December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Perturbed Member]

weather.com shows accumulating snowfall in PDX from Friday the 6th through the end of their 10 day on Jan 13th. All systems go.

[snow_wizard]

SEA nws still has BLI near 30 all week with lows near 20. id knock that down 5 degrees at least.

No doubt. Thicknesses are going to drop below 510. I could see your area struggling to reach 20 on Monday. Certainly not going to get warmer than the mid 20s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Weather advisory just posted for my area. 3-6" forecast...

[snow_wizard]

Cool. I saw that video on tv the other day. Didn't realize it was from Maple ridge.

That lake could freeze 8 or more inches thick with what's coming. Amazing that the teaser cold snaps were able to do that much!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If I actually get 3-4" of snow this weekend I bet I get near 0 next week. I hit 11 in January 2013 with 3" snow cover and this airmass is going to be much colder.

[snow_wizard]

I love the forecast for this area tomorrow night. One word "SNOW". Not a chance of snow, possible snow, snow or rain, snow likely, or any qualifiers...just SNOW.

[BLI snowman]

18z certainly displaying the same epic potential starting Friday.

[snow_wizard]

We're going to get hit in January!!!!

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like Friday will be the day the real snow will start for us. Just about all models on board with that BC slider. You can see it on the latest NAVGEM as well.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016123012/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_29.png

[Deweydog]

18z very similar to the 12z. Massive potential. Seattle gets absolutely clobbered.

[BLI snowman]

Bellingham might have highs in the low teens next weekend if the 18z verified.

[snow_wizard]

18z GFS cut back quite a bit on snow totals for just about everyone. Only 1 inch for the majority of King County, with a 2 inch spot along the I-90 corridor. 12z showed a majority of King in the 2-4 range.

 

Obviously still some uncertainty heading into this, especially considering we are only 24-48 hours out.

I wouldn't worry too much about it. There are going to be dynamics (atmospheric and topographic) in play too complicated for the models to manage anyway. There always are with these things.

[HighlandExperience]

I wouldn't worry too much about it. There are going to be dynamics (atmospheric and topographic) in play too complicated for the models to manage anyway. There always are with these things.

Hope so. Would be quite something special going into this week with at least one inch on the ground.

[Perturbed Member]

Me likes

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123018/240/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

[snow_wizard]

The 18z is undoubtedly historic for Seattle. Absolute craziness! Very decent support from other models / runs also.

[snow_wizard]

Hope so. Would be quite something special going into this week with at least one inch on the ground.

I think 2+ is pretty realistic.

[seattleweatherguy]

The 18z is undoubtedly historic for Seattle. Absolute craziness! Very decent support from other models / runs also.

Explain further on this can't read models on mobile and any idea on timing on new years eve yet?

[Perturbed Member]

Explain further on this can't read models on mobile and any idea on timing on new years eve yet?

 

A lot of snow everywhere starting Friday. 

[Deweydog]

Little bit of cold air over Canada in the 7-10 day period.

[bainbridgekid]

Explain further on this can't read models on mobile and any idea on timing on new years eve yet?

Next Friday through early the next week is extremely snowy and cold on the 18z. Same with the Euro.

 

New Years still looks pretty consistent. Rain showers during the day tomorrow, turning to snow showers tomorrow evening (earlier to the North) and continuing through the night. If we can get a decent convergence zone along the arctic front many areas would likely see 2-4", if not it would be more like a widespread trace-2". We look to dry out relatively quickly Sunday morning.

[Deweydog]

18z doesn't blow up the pattern entirely as the 12z did. That was nice of it.

[Perturbed Member]

18z doesn't blow up the pattern entirely as the 12z did. That was nice of it.

 

We should make an exception and trust the 18z now that it is showing us something we like. 

[snow_wizard]

I think a nice goal for the first third of January would be an average temp 12 or more degrees below normal. Should be quite doable.

[Deweydog]

We should make an exception and trust the 18z now that it is showing us something we like.

It shows us getting quite chilly the day after tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

18z is a wee bit epic. Nice modified arctic air well into fantasyland, with massive snowcover around the region.

[Front Ranger]

I think a nice goal for the first third of January would be an average temp 12 or more degrees below normal. Should be quite doable.

This would be batshit crazy talk 97 percent of the time.

[Deweydog]

The thing I'm looking forward to the most is Tim's first post next week about how during the middle of the day with no wind it doesn't feel that cold. A PNW Arctic blast staple!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW the 18z is great. Portland south may battle with rain at times below 500-1000', but its even cold at the very end of the run. Really cannot ask for anything better than that! WOW!

[TT-SEA]

The thing I'm looking forward to the most is Tim's first post next week about how during the middle of the day with no wind it doesn't feel that cold. A PNW Arctic blast staple!

 

 

Nahhh... its all about anomalies.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking like I may need to invest in a generator, snow blower, and snow shovel...

[Heavy Snow]

Me likes

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016123018/240/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

Looks nice!

[FroYoBro]

Looking like I may need to invest in a generator, snow blower, and snow shovel...

 

I honestly think the disaster associations should start shipping in caskets NOW. 

[BLI snowman]

I just realized that I no longer have my yardstick, will definitely be buying a new one after today's runs.

[crf450ish]

I don't get it.... NWS keeps bumping up temps throughout their forecast period yet everything I read on here says colder and colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just realized that I no longer have my yardstick, will definitely be buying a new one after today's runs.

 

Former KATU reporter Ed Teachout would refer to it as his "drift stick."

[Dave]

GFS has Eug in the single digits on Thursday morning.  If we can somehow manage to get a bit of snow cover, I'd imagine it would be colder than that down here.

[Perturbed Member]

I'm sure I'm getting ahead of myself here but I can't help it. If the 18z GFS actually verified. We would all have massive snow totals and we would still be downright frigid afterwards and be primed for potentially even more snow. 

 

A 1950 like January isn't complete crazy talk right now is it? Is this actually happening? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm sure I'm getting ahead of myself here but I can't help it. If the 18z GFS actually verified. We would all have massive snow totals and we would still be downright frigid afterwards and be primed for potentially even more snow.

 

A 1950 like January isn't complete crazy talk right now is it? Is this actually happening?

Yeah let's shoot for January 1943

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah let's shoot for January 1943

 

That was about 19 inches at PDX?

 

Bring it on. 

[Perturbed Member]

GFS has Eug in the single digits on Thursday morning.  If we can somehow manage to get a bit of snow cover, I'd imagine it would be colder than that down here.

I only just now noticed your signature....is it actually true?