really fit into their current narrative.Thanks. I wasn't sure if they knew something special about it in this sort of situation that would lend them to trust that model more than any others at this time. I am assuming it is a stand alone model and not pulling from any of the other model ie GFS or ECMWF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 18z in 2 hours 8 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 18z in 2 hours 8 minutes!Edge of my seat 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Edge of my seatHave you seen the drunk uncle yet today? We need to ask him what he will reveal! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I understand being obsessed with snow, and I even understand having that be a factor when moving. Last 2 years weren't good over this way no matter where you lived. Just frustrating seeing such negative posts coming from a member which I know will do just fine in the end. Posting that we're tracking 500' snow levels and a trace of overruning, especially when members put a lot of time into analyzing the models (DJ in particular), you come off as an a**. Just being honestSo would you rather Andrew give false hope? No one pro met is expecting anything other than what he said, and 500' is on the bullish end of them at that. There is a reason they are pros and we are amateurs. They are right more often and aren't easily swayed by the highs of model swings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 6 hours straight of freezing fog and visibility between 0.10 to 0.25 miles. It started in the low 20's, now still below freezing at 30. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Saudi Arabia got snow last week.http://strangesounds.org/2016/11/anomalous-snow-saudi-arabia-desert-videos-pictures.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 So would you rather Andrew give false hope? No one pro met is expecting anything other than what he said, and 500' is on the bullish end of them at that. There is a reason they are pros and we are amateurs. They are right more often and aren't easily swayed by the highs of model swings. I understand why some people may find me overly pessimistic and perhaps my tone does come off this way. I am actually fairly excited for the potential at my location, but with cautious optimism. I respect DJ's passion, I have "know" him for many years on the forums, blogs, and social media platforms and I think he does a great job posting, analyzing, etc... I think SnowWiz is great, and love reading his posts. On the other hand, this pattern really does not have "great" potential...At all. No model is showing anything close to an arctic blast. Yes we could get modified arctic air in north of Seattle or into E. Washington, but there is no real mechanism for delivering serious cold deep into the PNW, even Seattle. The block is transitory, not amplified enough, and way to far west, not to mention it is vertical with no tilt. We talk about 500mb DM heights at 564 for Anchorage when we get blasts here, not even close with this. This pattern has some potential. I have been saying it has the potential to be something like December 1992 or 94' at best case, I think BLI's January 2012 comparison is also a possibility. All three of those events DID produce widespread lowland snow. That is not out of the question, but probably not likely. 5 days out here is what I think is: Likely: Snow levels in the 500-1000' range Sunday into Monday. Some lowland accumulations T-2" north of Seattle. 3-6" of snow for people like Tim, Timmy, and myself. Highs in the 38-43 range Mon-Wed for the major I-5 stations Seattle south, lows at most of the stations in the 28-33 range. If we get a good clear night we could see some cooler lows. If we have a cloudy day with an overrunning type event on the back end we could see cooler highs. Possible but not likely: Snow levels bounce from the valley floors/sea level to 500' Sunday night-Monday. Overnight accumulations possible or in heavier showers Monday. Most areas get T-1", but a few lucky spots get 3-4" close to sea level with heavy precip, a few locations are left out entirely. Tim gets slammed with a convergence zone, more moisture than anticipated develops Sunday night/Monday morning south of the surface low and we both get about 8-10" of snow. Highs 35-40 Lows 25-30 most I-5 stations, we get a nice clear night and the usual cold spots like OLM, HIO, or EUG get into the upper teens. Sometime around mid-week there is an overrunning event which produces widespread 1-3" accumulations. I see this as possible, but chances are low. Highly unlikely/off the table: Widespread significant snow Seattle-south with onset, arctic air south of Seattle on the west side. Widespread sub-freezing highs or lows in the teens. A significant overrunning event. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Saudi Arabia got snow last week.http://strangesounds.org/2016/11/anomalous-snow-saudi-arabia-desert-videos-pictures.html There are some pretty high mountains on the Arabian Pen... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?It must be really good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too! I was actually thinking of this video on my way to work and am so glad you posted it.!!! Absolutely fricken hilarious and fits our little community perfectly. A must watch for all members here. AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_asnow_nwus_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_asnow_nwus_41.pngThat's the GFS silly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Offshore flow seems to be missing so far like last year. Last winter there was precipitation on over 90% of the days here compared to 68% based on the historical normal. There was some cold onshore flow in December and early January last year but very little offshore flow. It has rained on almost every day since the beginning of October and there is very little break ahead... just colder onshore flow. I miss offshore flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 It's time for this video again LOL When I saw my name in it I LOL so hard. Tim is mentioned and others too! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Anyone have the 12z euro snowfall map for oregon?Weather underground has a snowfall map feature for the EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 That's the GFS sillyWhoops! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Conor McGregor. 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Weather underground has a snowfall map feature for the EURO.Yeah I like the wxbell one better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Yeah I like the wxbell one better Ya so do I. Too bad I don't have a subscription. Someone post the wxbell maps! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Saudi Arabia got snow last week.http://strangesounds.org/2016/11/anomalous-snow-saudi-arabia-desert-videos-pictures.htmlFake picture. Tineye. com shows someone uploaded that picture as far back as February, 2013. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 I understand why some people may find me overly pessimistic and perhaps my tone does come off this way. I am actually fairly excited for the potential at my location, but with cautious optimism. I respect DJ's passion, I have "know" him for many years on the forums, blogs, and social media platforms and I think he does a great job posting, analyzing, etc... I think SnowWiz is great, and love reading his posts. On the other hand, this pattern really does not have "great" potential...At all. No model is showing anything close to an arctic blast. Yes we could get modified arctic air in north of Seattle or into E. Washington, but there is no real mechanism for delivering serious cold deep into the PNW, even Seattle. The block is transitory, not amplified enough, and way to far west, not to mention it is vertical with no tilt. We talk about 500mb DM heights at 564 for Anchorage when we get blasts here, not even close with this. This pattern has some potential. I have been saying it has the potential to be something like December 1992 or 94' at best case, I think BLI's January 2012 comparison is also a possibility. All three of those events DID produce widespread lowland snow. That is not out of the question, but probably not likely. 5 days out here is what I think is: Likely: Snow levels in the 500-1000' range Sunday into Monday. Some lowland accumulations T-2" north of Seattle. 3-6" of snow for people like Tim, Timmy, and myself. Highs in the 38-43 range Mon-Wed for the major I-5 stations Seattle south, lows at most of the stations in the 28-33 range. If we get a good clear night we could see some cooler lows. If we have a cloudy day with an overrunning type event on the back end we could see cooler highs. Possible but not likely: Snow levels bounce from the valley floors/sea level to 500' Sunday night-Monday. Overnight accumulations possible or in heavier showers Monday. Most areas get T-1", but a few lucky spots get 3-4" close to sea level with heavy precip, a few locations are left out entirely. Tim gets slammed with a convergence zone, more moisture than anticipated develops Sunday night/Monday morning south of the surface low and we both get about 8-10" of snow. Highs 35-40 Lows 25-30 most I-5 stations, we get a nice clear night and the usual cold spots like OLM, HIO, or EUG get into the upper teens. Sometime around mid-week there is an overrunning event which produces widespread 1-3" accumulations. I see this as possible, but chances are low. Highly unlikely/off the table: Widespread significant snow Seattle-south with onset, arctic air south of Seattle on the west side. Widespread sub-freezing highs or lows in the teens. A significant overrunning event. Crap. Great post here. I tried to 'like' this but I have surpassed by quota. Yeah, until we see a run that actually shows a REAL block and less progressive pattern it's hard to get too excited. If I had to make a forecast it would be snow(sticking) level down to 500' at times. However, I do suppose if the GFS is correct with 850s -9c and 518-520 thickness that anyone could see slushy accumulations if there is moisture. If anyone below 500' wants any shot at snow they had better root for the GFS/ECMWF big time. If the GEM is right no one is getting snow. Of course there is in my back of my mind how the February 2014 blast all of a sudden appeared I believe 3 days before it happened. Models just suddenly did a total 180 when we were pretty certain that nothing but crap was headed our way. That has certainly happened more than once in the past, but let's be real, odds are lower than a Portland's Resistance members IQ of us seeing a massive, dramatic shift in our favor. Onto 18z!!!! 22 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 From a reliable source: 12z EPS control run again with the follow up deep West Coast trough. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 From a reliable source: 12z EPS control run again with the follow up deep West Coast trough. Confirmed. I am looking at it now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Confirmed. I am looking at it now. How promising is it? Is the block looking solid? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 How promising is it? Is the block looking solid? What day do you want to see? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 SW BC, WA, OR and NE CA are now under the 60% chance of below normal temps for 6-10 day period and above normal precip. The 8-14 day period still has almost 50% chance of below normal temps and above normal precip too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 What day do you want to see? 2-2-1989. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 The 18z is running. Block and load!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 What day do you want to see?Any I guess, of if you want to give a brief summary.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 From a reliable source: 12z EPS control run again with the follow up deep West Coast trough.what is the EPS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like 1983. Frigid across the nation, with the heart of the Arctic air centered over the Intermountain West and Plains states. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks like 1983. Frigid across the nation, with the heart of the Arctic air centered over the Intermountain West and Plains states.did our area do good that year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 3 18z shows offshore ridge is suppressing a bit faster and not shoved inland as far as 12z, and thus the trough is digging better. This MIGHT be good. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 did our area do good that year? YES. Portlandhttps://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024229&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Salemhttps://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Eugenehttps://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024221&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Olympiahttps://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024227&year=1983&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 29, 2016 Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 did our area do good that year?Significant Arctic blast in mid/late December that year. Here's the 12z ECMWF mean for days 5-10 and 10-15. The mean is cooler than average through the entire two week period and beyond. Days 5-10: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F6D709EF-5641-4EB2-B303-F21137D26E04_zpsqmydrgnx.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/BD6C2D76-8A84-49B2-B4BF-7964A5122435_zps9o7sqkgh.png Here's days 10-15: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B8B465A6-DA29-4FD8-99BD-BB25327EB149_zpsile5klel.png http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2BED6FA2-6BE4-4C96-B651-4D408DC72640_zpswp2n59bx.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112918/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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