December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[kokaneekidz]

Vancouver. Sorry typo. Fatfinger

[Goducks09]

The NWS kiss of death.  We had a nice run of model riding.  

[seattleweatherguy]

No warning for Washington yet

[Randyc321]

I would if I was an WXBell member. I just copied/pasted this from a fb group.

Thanks anyway man.  That view has whet my appetite.  

[ShawniganLake]

Anyone on Vanvouver Island getting a snow flurry>? Radar is just picking up snow echos in northwesterly flow coming off Duncan.

Was snowing lightly in Duncan for a couple hours earlier. Getting the odd light flurry on and off here in Shawnigan lake.

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS backed off on the foot the 6z/12z showed for Thursday - now much closer to the Euro and much more reasonable, IMO.

 

Anywhere from 3-7 inches along I-5 corridor in Western WA from Thurs night-Fri morning.

 

It's funny, much closer in accumulations, but not closer at all in how it handles the approaching low.

[Heavy Snow]

I'm currently thinking a widespread 4"-6" snow for PDX Metro turning to ice sometime Thursday night. I don't see PDX thawing out until sometime Friday. I will see the 00z runs tonight and 12z runs tomorrow before making a final forecast.

[ShawniganLake]

Too bad the SE ridge is absent later next week.

[MikeInEverett]

[luvssnow_spokane]

No warning for Washington yet

I suspect around 3:30

[luvssnow_spokane]

Had a glorious arctic high of 42.3 today... 

[catnip]

Vancouver. Sorry typo. Fatfinger

 

Nope, just cloudy.

[luvssnow_spokane]

FWIW, Scott Sistek over at KOMO is going with the Euro solution, forecasting 3-5 inches up and down the I-5 corridor in Western WA. Also mentions the possibilities for wind in the foothills, freezing rain, and potential for more snow events over the weekend and next week.

 

Fairly bullish, but reasonable and I think he will end up mostly right. The Euro has been much more consistent in the strength/track of the low than the GFS. In the Euro we trust.

I have tremendous respect for scott as he is my favorite public met up here. He usually is very good at calling this stuff overall.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Steve pool will say chance of snow flurries. That dumb fool.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have tremendous respect for scott as he is my favorite public met up here. He usually is very good at calling this stuff overall.

 

He is good.I wish they would fire pool and give that job to scott.

[The Swamp]

Had a glorious arctic high of 42.3 today...

Just wait until the moisture over runs that 42.3!

 

Can you say golden?

[The Swamp]

He is good.I wish they would fire pool and give that job to scott.

Scott doesn't have a face for TV.

[Sometimesdylan]

Good morning everyone.

 

13 outside right now. Think I'm getting some snow later this afternoon, models showing anywhere from 3-6 to 8-14 inches of snow tonight into tomorrow. The GFS has the most, but has been consistently showing/growing in its forecast. The euro didn't show much until just yesterday. Overcast right now... something is coming in the sky.

 

Can't wait for finals to get done with. I wanna be done with OB and Pediatric nursing!!!

 

It's funny reading back on this as NOAA was predicting 3-6 for tonight and had issued a winter advisory... Between what the models were showing in liquid amounts and what the radar was showing with the precip arriving faster, I was thinking the CZ was going to set up over Juneau and not 40 miles west of it like NOAA was thinking.

 

 

 

Well, NOAA just upgraded it to a Winter Storm Watch with 10-18 inches The text group I have here for weather was pretty stoked I guessed it (hopefully! still have to see...). Would not have done it without the knowledge I gained reading you guys!

 

Currently snowing at a moderate amount, probably picked up a trace in the last hour. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Scott doesn't have a face for TV.

And steve pool does? Ugly human..  

[Phil]

Too bad the SE ridge is absent later next week.

Ordinarily there would be a SE ridge with the given NPAC setup, but that giant Hudson Bay vortex/+NAO just squashes it.

[luminen]

28/21 and 3-5" of snow forecast for tuesday. 

[HighlandExperience]

And steve pool does? Ugly human..

Steve pool is cool. Hangs out with Macklemore.

[kokaneekidz]

Steve pool is cool. Hangs out with Macklemore.

So he's a pimp too?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Typical boring discussion from our NWS.

[Jesse]

PDX 44. Much warmth. So overachieve. Such sun. WOW.

[HighlandExperience]

Typical boring discussion from our NWS.

Is it me or does Portland nws seem to like snow more?

[Randyc321]

Is it me or does Portland nws seem to like snow more?

Absolutely.  They seem to be completely different. SEA seems almost ashamed to forecast snow.

[kokaneekidz]

You need to look at the marine section to realize they don't have a clue where this Low is headed. Hence;

 

What is much less certain is the track and strength of the surface
low which will impact winds Thursday night and Friday as the low
nears the coastal waters. Confidence in the wind forecast for that
period is low. Kam 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX 44. Much warmth. So overachieve. Such sun. WOW.

 

Yeah, I believe MOS guidance for today was 34.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I believe MOS guidance for today was 34.

Wow.

[kokaneekidz]

Devil's in the details, freezing levels in cascades per same NWS office. They are only letting the mountain critters know the truth, us humans can't handle the truth so they are holding out on us.

 

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. FREEZING LEVEL AT THE SURFACE.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR THE SURFACE.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR THE SURFACE.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
MORNING...THEN SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL AT THE
SURFACE.
.THURSDAY NIGHT... SNOW. SNOW LEVEL AT THE SURFACE.
.FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 500 FEET.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 1000 FEET.
.SATURDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 400 FEET.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 500 FEET.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 1000 FEET.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 1000 FEET.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL NEAR
500 FEET.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVEL NEAR SEA LEVEL.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR THE SURFACE.

[kokaneekidz]

Just dreaming that the headlines in the paper this weekend will show; Biggest snow since 1996 blankets area, more to come!!

 

http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/tag/seattle-snow-january-2012/

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is it me or does Portland nws seem to like snow more?

That's not the problem, they are doing a terrible service to people who depend on them. If you look at the forecast they make it sound like maybe some wet snow here and there. Meanwhile jimmy and his friend are headed to Belingham  in there moms car Thursday morning and have to drive thru 6 inches of snow and crash.

[Kayla]

12z EPS ensembles sure looks chilly in the day 6-10 timeframe. The mean for PDX on the 14th is 32/25.

[catnip]

Starting to get some Hail/Flurries around the area now. It is hit and miss though.

 

Looks like it is drifting down to Whatcom as well.

[HighlandExperience]

It's semi-negligent on their part, I would agree.

 

It's one thing to not take a swing at snow accumulation forecast yet (even though we are within 48 hours, I could understand), it's another to not even discuss the possibilities, models, trends, outcomes, etc.

 

Alas, this is not the first conversation we have had on this forum about this topic. Happens all too often when they don't know which way the forecast will go.

Seattle nws plays it conservative.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

NWS Seattle basically gives me two inches.  Maybe. 

[Front Ranger]

Seattle nws plays it conservative.

 

Plus, they just got semi-burned (at least for Seattle metro) yesterday. They were more bullish than usual Sunday night.

[Winterdog]

High today was only 33!  Could hit the teens tonight if all works well.  Arlington had an official low this morning of 21.

[HighlandExperience]

Plus, they just got semi-burned (at least for Seattle metro) yesterday. They were more bullish than usual Sunday night.

Yup. That was a dud. Hope Thursday brings redemption