December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Lisa0527]

Any chance you have a similar chart for Vancouver. Sadly I think each run is showing us with less snow.

 

Saying the 12z Euro ensembles for snow are remarkable would be an understatement.

 

The mean ends up at 10 inches. There are almost three times the members showing 10+ inches (28/51) than

[Front Ranger]

I'm sure I'm getting ahead of myself here but I can't help it. If the 18z GFS actually verified. We would all have massive snow totals and we would still be downright frigid afterwards and be primed for potentially even more snow.

 

A 1950 like January isn't complete crazy talk right now is it? Is this actually happening?

Nothing is off the table...

 

But at the very WORST, this will be the coldest January event since 2004.

 

That's right, I'm personally guaranteeing this tops 2007. You can take that to the (snow) bank.

[Lisa0527]

Thanks for posting that

[Dave]

I only just now noticed your signature....is it actually true?

Unfortunately, yes it is.  There hasn't been a single snowflake down here since Feb 2014.  Not even a positive windshield splat test.  Hope to break that streak on Sunday.

[Perturbed Member]

Nothing is off the table...

 

But at the very WORST, this will be the coldest January event since 2004.

 

That's right, I'm personally guaranteeing this tops 2007. You can take that to the (snow) bank.

 

Money back guarantee included I assume. 

[Heavy Snow]

I'm sure I'm getting ahead of myself here but I can't help it. If the 18z GFS actually verified. We would all have massive snow totals and we would still be downright frigid afterwards and be primed for potentially even more snow.

 

A 1950 like January isn't complete crazy talk right now is it? Is this actually happening?

I predicted months ago that we would see a January 1950/1969 winter as our best possible scenario. It's possible because its happened before but alot of stuff has to go right. The biggest thing is another reload needs to occur after the middle of the month.

[Perturbed Member]

Unfortunately, yes it is.  There hasn't been a single snowflake down here since Feb 2014.  Not even a positive windshield splat test.  Hope to break that streak on Sunday.

 

That's pretty sad, I guess maybe repayment for all those epic events Eugene started the decade with?

 

In any case, I really hope next week gives everyone so much snow that we all get sick of winter weather for a bit. 

[Perturbed Member]

I predicted months ago that we would see a January 1950/1969 winter as our best possible scenario. It's possible because its happened before but alot of stuff has to go right. The biggest thing is another reload needs to occur after the middle of the month.

 

The reload would be nice, but I'm more focused on just nailing a good regionwide snowstorm this time next week. 

[Dave]

Looks like a classic, but rare pattern F on the way.

 

[Heavy Snow]

The reload would be nice, but I'm more focused on just nailing a good regionwide snowstorm this time next week.

Yeah definitely. Most here would be happy with what the next 2 weeks could bring.

[snow drift]

WSW posted for Spokane-CdA for heavy snow and blowing/drifting snow Sat-Sun.

[chinook]

WOW the 18z is great. Portland south may battle with rain at times below 500-1000', but its even cold at the very end of the run. Really cannot ask for anything better than that! WOW!

 

so McMinnville left out?...makes me not want to celebrate. 

 

oh so close. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

so McMinnville left out?...makes me not want to celebrate.

 

oh so close.

You would get snow.

[jakeinthevalley]

so McMinnville left out?...makes me not want to celebrate. 

 

oh so close. 

There are still some parking lot snow piles around from a couple weeks ago!!

[snow_wizard]

I'm a bit surprised the NWS hasn't dropped the forecasted temps New Year's Eve through early next week.  I'm 90% sure it will be colder than they are saying.  Thicknesses drop to about 508 over Seattle.  I could easily imagine a high in the mid 20s or so.  If there is decent snow cover outlying areas should see lows in the 8 to 13 range.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just south of omak.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just looked at models. Wow next weekend looks insane!

[Front Ranger]

Money back guarantee included I assume.

Yes, any money you want to give me will be returned if this event falls short of 2007.

 

Based on OLM's numbers, of course.

[The Swamp]

I'm a bit surprised the NWS hasn't dropped the forecasted temps New Year's Eve through early next week. I'm 90% sure it will be colder than they are saying. Thicknesses drop to about 508 over Seattle. I could easily imagine a high in the mid 20s or so. If there is decent snow cover outlying areas should see lows in the 8 to 13 range.

The Seattle AFD updates are always underwhelming to read. Schneider Buhner Jay all global warming snow haters hahahaha!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like a classic, but rare pattern F on the way.

 

Pattern A+, they mean!

[Front Ranger]

I'm a bit surprised the NWS hasn't dropped the forecasted temps New Year's Eve through early next week. I'm 90% sure it will be colder than they are saying. Thicknesses drop to about 508 over Seattle. I could easily imagine a high in the mid 20s or so. If there is decent snow cover outlying areas should see lows in the 8 to 13 range.

What were the 850s and thicknesses in Nov 2010?

[Bryant]

Pattern A+, they mean!

What the F is a pattern F?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 35 after a midnight high of 39 today. Thinking yesterday could have been my last 40 degree high for awhile. Warmest temp of the month was 47, I will have to look, but I cannot recall another month that didn't hit 50 here, maybe January 2013.

[van city]

Any thoughts on this?

[bainbridgekid]

What were the 850s and thicknesses in Nov 2010?

850's bottomed out around -17 for SEA and thicknesses were ~508.

 

That was a d*mn impressive blast.

 

This was the lowest thicknesses got. 850's bottomed out about 9 hours later:

 

[DareDuck]

Unfortunately, yes it is. There hasn't been a single snowflake down here since Feb 2014. Not even a positive windshield splat test. Hope to break that streak on Sunday.

Wow, I moved out of Eugene two weeks after the Feb 2014 storm. It's all my fault.

[Front Ranger]

The Seattle AFD updates are always underwhelming to read. Schneider Buhner Jay all global warming snow haters hahahaha!

Cliff Mass has a blog update that is equally lacking in additional insight or opinion. He also suggests highs no colder than around freezing.

[bainbridgekid]

Cliff Mass has a blog update that is equally lacking in additional insight or opinion. He also suggests highs no colder than around freezing.

What's really weird is the sentence before that he says it will be the coldest period since 2008. 

 

Can't really have it both ways.

[Front Ranger]

850's bottomed out around -17 for SEA and thicknesses were ~508.

 

That was a d*mn impressive blast.

 

This was the lowest thicknesses got. 850's bottomed out about 9 hours later:

 

112309.png

Thanks. Yeah, to produce highs in the mid 20s in November, it takes something exceptional.

 

I would think even with minimal snow cover, this upcoming week will feature at least a couple days with highs in the 20s most places.

[Front Ranger]

What's really weird is the sentence before that he says it will be the coldest period since 2008.

 

Can't really have it both ways.

Yup. Even if he's talking mainly lows... maybe he forgot how cold a couple of the Arctic events since 2008 got.

[Timmy]

Currently 35 after a midnight high of 39 today. Thinking yesterday could have been my last 40 degree high for awhile. Warmest temp of the month was 47, I will have to look, but I cannot recall another month that didn't hit 50 here, maybe January 2013.

I have the exact numbers and was thinking the same thing

[Dave]

What the F is a pattern F?

It's from Mark Nelson's blog.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/winter-patterns/

[HighlandExperience]

Cliff Mass has a blog update that is equally lacking in additional insight or opinion. He also suggests highs no colder than around freezing.

 

They are all playing it pretty conservative. I suppose I don't blame them after all the recent busts. 

[Dave]

Wow, I moved out of Eugene two weeks after the Feb 2014 storm. It's all my fault.

You could see 20 below at some point next week.  Brrr!

[kokaneekidz]

They are all playing it pretty conservative. I suppose I don't blame them after all the recent busts. 

Which will give credence to the weather actually producing what we all long for. Real snow with real cold and sticking around for long enough to become acclimated. I love it

[seattleweatherguy]

Special weather statement gives bothell about an inch and north of everett 1 to 3 inches not sure if bothell is more in the 1 to 3 inch range

[snow_wizard]

Cliff Mass has a blog update that is equally lacking in additional insight or opinion. He also suggests highs no colder than around freezing.

 

Puzzling.  Just going from thickness numbers and 850mb temps highs solidly below freezing seem almost inevitable.  Especially this time of year.

[Front Ranger]

They are all playing it pretty conservative. I suppose I don't blame them after all the recent busts.

Completely the wrong way to interpret warning shots.

[snow_wizard]

Special weather statement gives bothell about an inch and north of everett 1 to 3 inches not sure if bothell is more in the 1 to 3 inch range

 

I think all of King County will do well.  This is totally different than a situation that would bring a normal C-Zone to favor northern areas.  I think any busted forecasts will be on the low side.  We are going to have cyclonic northerly flow with this and that is one scenario the models often underdo precip in King County.  This one just feels and smells right to me.

[seattleweatherguy]

I think all of King County will do well. This is totally different than a situation that would bring a normal C-Zone to favor northern areas. I think any busted forecasts will be on the low side. We are going to have cyclonic northerly flow with this and that is one scenario the models often underdo precip in King County. This one just feels and smells right to me.

I trust you here. Been on this forum for years your one of the vets here that would know this.

 

Do you think midnight is still accurate when it turns to snow or ealier.