Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 6z GFS: Snow: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121306/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png Ice: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121306/126/zr_acc.us_mw.png It takes a bit longer for the surface low to really deepen this run. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121306/108/prateptype_cat.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Another look at 06Z GFS- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Interesting disco from MPX--- look at paragraph two... Next issue is the snow storm. We are still seeing decent model disagreements, with the question at hand dealing with phasing. Come Friday, a positively tilted trough will be working south across the Canadian Rockies as it works around the Hudson Bay low, with a southern stream wave working across northern California on its way to the 4-corners. The differences we are seeing with the 13.00 models is largely driven by when this phasing occurs. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the phasing, with the GFS on the slow end. The result is the ECWMF having its heaviest precip across southern MN into central WI, coming Friday/Friday night. While the GFS has a more prolonged event lasting through Saturday, though its heaviest QPF axis is down across northern IA into southern WI. For this forecast we did decrease pops Thursday night, as all models have back way off on the lead WAA band of snow that was progged to come up Thursday night, with the snow now looking to mostly hold off until Friday. Though forecasts may differ, all guidance shows it snowing Friday/Friday night, so we increased PoPs above SuperBlend guidance to get widespread categorical PoPs.Looking at CIPS analog guidance for the forecast valid at 00z on the 17th (Friday evening), the top match is from November 30th 1985, which happens to be the Twin Cities second largest snowstorm on record, while number 2, January 12th, 1979 was Chicago's fourth largest snowstorm on record. Though we probably won't see numbers quite that high (both cities saw about 21" with these storms), it does indicate the potential this type of weather pattern has. With QPF likely topping out between at least a half and three-quarters of an inch where the heaviest band sets up, we should have no problem seeing a swath of at least 8-12", just a question of where. At the moment, that where would range anywhere from the heart of the MPX area to down along the MN/IA border into southern WI. Beside these accumulations, we will have some stronger winds to go with this storm that we did not have over the weekend, so there will be at least a minor blowing and drifting component to this storm as well. Bottom line, we will likely have winter storm watches rolling out either later today or tonight if models continue to show what the have been the last few days. Behind this system, both the GFS/ECMWF show a very cold blast of arctic air coming in for Saturday and Sunday. This will likely result in the coldest weather we have seen since January of 2014 come Sunday. Like Thursday, we trended temperature forecasts Sunday closer to CONSRAW, which pushed lows down down into the -15 to -25 range with highs Sunday mainly below zero. Current apparent temperatures Sunday bottom out at -40 in western MN, so wind chill warnings/advisories will likely follow up any winter storm headlines we have this weekend. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro and GFS on different planets again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Both Euro and GFS show 6+". I would like to see the Euro trend a bit wetter in the days ahead. It does look like long range NAM is going to be more like the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Euro and GFS on different planets again.Yep, for sure. Euro now shows more of a wrapped phaser and the GFS is more spread the wealth type. We knew we couldn't go a whole storm with relatively good model consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Models are all ova the place. By Wednesday, at the earliest, they will be getting a better idea. One thing is for sure, ice might be a player this time around for some. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Interesting disco from MPX--- look at paragraph two...Next issue is the snow storm. We are still seeing decent modeldisagreements, with the question at hand dealing with phasing. ComeFriday, a positively tilted trough will be working south across theCanadian Rockies as it works around the Hudson Bay low, with asouthern stream wave working across northern California on its wayto the 4-corners. The differences we are seeing with the 13.00models is largely driven by when this phasing occurs. The ECMWF isthe most aggressive with the phasing, with the GFS on the slow end.The result is the ECWMF having its heaviest precip across southernMN into central WI, coming Friday/Friday night. While the GFS has amore prolonged event lasting through Saturday, though its heaviestQPF axis is down across northern IA into southern WI. For thisforecast we did decrease pops Thursday night, as all models haveback way off on the lead WAA band of snow that was progged tocome up Thursday night, with the snow now looking to mostly hold offuntil Friday. Though forecasts may differ, all guidance shows itsnowing Friday/Friday night, so we increased PoPs above SuperBlendguidance to get widespread categorical PoPs. Looking at CIPS analog guidance for the forecast valid at 00z on the17th (Friday evening), the top match is from November 30th 1985,which happens to be the Twin Cities second largest snowstorm onrecord, while number 2, January 12th, 1979 was Chicago's fourthlargest snowstorm on record. Though we probably won't see numbersquite that high (both cities saw about 21" with these storms), itdoes indicate the potential this type of weather pattern has. WithQPF likely topping out between at least a half and three-quarters ofan inch where the heaviest band sets up, we should have no problemseeing a swath of at least 8-12", just a question of where. At themoment, that where would range anywhere from the heart of the MPXarea to down along the MN/IA border into southern WI. Besidethese accumulations, we will have some stronger winds to go withthis storm that we did not have over the weekend, so there will beat least a minor blowing and drifting component to this storm aswell. Bottom line, we will likely have winter storm watches rollingout either later today or tonight if models continue to show whatthe have been the last few days. Behind this system, both the GFS/ECMWF show a very cold blast ofarctic air coming in for Saturday and Sunday. This will likelyresult in the coldest weather we have seen since January of 2014come Sunday. Like Thursday, we trended temperature forecasts Sundaycloser to CONSRAW, which pushed lows down down into the -15 to -25range with highs Sunday mainly below zero. Current apparenttemperatures Sunday bottom out at -40 in western MN, so wind chillwarnings/advisories will likely follow up any winter storm headlineswe have this weekend. I like the '78/'79 analog right there! Chicago's snowiest winter on record. ORD Plume... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 @ Tom I wonder if any mixing will be occurring this time with those totals. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Tom you sure that is the sref plume? Maybe GFS ensembles. Sref only getting into front end range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 ..looks like an avg of all models per the checked boxes on the right side Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Tom you sure that is the sref plume? Maybe GFS ensembles. Sref only getting into front end range. Your right. It's not the SREF's but instead an ensemble map of various models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I like the '78/'79 analog right there! Chicago's snowiest winter on record! Dis gonna b fun! As mentioned already, I'm seeing/feeling '78-79 and feeling it too. Shades of 2013-14 and some other analogs, but '78-79 leading the pack so far. I think this region will end up being Ground Zero: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 @ Tom I wonder if any mixing will be occurring this time with those totals. Gonna be a nail biter, but I think N IL and points south are looking better than before when models were wrapping this thing up into a western lakes cutter. Don't think that is on the table now as op and ensembles are pointing towards a lower lakes cutter currently. 06z GEFS took a tick south... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_17.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_21.png 06z GEFS MSLP trend... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_9.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ens_mslptrend_us_10.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Dis gonna b fun! As mentioned already, I'm seeing/feeling '78-79 and feeling it too. Shades of 2013-14 and some other analogs, but '78-79 leading the pack so far. I think this region will end up being Ground Zero: 20161213 Ground Zero Map.JPGBoy, if we end up getting 10"+ from this storm system, you can't help but think that we may make a run towards another memorable winter. That goes for this entire region including the Midwest. Just for fun, but I'm seeing both GEFS/GEPS indicating yet another weekend storm system targeting the same regions for the Christmas holiday! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121300/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_50.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_48.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z Euro... Come on now lmao. That is the most comical thing I have ever seen for Nebraska. Wow. If that doesn't show our luck during the winter every year, I don't know what does. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z Euro...10"+ for me. I'll accept it. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Come on now lmao. That is the most comical thing I have ever seen for Nebraska. Wow. If that doesn't show our luck during the winter every year, I don't know what does.I don't know what to say about this amigo! I did drive through Omaha/NE not long ago, but I didn't see no dome.. .....let's squash this theory with a nice snow storm this weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 This system has a deep subtropical connection... http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 NAM seems to have slowed things down as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Boy, if we end up getting 10"+ from this storm system, you can't help but think that we may make a run towards another memorable winter. That goes for this entire region including the Midwest. Just for fun, but I'm seeing both GEFS/GEPS indicating yet another weekend storm system targeting the same regions for the Christmas holiday! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016121300/gem-ememb_lowlocs_us_50.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016121306/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_48.png January of '79 I was a HS freshman and got my first invite to try Alpine skiing with my older sis and hubby. They would go to Crystal Mountain resort in NW Lwr part of MI. I loved it, cuz they went on a CMU day which was a week day and I was allowed to play hooky to go skiing up north. That ofc, was a good winter even in SEMI, but up there in the LES snow belt, there must've been 50-60" OTG and it looked like snow weenie paradise. Even the main state hwy was totally snow covered with fresh LES and the banks were monstrously huge! I didn't think anywhere outside the mountain west had such deep pristine snow like on a post card. Went 2 or 3 times that record season. Then got new skis and the very next season was the year of dry and cold. Hardly had a flake that wasn't machine made. If these storms pan out, I would imagine Christmas morning depth records would be in play around this region, eh? That'd be something from where we were, not that long ago. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 NAM seems to have slowed things down as well Mentioned by MPX, why they backed off the snow on Thurs. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Ya the NAM is advertising more of a friday 9 am or so start time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12z NAM also has a nice High over Low placement and a very strong low in the Rockies....this has been something I've been paying attention to and see where the SLP organizes in the Plains states. GFS elongates the energy and has 2 pieces overnight Friday...it's just after the NAM range where it gets real important around here what happens. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121312/namconus_mslpa_us_53.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121306/gfs_mslpa_us_18.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 FWIW, the NAM has been trending south in the Rockies region over the last 4 runs...the HP near the British Columbia/Alberta region seems to be stronger each run. Last 4 runs near MT area have been increasing heights... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_mslpa_us_51.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121300/namconus_mslpa_us_49.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121306/namconus_mslpa_us_47.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121312/namconus_mslpa_us_45.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Tom is gonna pull this one in and go 3/3 this year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Tom is gonna pull this one in and go 3/3 this yearHa the south trends have me a bit worried. Seems like its just a bleed South so hopefully they stop soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Even though Geos moved to Washington, it looks as if he left his snow magnet behind. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Tom is gonna pull this one in and go 3/3 this yearNot completely comfortable yet. Still think this is going to be a N IA/S WI special but N IL is riding the edge due to the warm tongue. If we get 10" of thump snow, then turn to ice, then back to snow I won't complain though. Staying all snow is iffy right now. If by Thursday trends continue, I'll be more enthusiastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Not completely comfortable yet. Still think this is going to be a N IA/S WI special but N IL is riding the edge due to the warm tongue. If we get 10" of thump snow, then turn to ice, then back to snow I won't complain though. Staying all snow is iffy right now. If by Thursday trends continue, I'll be more enthusiastic.So far, GEM model has me in all snow with ova a foot. GFS is 5-10inches changing to ice and then back to snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Very anxious and nervous at the same time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 It would be amazing if this winter panned out like 77-78 and 78-79. It was back to back memorable winters that I would hope someday I would be able to experience again. It seemed like it snowed every other day and we were always under winter storm watches. Back then the criteria was a little different but still credible. I lived in the city at the time and eventually there was soo much snow on the streets that they eventually ran out of room and had to bring in dump trucks to remove the snow from the streets and dump them into forest preserves and into the Chicago River. The forest preserves grew mountains overnight and boy you could imagine the fun everyone had with that. Also, both years was a money maker for shoveling snow especially rooftops. The snow was so heavy that there was a major concern of roof collapses that most folks, especially apartment building owners with flat roofs, had us shoveling there rooftops. It was hard work but my friends and I were in it for the money so we shoveled roofs for weeks on end. Side streets barely got touched because main streets came first and by the time they were ready for the side streets another storm would come. There was two paths(ruts)in the street where the cars would drive on so basicly you could take your hands off the wheel and the cars would just follow the path without you even touching the wheel. Cars were always double parked on the street because the alleys had so much snow on them no one could get to their garages. You could guarantee its not if your car would get smacked but when. My car got hit alot but it was a beater so I really did not care. Most folks had two sets of cars back then. One nice car during the summer months and one nasty car for the winter months so if it got smashed you really did not care. I hope you guys get to experience that this coming winter beacuse I tell you it will be something you will never ever forget and the stories you will tell will bring a smile to every snow lovers face. Good luck to all this winter!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Very anxious and nervous at the same time. 12z NAM took a step in the right direction and really cooled off 850's in NE/KS...brings the 0C isotherm line farther south than the GFS...obviously, at this range it is highly suspect. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121312/namconus_T850_ncus_53.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I know the NAM has its issues at this range, but it handled last weekends system quite well at least here. Curious to see what it does with that high in SW Canada and the subsequent push of arctic air. The 12z run has it farther north/west than the 6z GFS which looks like it might provide more opportunity for the low to come a bit north. We'll see. Maybe just wishful thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 12Z GFS is going. Be interesting to see how similar it is to the NAM's thinking about holding energy back in the west longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 I know the NAM has its issues at this range, but it handled last weekends system quite well at least here. Curious to see what it does with that high in SW Canada and the subsequent push of arctic air. The 12z run has it farther north/west than the 6z GFS which looks like it might provide more opportunity for the low to come a bit north. We'll see. Maybe just wishful thinking.Your towel definetly shouldnt be thrown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 People in Minnesota definitely shouldn't be throwing the towel in. If anyone should, it would be me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 13, 2016 Report Share Posted December 13, 2016 Just don't want any mixing here....I'll be happy with whatever long as it's not liquid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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