January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Deweydog]

Oh, I didn't even know. What movie?

"Arctic Blast" starring Heavy Snow.

[Perturbed Member]

Well, we sit in a bowl below the South Hill of Puyallup.  It's like a giant armpit.

 

It takes a pretty good surge of arctic air to cool us down enough to get snow.

 

Once the cold air settles in, all it takes is one of my chili farts to scour out the cold and turn fluffy white snow to rain.

 

That about sums it up.

 

Lol... yes... the swamp highlands. Even with the elevation we still have a very similar climate affects of either shadowing, downsloping, and mixing out rapidly. It is an interesting microclimate that both PuyallupJohn and I live in. My elevation helps a little but not much overall.

 

Hmm, doesn't sound too fun for snow. Maybe that's an understatement. What is the annual snowfall amount? Can you guys benefit from the PSCZ?

[FroYoBro]

The GFS shows snow showers all day Wednesday. The westside might get nailed. 

[epiceast]

The afternoon forecast package makes little sense...What a mess...

I guess they must be letting an intern who only has freshman course of intro atmospheric sciences ghostwrite the AFDs lately.

[Front Ranger]

Oh, I didn't even know. What movie?

 

Pretty sure this: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0308208/

 

I remember watching that movie in college and laughing uncontrollably at how ridiculously bad it was.

[Heavy Snow]

The dry east winds will eat up some more of the moisture in east metro. That could possibly explain the difference in snow amounts.

Yeah I definitely see those with lots of Gorge influence seeing less snow but as others have mentioned, I don't think it will gobble up as much moisture as previous events this winter. I think areas near Forest Grove will get the most snow.

[Deweydog]

Upslope potential is up.

[DareDuck]

My yard pack went all the way down to 12-13". Even some spots down to 10".

 

I'm near 100% sure I'm not getting 2+ foot depths this winter. (Not long ago this was a huge possibility. It easily could have ended up between 24-30")

My snowpack is down to 20" after compacting with some sleet and zr. However with tomorrow's snow it could approach 30" for a couple days.

[TT-SEA]

At face value it's definitely better than 18z, though. We'll see what WRF says.

 

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get_orig_img.gif

 

 

WRF is a little better... and I think it will end up north of the operational run.  

 

Not sure it will be true sticking snow for places below 500 feet though.

[GHweatherChris]

2 to 3 inches her is looking likely, I would take just an inch at this point.

[TT-SEA]

My snowpack is down to 20" after compacting with some sleet and zr. However with tomorrow's snow it could approach 30" for a couple days.

 

 

Really nice to have a icy lid on the snow cover... holds up much better.  

[Deweydog]

2 to 3 inches in her is looking likely, I would take just an inch at this point.

Yikes!

[Front Ranger]

Forks might clean up tonight.

[The Swamp]

2 to 3 inches her is looking likely, I would take just an inch at this point.

I hope you get that and more.

[Timmy Supercell]

Just snowed a couple inches out there. Radar says a bunch more on the way. Maybe until midnight. I'll measure later.

[Front Ranger]

You're reporting what everyone already knows

 

There's still a chance for areas between OLM and SEA. Precip only has to make it a bit further north than modeled.

 

Wouldn't be a first.

[The Swamp]

You're reporting what everyone already knows

Tim needs a bag of scones and some elephant ears.

 

Wild and crazy Tim eats a scone.

[GHweatherChris]

Yikes!

Thank you for the edit, but I will not change it, it might jinx it. Lol

[Bryant]

There's still a chance for areas between OLM and SEA. Precip only has to make it a bit further north than modeled.

 

Wouldn't be a first.

I deleted my comment. Not worth it

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just snowed a couple inches out there. Radar says a bunch more on the way. Maybe until midnight. I'll measure later.

 

SCORE!

[Front Ranger]

GEM much better for Seattle to Olympia.

 

[MossMan]

GEM much better for Seattle to Olympia.

I want to hear Arlington to Olympia.

[HighlandExperience]

GEM much better for Seattle to Olympia.

 

gem.gif

WRF provides some hope

[Timmy Supercell]

I deleted my comment. Not worth it

 

By saying that, you get me interested in what the comment was in the first place.

[TT-SEA]

I deleted my comment. Not worth it

 

 

Yeah... not worth posting the last GFS snow map.

 

I also posted the HRRR which showed the deformation band over King County.

 

I know much more about your antics now.    

[Deweydog]

I want to hear Arlington to Olympia.

Arlington to Olympia.

[GHweatherChris]

WRF provides some hope

Now showing 4 to 5 inches here, let's do this!!

[TT-SEA]

By saying that, you get me interested in what the comment was in the first place.

 

 

He said posting the GFS snow map was saying what everyone already knew.

 

But MANY people want me to post snow maps from WB since they don't have access.    Only the good ones Bryant??    Or is it about information?   

 

Its all him.    

[Bryant]

By saying that, you get me interested in what the comment was in the first place.

I just said "you're reporting what everyone already knows" to Tim. Wasn't a big deal

[MossMan]

Arlington to Olympia.

Yay thanks!! I feel a ton better now!

[Bryant]

I know much more about your antics now.

What are you talking about?

[Timmy Supercell]

I just said "you're reporting what everyone already knows" to Tim. Wasn't a big deal

 

But... Dat GFS tho. 

 

Gone.

[Bryant]

But... Dat GFS tho.

 

Gone.

Looks like quite an impressive event for many

[Front Ranger]

Now showing 4 to 5 inches here, let's do this!!

 

You look to be in a good spot for this one. Just a matter of getting enough cooling tonight.

[TT-SEA]

You look to be in a good spot for this one. Just a matter of getting enough cooling tonight.

 

Should be OK out there... and flow is offshore now.     Its actually warmer around King County with downsloping.  

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/slp.12.0000.gif

[Front Ranger]

The GEM almost always overdoes precip...but this is still WAY better than the 12z run.

 

Not that anyone should care, per Bryant.

 

[Dave]

My shoe got wet stepping in wet sloppy slush puddle that was deeper than expected. 

[Laura]

Fight fight fight!      

[FroYoBro]

I bet the Portland NWS is glad they focused their attention on the huge snow maker tonight for Clark County instead of the snow storm tomorrow night