December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through day 10.     Save this map for posterity?  

 

[Perturbed Member]

I do want to point out that the more westward track and precip hanging around longer for Sunday was caught by the NAVGEM long before the other models. It also had the correct low track with the December 14th strom. The model might possibly be more useful in the short to medium range than it is given credit for.

[Goducks09]

Hmmm..................

 

Juneau NWS

The Alaskan Shortwave has a jet in excess of 140kts feeding it. That could lead to a stronger system sliding down BC Coast tonight and tomorrow.

 

If so, look for 18z, and 00z runs to carve the trough out a bit better along the central BC Coast (12z runs did just that to an extent)

 

Best news today (mainly because we can actually track this). Looking forward to the 18z!

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at current 500mb obs you can see the cut-off low has fully formed and starting to head west the past few frames. Also can look at the shortwave at the top of our ridge starting to head around it.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/sat_upr/201612301800_500mb.gif

Yup. Shortwave is near Anchorage. Timing has moved ahead. I can see it on IR/WV Loops

[pscz1140]

Total snow through day 10.     Save this map for posterity?  

 

Wow, the swamp gets buried and the Gorton's Fisherman^TM even gets some snow on his little yellow sombrero off the Oregon Coast.

 

Let's do this!

[Heavy Snow]

Total snow through day 10. Save this map for posterity?

 

This map makes me so happy because everybody can get some snow.

[Heavy Snow]

Just giving you the gears. Highly probable that northern regions get their share before the pattern breaks down.

Yeah the system coming down at the end of next week will give everybody widespread snow.

[Front Ranger]

I do want to point out that the more westward track and precip hanging around longer for Sunday was caught by the NAVGEM long before the other models. It also had the correct low track with the December 14th strom. The model might possibly be more useful in the short to medium range than it is given credit for.

Go Canadian Navy!

[seattleweatherguy]

Kind of cool:

 

181-million+ to see snow!

ECMWF 12z almost snowiest possible for Lower 48 in terms of coverage for 10-days. Still room for more folks! pic.twitter.com/SgwMR93Y6W— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) December 30, 2016

Looks,like it extends to San fran

[Phil]

General hemispheric progression @ 500mb. 12z Euro look realistic, to you?

Yeah, it look reasonable to me. Things could also evolve in a somewhat different, less amplified manner. Minor perturbations can be quite influential in a pattern like this.

[Phil]

CPC from yesterday. Can't look much better than that.

 

Wanna guess where I am right now?

[Deweydog]

Yeah, it look reasonable to me. Things could also evolve in a somewhat different, less amplified manner. Minor perturbations can be quite influential in a pattern like this.

You'd think now would be the time to spitball a "December 2008 only snowier" extremecast.

[Phil]

You'd think now would be the time spitball a "December 2008 only snowier" extremecast.

No point in making mistakes if you don't learn from them.

[stuffradio]

Someone has to take one for the team.....

We'll get you with our hockey sticks and curling.

[stuffradio]

Speaking of ice, this is a local lake filmed last week by some people.

[ShawniganLake]

Speaking of ice, this is a local lake filmed last week by some people.

Cool. I saw that video on tv the other day. Didn't realize it was from Maple ridge.

[The Swamp]

52° here in the swamp today . Cutting the grass in short sleeves and waiting for the big massive Arctic snow dump .

[Deweydog]

52° here in the swamp today . Cutting the grass in short sleeves and waiting for the big massive Arctic snow dump .

It's not supposed to snow today. But surprises do happen!

[The Swamp]

It's not supposed to snow today. But surprises do happen!

When cutting one extra high spot I found the family car. It was a great surprise.

[epiceast]

Total snow through day 10.     Save this map for posterity?  

 

Yea taunt the Swamp residents with it!

[The Swamp]

Yea taunt the Swamp residents with it!

That snow map actually looks pretty good for the swamp .

[TT-SEA]

That snow map actually looks pretty good for the swamp .

 

 

Only 9-12 inches... pretty pathetic.  

[pscz1140]

Euro ensemble mean looks nice and it snows for days on the GFS-Para.

 

Models looking good today to say the least.

[SalemDuck]

This should win the contest...

[ShawniganLake]

I saw that on CBC and they made it sound like it was interior BC.

I had assumed it was as well.

[epiceast]

That snow map actually looks pretty good for the swamp .

Yes, but it's a model output map not an observation map

[Heavy Snow]

12z EURO ensemble mean for PDX shows 27 to 30 degree highs Jan 2 to 7. It shows 32 to 33 degree highs Jan 8 to 13. It's decent.

[FroYoBro]

12z EURO ensemble mean for PDX shows 27 to 30 degree highs Jan 2 to 7. It shows 32 to 33 degree highs Jan 8 to 13. It's decent.

33 degrees?

[Brennan]

SEA nws still has BLI near 30 all week with lows near 20. id knock that down 5 degrees at least.

[Perturbed Member]

I'll just leave this right here:

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

[dairyd]

SEA nws still has BLI near 30 all week with lows near 20. id knock that down 5 degrees at least.

 

I concur. NAM and WRF has Abbotsford/north Whatcom in single digits for Monday night/Tuesday morning. 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nammeteograms/images/711080.meteogram.gif

[Heavy Snow]

I'll just leave this right here:

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

Thanks, it looks interesting.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS going for T-1 inch for the metro on Sunday. A widespread inch is probably still pretty unlikely but I think a good dusting for everyone is looking good. 

 

"Again, snow accumulations will vary, especially as the precipitation

turns more showery on Sunday. So, total accumulations for Sunday
through Sunday night: 1 to 3 inches for the Coast Range/Willapa
Hills, and half inch or less on Coastal lowlands. Interior valleys
and I-5 Corridor will get a trace to 1 inch with up to 2 inches in
the higher hills, with 1 to 3 inches in the Columbia Gorge. Generally
3 to 6 inches for foothills of Cascades, and 5 to 12 inches in high
Cascades. /Rockey."

[EA_TTD]

Well hello there...

 

[Goducks09]

Well hello there...

 

 

 

WOW - that's pretty impressive.

[Heavy Snow]

Well hello there...

 

It looks alright.

[Perturbed Member]

Well hello there...

 

 

Wow...not something you see often. When was the last time we've seen the euro ensembles look like that for snow?

[Lisa0527]

Quick question. It's hard for some of us to get Euro precipitation estimates. I've been looking at the yr.no site that gives point forecast estimates, but I have no idea if they're accurate or not. They do seem awfully precise. Just wondering if anyone has an opinion on the site. Here's the latest Vancouver forecast. Seems reasonable I suppose.

 

https://www.yr.no/place/Canada/British_Columbia/Vancouver/long.html

[EA_TTD]

Wow...not something you see often. When was the last time we've seen the euro ensembles look like that for snow?

12/15/08

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble is in-freeking-sane! Colder than the 0z ensemble and a perfect signature for snow at the 500mb level. The mean heights are shown to be 528 or so for the Seattle area in the 10 to 12 day period. Incredible for a mean that far out!

 

The operational ECMWF showed over 2 inches of snow for this area tomorrow night, and a total of 9 inches through day 8 or so. This is looking potentially incredible.

 

I've been telling people this January has a realistic shot at being the coldest in 50 years. That kind of puts a concerned look on their faces.