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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

I think 6" is about the highest realistic total at this point. We'll all be happy with half that.

Yeah, I'd definitely take 6". Parts of Western Washington County could possibly see more due to the "Forest Grove Effect", Columbia County and near Gorge too. The first snowstorm in February 2014 absolutely hammered the extreme W and NW areas if we consider them to be part of the Metro area.

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MR.SNOWMIZER
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Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
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Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

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I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Total snow through Friday at 4 p.m. per 00Z GFS:

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_seattle_13.png

I'm screwed in that graphic...literally...looks like I am at the top of that screw zone male genitalia...pointed right at Puyallup!!
  • Like 4

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Agreed. Buuuut, I honestly wouldn't rule out 7 or even 8" (not a forecast...yet!) for some with the current trend in the models. Going to be tough to get accurate readings with all that wind ripping in from the east!

 

Given climo I would say a 6"+ event at PDX is unlikely. I am hedging up a little though...:)

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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BLI snowman Grand Master

BLI snowman

Posted
Posted

Agreed. Buuuut, I honestly wouldn't rule out 7 or even 8" for some with the current trend in the models. Going to be tough to get accurate readings with all that wind ripping in from the east!

Central Clark County is nice because we largely can reap the benefits of the outflow without having to deal with the constant and stronger winds. Makes the snow far more enjoyable and in some cases heavier as well.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted

Speak for yourself. Tinder makes it awfully easy now. :P

 

Definitely true though about snow. Something about suffering through so many snowless Winters and near misses make it absolutely magical when it finally happens.

 

There will never be anything quite as special as the transformation the Pacific Northwest goes through during a snowstorm.

This is why I still rabidly follow winter weather there. I lived the hunt and occasional glory for 25 years. It sticks with you.

A forum for the end of the world.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

The mid-range goodies are definitely fading...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

I'm screwed in that graphic...literally...looks like I am at the top of that screw zone male genitalia...pointed right at Puyallup!!

 

That is hilarious.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

It's pointed right at the "hole" which is puyallup. The second screw zone.

I have never felt so violated looking at a map before...GFS literally screws the both of us! Buckle up big boy!!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Central Clark County is nice because we largely can reap the benefits of the outflow without having to deal with the constant and stronger winds. Makes the snow far more enjoyable and in some cases heavier as well.

 

Yeah that is nice. Here at the top of the West Hills (where we can literally see the airport and gorge) we usually get slammed with the outflow in these events so nothing really piles up except of course in eastern facing areas. We sit right at 1,000ft which is usually still low enough to stay below the surface cold layer so freezing rain becomes a big issue in these transition events as well. But I'm not complaing! We love it up here.

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Given climo I would say a 6"+ event at PDX is unlikely. I am hedging up a little though... :)

 

Agreed. I'd be comfortable forecasting 3-6" at this point.

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Agreed. I'd be comfortable forecasting 3-6" at this point.

 

Now for you at the top of the west hills I wouldn't say 6" is unreasonable.

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Central Clark County is nice because we largely can reap the benefits of the outflow without having to deal with the constant and stronger winds. Makes the snow far more enjoyable and in some cases heavier as well.

It was the same way at WWU in Bellingham.

 

Close enough to almost always benefit from Fraser outflow, but blocked from the strong winds by the hills to the North.

 

Snow is so much more enjoyable when it stays caked on everything than when it's blown all over the place.

  • Like 1

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Goducks09 Newbie

Goducks09

Posted
Posted

Yeah that is nice. Here at the top of the West Hills (where we can literally see the airport and gorge) we usually get slammed with the outflow in these events so nothing really piles up except of course in eastern facing areas. We sit right at 1,000ft which is usually still low enough to stay below the surface cold layer so freezing rain becomes a big issue in these transition events as well. But I'm not complaing! We love it up here.

 

Are you up on Council Crest?  You will likely have a pretty gorgeous view tomorrow...the wind should make for crystal clear skies!

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

PDX 25 G40.  Wind advisory just out.

 

PDX is east metro so the NWS forecast is actually 30-40 G55 MPH.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted

Any thoughts on sustained winds/gusts in PDX during the snowfall?

Its hard to say but Deweydog tried making a prediction and i think he was a little light on the 110 mph prediction, probably scared to let it all hang out. I wouldn't excpect anything less than 235mph winds with light sleet.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Its hard to say but Deweydog tried making a prediction and i think he was a little light on the 110 mph prediction, probably scared to let it all hang out. I wouldn't excpect anything less than 235mph winds with light sleet.

 

Light sleet with 235mph winds is like buckshot coming at you!

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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crf450ish Enthusiast

crf450ish

Posted
Posted

Today we finished up x mas shopping for the kids. Drove to Colville. Pretty wild when I noticed that only my area ( approx 5 mile radius from my house) had recieved snow last night. I'm really hoping for the "big dump" soon. Need to break in the ATV snow plow properly and get the kids behind the ATV on the sleds (yeah their spoiled alright....dad lets them get off sledding the easy way  :) )

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Are you up on Council Crest?  You will likely have a pretty gorgeous view tomorrow...the wind should make for crystal clear skies!

 

Actually a little further north! We're off Skyline above the top of Cornell. Sunset was gorgeous tonight as the skies cleared. Definitely looking forward to seeing the mountains out tomorrow morning!

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Glad we have more moisture on the way. Was getting worried precip might not be above average this month.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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