December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Portland NWS doubling down on the power of positive thinking. It's never failed them before.

[MossMan]

Still just 32 here.

[Jesse]

Good point, Mountains doing great, been a little colder so better than the last few winters. I think expectations were really high based on the block. Such a waste of block that we may not see again for many years if not longer...

Or it could come back later this month and Matt would look like a genius with his late January thing winning out over my early January thing. Impossible to tell.

[HighlandExperience]

I expect it to get up to about 37 to 40 today in many locations.

That's not terrible. Better than being 45 when the front arrives.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS doubling down on the power of positive thinking. It's never failed them before.

 

 

Then there is this for what its worth...

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

Still just 32 here.

Don't worry you will get snow. You always do !

[Front Ranger]

Or it could come back later this month and Matt would look like a genius with his late January thing winning out over my early January thing. Impossible to tell.

Although, the first half of the month isn't looking like the +PNA fest that accompanied that prediction.

 

Probably as good as any model past day 4, though!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The models have been moistening up tomorrow's "event" down here over the last 36 hours, it is a small but noticeable trend. Perhaps a small peace offering for going to heck in the midrange. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding

70kt Wind Barbs!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gif

[chopper 918]

Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding

70kt Wind Barbs!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gif

Yeah, Portland will be cold and dry! Get your chap stick ready. D**n!

[Front Ranger]

Then there is this for what its worth...

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_12z.jpg

The only thing I use that model for is to measure the engine revs in my Camry.

[chopper 918]

I have a good feeling that us Portland peeps will be happy by next weekend. That gorge is going to help us tremendously. It may not be the historic cold that the models were once showing, but I think we will see good amounts of snow.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles are interesting. A good bunch of members that warm us up much more quickly next week, but also a handful that extend the cold.

 

The mean still stays well below average throughout the run. At least it appears we are still not looking at any torchy periods.

[Jesse]

Any word on the 12z GEM?

[Deweydog]

Or it could come back later this month and Matt would look like a genius with his late January thing winning out over my early January thing. Impossible to tell.

I still like very late January/early February at this point, although I definitely thought this round of meridional stuff would be more +PNAish.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't find any model giving the Willamette Valley widespread accumulations of 1-2" as the NWS is forecasting...

[Deweydog]

Any word on the 12z GEM?

Wednesday is worth watching.

[Heavy Snow]

Holy CRAP! 12z WRF Sounding

70kt Wind Barbs!

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016123112/images_d2/kpdx.99.0000.snd.gif

That's going to entrench the low level cold over PDX Metro. Best case scenario a midweek system lifts up north giving us snow but then heads East pulling colder air in behind it cooling the upper levels of the atmosphere resulting in more snow as systems drop in from the NW. This is going to turn out fine for most of us.

[Jesse]

I still like very late January/early February at this point, although I definitely thought this round of meridional stuff would be more +PNAish.

Considering there were indications a week or so ago that the upcoming pattern could have gone that way for us, I suppose we could be really crazy and view anything we get next week as a blessing/bonus. Side effects may include happiness.

[Kayla]

23 for a low this morning. Probably colder than PDX is going to get with this "arctic blast."

 

Is that a forecast or a troll I hear?

[Front Ranger]

I can't find any model giving the Willamette Valley widespread accumulations of 1-2" as the NWS is forecasting...

National Wishcasting Service. At least in Portland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is that a forecast or a troll I hear?

 

They have a shot to beat it Tuesday morning. I'm going with an optimistic low of 19 at PDX. That would equal 2007.

[Deweydog]

Considering there were indications a week or so ago that the upcoming pattern could have gone that way for us, I suppose we could be really crazy and view anything we get next week as a blessing/bonus. Side effects may include happiness.

People are caught up in the context of the latest runs, not the runs themselves. Understandable, and the unfavorable shift may not be done, but things look very interesting for next week. I'll take it.

[Deweydog]

Is that a forecast or a troll I hear?

He is probably right.

[Front Ranger]

I still like very late January/early February at this point, although I definitely thought this round of meridional stuff would be more +PNAish.

Regardless of what happens down the road, the overriding theme seems to be persistent below normal weather, with -PNA dominating.

 

1948-49 and 1961-62 refuse to leave the table.

[umadbro]

I can't find any model giving the Willamette Valley widespread accumulations of 1-2" as the NWS is forecasting...

That's called the Weagle! Blind faith and assumptions!

[Winterdog]

What does the Euro snow map look like for the whole run? There should be an overrunning event for the Seattle area I would think.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He is probably right.

 

PDX has a funny way of underachieving.

[snow_wizard]

I trust everyone has calmed down since last night. Snowfall maps still show a big snow event for Seattle in the 8 to 10 period and tonight looks very interesting. The trend has been to actually strengthen the low a little bit since yesterday's runs. Pretty nice to go into this knowing the Seattle area will have snow. The question is how much. Still potential for unexpected convergence zones and we've already seen a trend toward keeping moisture around longer than originally shown.

 

1972 has been added to the analog list which is quite interesting because that January featured a bunch of minor cold snaps with bits of snow alternating with brief mild periods and then ultimately a big dump. To this day the January 1972 snowstorm was probably my favorite of all time that I can remember.

 

As long as the Aleutian / GOA block is in play we are in business...there might just be periods where the downstream pattern kicks out over the ocean a bit too much.

[Deweydog]

PDX has a funny way of underachieving.

24 with strong east winds sounds chilly to me.

[FroYoBro]

I really can't believe that the Portland NWS issued a WWA for widespread 1 to 2 inches. At this point they just seem like a bunch of weenies praying for snow every event.

 

It seems kind of irresponsible for the general public. People will be all mad that the ground is bare. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

National Wishcasting Service. At least in Portland.

I think the Seattle NWS is going to be way more accurate. That looks a little extreme for Portland... 

[Jesse]

People are caught up in the context of the latest runs, not the runs themselves. Understandable, and the unfavorable shift may not be done, but things look very interesting for next week. I'll take it.

I'm taking solace in the fact that there have been a smattering of runs over the last 4-5 days that have warned us things could go this way. It's not like it's a completely new development.

 

I would like to see the trends stabilize now though. Ensembles give me hope.

[Kayla]

He is probably right.

 

Even the warmest run (12z GFS) gets PDX down to 18º next week. Bold (troll) forecast based off of the current guidance at this time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn't be surprised to see PDX pull off an unexpectedly mild midnight high Monday.

[snow_wizard]

Regardless of what happens down the road, the overriding theme seems to be persistent below normal weather, with -PNA dominating.

 

1948-49 and 1961-62 refuse to leave the table.

People should take notice I'm not melting down over this. If all was lost you all know what I would be like.

 

Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble last night showed the brief mild period, but it snapped right back to a very nice pattern again afterward.

[snow_wizard]

I really can't believe that the Portland NWS issued a WWA for widespread 1 to 2 inches. At this point they just seem like a bunch of weenies praying for snow every event.

 

It seems kind of irresponsible for the general public. People will be all mad that the ground is bare.

They actually did ok with the snow you had a couple of weeks ago. There was doubt then also.

[Deweydog]

Even the warmest run (12z GFS) gets PDX down to 18º next week. Bold (troll) forecast based off of the current guidance at this time.

PDX will have to decouple well to get into the teens with the more modified air mass. Looks unlikely.

[snow_wizard]

I still think there is underestimation of the coming cold going on.

[luvssnow_spokane]

People should take notice I'm not melting down over this. If all was lost you all know what I would be like.

 

Interesting to note the ECMWF ensemble last night showed the brief mild period, but it snapped right back to a very nice pattern again afterward.

Jim I give you props to always holding on to all hope until the ship is already underwater. Kudos to you and hope you're right. I am just struggling with how to deal with the 20foot wide whole in this ship we are riding.  If the band keeps playing it will at least keep the passengers calm.