January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail

[St Paul Storm]

Both the 6z and 12z NAM continuing to show a bigger ice potential than the other models up this way. 12z run a few ticks stronger with the low as well.

[Tom]

00z Euro ice potential...

 

 

[Tom]

12z NAM..

 

ICE:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011406/084/zr_acc.us_mw.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011406/084/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

Snow:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017011406/084/snku_acc.us_c.png

[St Paul Storm]

12z NAM ice

[NEJeremy]

We're within the range now of the higher resolution NAM models. I've noticed there's more of a thump later Sunday afternoon and evening. One of the NAM's had .29" of ice by 0Z Monday here in Omaha.

[NEJeremy]

What's interesting is you can see how warm it is at 850 in Omaha. Flowers mentioned this yesterday in that video where he said the precip can bring down that warm air so if you're just below freezing at the surface, it can warm to above freezing with the rain falling and all you get is a cold rain. Ground temps are cold so you might get some ice for a while, but not as much on trees and power lines.

 

Good times Ravs!!!  Pretty sad we get pumped for an ice event. Oh well - at least it's something.

I have broke these down into 3 hour segments and a running total precip to better pinpoint things--

I will do DSM,OMA and LNK and let Ravs do some others as he was still at the bar when I left.

 

DSM (actually about 30 mins W-- but close enough)

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.1     2.3    1026      74      93    0.06     567     546   
MON 03Z 16-JAN  -1.4     3.3    1025      87      96    0.14     567     547   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.6     3.7    1024      91      86    0.20     567     548   
MON 09Z 16-JAN  -1.7     5.1    1023      94      39    0.21     566     548   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.7     5.4    1021      97      77    0.22     565     549   
MON 15Z 16-JAN  -1.3     5.6    1019      98      97    0.37     564     549   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.1     5.5    1015      99      98    0.62     561     549   
MON 21Z 16-JAN   1.6     5.6    1011      99      45    0.69     557     548   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   2.5     4.7    1010      99      52    0.70     554     546   
TUE 03Z 17-JAN   1.5     2.8    1009      99      93    0.72     551     544   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.5     2.2    1009      99      87    0.78     550     542

 

OMA

SUN 21Z 15-JAN  -1.3     1.9    1026      84      98    0.07     566     546   
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.7     2.8    1025      90      99    0.18     566     547   
MON 03Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.1    1024      92      95    0.31     566     548   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.5    1023      94      56    0.33     566     548   
MON 09Z 16-JAN  -1.6     5.1    1021      96      61    0.35     565     548   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.3     5.1    1018      97      91    0.38     563     549   
MON 15Z 16-JAN  -0.6     4.5    1017      98      99    0.61     562     548   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.6     4.9    1013      99      86    0.77     558     547   
MON 21Z 16-JAN   1.1     3.6    1010      99      67    1.00     553     545   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.1     2.2    1011      99      75    1.04     551     542   
TUE 03Z 17-JAN  -0.6     1.1    1012      96      64    1.05     551     541   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.8    -0.3    1013      92      79    1.08     553     543

 

LNK

SUN 03Z 15-JAN  -2.8     1.5    1033      34      68    0.01     571     545   
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -3.1     1.1    1032      41      85    0.01     571     545   
SUN 09Z 15-JAN  -2.5     0.5    1031      47      87    0.01     570     545   
SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.6     0.9    1030      60      93    0.02     569     545   
SUN 15Z 15-JAN  -2.4     1.0    1030      71      91    0.02     569     546   
SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.0     1.9    1028      78      94    0.05     569     546   
SUN 21Z 15-JAN  -2.3     3.7    1025      88      98    0.17     567     547   
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.6     3.6    1025      93      97    0.29     567     547   
MON 03Z 16-JAN  -2.6     4.6    1024      95      76    0.36     566     548   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     5.3    1022      97      54    0.36     566     548   
MON 09Z 16-JAN  -2.2     5.3    1020      97      89    0.39     565     549   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.9     5.7    1017      98      99    0.45     562     549   
MON 15Z 16-JAN  -1.0     4.6    1015      99      96    0.69     560     548   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.2     4.5    1013      99      75    0.78     556     545   
MON 21Z 16-JAN   0.4     2.4    1011      98      66    0.83     550     542   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.6     1.2    1013      95      83    0.88     549     539   
TUE 03Z 17-JAN  -1.0     0.1    1014      92      91    0.91     553     542   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.6    -0.5    1015      88      66    0.93     555     543

[NEJeremy]

12Z GFS not showing the ice Sunday afternoon and evening in Nebraska. Precip's barely made it to Nebraska at 12Z MONDAY.

[Money]

A lot of the rain that falls on GFS in N. IA/S. WI, the temp is like 32-34 degrees. If it's too warm by a degree or two...

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011412/060/sfct.us_mw.png

[Money]

RGEM through 48:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011412/048/prateptype.conus.png

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011412/048/zr_acc.us_c.png

[Money]

Temps at 48 (RGEM vs GFS)

 

RGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011412/048/sfct.us_c.png

 

GFS:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011412/048/sfct.us_c.png

[Snowlover76]

I'd go with the RGEM for temps over the GFS

[Snowlover76]

Driving to work Monday morning is gonna suck

[mlgamer]

I'm already sitting at 32.5 degrees at 11AM here in Topeka. The temp has risen 4 degrees since 7AM.  I'm guessing we stay above freezing the rest of the daylight hours today as long as it stays dry.

[Snowlover76]

howd the 12z Euro look? 

[Money]

[Snowlover76]

just saw Euro map that gives Lincoln over an inch of ice. 

[East Dubzz]

Was planning to head back to school on Monday morning, but obviously don't think that's going to happen anymore.

[Grizzcoat]

DSM going with EURO-

 

-Initially the warm layer aloft will be 1-2C or less leading to
snow or a wintry mix, but the persistent warm advection will
likely boost those values to 3C+ flipping our precip type to
freezing rain. This will unfortunately also coincide with the max
lift from the aforementioned low with much stronger and deeper
forcing into Monday. The persistent warm advection and latent heat
release from a warm layer possibly in excess of 5-6C depending on
model choice should warm surface temps and dewpoints sufficiently
to flip our precip type to mainly rain across the southeast two-
thirds of the forecast area later in the day. Confidence in how
this plays out in sensible weather impacts is still somewhat low
however as the warm layer degree and road vs surface temperatures
are all uncertain. The GFS warm layer is much less aggressive
suggesting more of a mix, and much like that occurred last Tuesday
the degree of road temperature recovery vs temp/dewpoints is
questionable. However the most favored solution leans toward the
warmer ECMWF/NAM warm layer and more significant freezing rain
impacts so with the event now starting around 24 hours away have
opted to issue winter weather headlines in the form of an Ice
Storm Warning west and a Winter Weather Advisory elsewhere. There
will certainly be some mixed precip potential in the warning, but
felt it best to highlight that area where ice accums are expected
to reach 0.3 in spots. With a mix and lower ice accums elsewhere,
felt it best to keep it simpler with just a Winter Weather
Advisory with varied precip types north and the possibility of an
inch or two north on the back side of the system.

[FarmerRick]

Beautiful out today. 35* and sunny with no wind...  

 

Got my car in my shop, ready to put the studded snows on it if necessary, generator is gassed up and hooked up to the house.  Have plenty of eggs, milk and bread...  a 30 pack of Hamms, 2 bottles of vodka, zing zang, girlfriend's coming over in about an hour... I think I'm ready

 

Bring it on Mother Nature!!!!

[Snowlover76]

http://www.weather.gov/images/oax/WxStory/FileL.png?rand=90497

[Snowlover76]

anyone have euro deets? 

[Money]

Farther SE with the surface low and Omaha gets crushed with ice it looks like.

[ToastedRavs]

anyone have euro deets? 

Here you go:

 

Near DSM:

SUN 18Z 15-JAN   0.2     2.6    1029      35      86    0.00     567     544    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -0.8     2.8    1026      49      94    0.01     566     546    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.0     3.3    1025      87      98    0.11     566     547    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.1     4.7    1022      91      98    0.06     565     548    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.0     5.5    1018      97      99    0.15     562     548    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.2     4.1    1013      99      90    0.31     556     545    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.4     2.4    1013      97      80    0.04     555     544    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -0.7     1.4    1014      93      75    0.00     557     545    

Omaha:

SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.7     2.5    1030      35      87    0.00     568     544    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -0.1     2.3    1028      50      93    0.01     567     545    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.7     2.8    1025      87      98    0.06     566     546    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.0     2.9    1024      91      98    0.10     566     547    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.9     4.4    1020      93      99    0.09     564     548    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.1     4.1    1016      96      99    0.25     560     547    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.0     1.5    1015      94      83    0.38     555     544    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.0     0.6    1016      93      94    0.03     558     545    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -2.7    -0.3    1018      82      40    0.00     557     543    

Lincoln:

SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -4.1     3.0    1032      41      69    0.00     570     545    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -1.8     2.8    1030      45      97    0.01     569     545    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.8     2.5    1028      75      93    0.05     568     546    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.1     2.8    1025      90      99    0.12     566     547    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     3.5    1023      93      99    0.09     566     547    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.6     4.7    1019      95      98    0.07     563     548    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.5     3.3    1016      96      99    0.37     559     546    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.3     0.6    1015      94      85    0.47     556     544    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.6     0.5    1017      90      94    0.04     559     545    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -4.2     0.9    1019      73      51    0.00     558     544    

OLU

SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.8     2.2    1030      43      79    0.00     567     544    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -0.1     1.6    1028      48      84    0.00     567     545    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.0     2.1    1024      89      99    0.06     565     546    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     2.2    1023      93      99    0.26     565     546    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.7     3.1    1020      94      96    0.09     563     547    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.8     2.6    1018      94      97    0.19     560     545    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.4     0.3    1017      93      97    0.36     557     544    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -2.4    -0.4    1019      77      97    0.07     558     544    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -7.2     0.8    1020      72       7    0.00     557     542    

Topeka

SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -2.4     5.1    1032      71      89    0.00     574     549    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -1.9     4.7    1030      83      81    0.04     572     548    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.3     5.7    1028      93      97    0.14     571     549    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.1     6.1    1024      97      77    0.11     569     550    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -0.8     6.1    1021      99      90    0.04     568     551    MON 12Z 16-JAN   1.1     7.6    1014      99     100    0.29     564     552    MON 18Z 16-JAN   6.2     4.7    1009      99      56    0.22     556     548    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   3.3     2.6    1011      98      77    0.06     554     545    TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.1     2.6    1016      92      74    0.00     561     548    

[Snowlover76]

Farther SE with the surface low and Omaha gets crushed with ice it looks like.

Lincoln too? 

[Snowlover76]

thanks money 

[ToastedRavs]

Seems to me the delay of the heaviest precip continues to be pushed back; at least on the Euro

[winterfreak]

Nothing here. I'm ok with a whiff if it's used on an ice storm.

[gabel23]

Wow EURO gives me an inch of ice, just save me power.........

[gabel23]

Here you go:

 

Near DSM:

SUN 18Z 15-JAN 0.2 2.6 1029 35 86 0.00 567 544

MON 00Z 16-JAN -0.8 2.8 1026 49 94 0.01 566 546

MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 3.3 1025 87 98 0.11 566 547

MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.1 4.7 1022 91 98 0.06 565 548

MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.0 5.5 1018 97 99 0.15 562 548

TUE 00Z 17-JAN -0.2 4.1 1013 99 90 0.31 556 545

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.4 2.4 1013 97 80 0.04 555 544

TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.7 1.4 1014 93 75 0.00 557 545

Omaha:

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.7 2.5 1030 35 87 0.00 568 544

SUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.1 2.3 1028 50 93 0.01 567 545

MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.7 2.8 1025 87 98 0.06 566 546

MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.0 2.9 1024 91 98 0.10 566 547

MON 12Z 16-JAN -1.9 4.4 1020 93 99 0.09 564 548

MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.1 4.1 1016 96 99 0.25 560 547

TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.0 1.5 1015 94 83 0.38 555 544

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -1.0 0.6 1016 93 94 0.03 558 545

TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.7 -0.3 1018 82 40 0.00 557 543

Lincoln:

SUN 06Z 15-JAN -4.1 3.0 1032 41 69 0.00 570 545

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.8 1030 45 97 0.01 569 545

SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.8 2.5 1028 75 93 0.05 568 546

MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.1 2.8 1025 90 99 0.12 566 547

MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 3.5 1023 93 99 0.09 566 547

MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.6 4.7 1019 95 98 0.07 563 548

MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.5 3.3 1016 96 99 0.37 559 546

TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.3 0.6 1015 94 85 0.47 556 544

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.6 0.5 1017 90 94 0.04 559 545

TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.2 0.9 1019 73 51 0.00 558 544

OLU

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -2.8 2.2 1030 43 79 0.00 567 544

SUN 18Z 15-JAN -0.1 1.6 1028 48 84 0.00 567 545

MON 00Z 16-JAN -2.0 2.1 1024 89 99 0.06 565 546

MON 06Z 16-JAN -2.4 2.2 1023 93 99 0.26 565 546

MON 12Z 16-JAN -2.7 3.1 1020 94 96 0.09 563 547

MON 18Z 16-JAN -1.8 2.6 1018 94 97 0.19 560 545

TUE 00Z 17-JAN -1.4 0.3 1017 93 97 0.36 557 544

TUE 06Z 17-JAN -2.4 -0.4 1019 77 97 0.07 558 544

TUE 12Z 17-JAN -7.2 0.8 1020 72 7 0.00 557 542

Topeka

SUN 06Z 15-JAN -2.4 5.1 1032 71 89 0.00 574 549

SUN 12Z 15-JAN -1.9 4.7 1030 83 81 0.04 572 548

SUN 18Z 15-JAN -1.3 5.7 1028 93 97 0.14 571 549

MON 00Z 16-JAN -1.1 6.1 1024 97 77 0.11 569 550

MON 06Z 16-JAN -0.8 6.1 1021 99 90 0.04 568 551

MON 12Z 16-JAN 1.1 7.6 1014 99 100 0.29 564 552

MON 18Z 16-JAN 6.2 4.7 1009 99 56 0.22 556 548

TUE 00Z 17-JAN 3.3 2.6 1011 98 77 0.06 554 545

TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.1 2.6 1016 92 74 0.00 561 548

 

Thanks for updating me on Columbus!

[Snowlover76]

Was the GFS this cold?

 

Seems like the Euro is the only model with this much ice here. Might be overdone

[ToastedRavs]

Looks like DSM WFO going with colder Euro and Canadian.  Discussion not out yet but have lowered high temp on Monday for the city down to 33!  This from earlier forecast highs for Monday of 41-38-37.  This could get nasty!

[Bellona]

I'm now down to a high of 33 on Monday according to nws. Though accuweather and the weather channel now never have me getting above freezing which is going to be a big problem! Lacrosse nws even stating their southern counties may need an ice storm warning now. Not sure what Dvn is thinking as they have not changed a thing!

[St Paul Storm]

Roughly 24 hours until the start of things here and still not sure if we'll get several inches of snow, 0.25" of ice, or nothing at all. Tough spot for MPX.

[gosaints]

Roughly 24 hours until the start of things here and still not sure if we'll get several inches of snow, 0.25" of ice, or nothing at all. Tough spot for MPX.

Yep. La crosse still no headlines either. Deciding between advisory and ice storm warning. Guessing the advisory although the nam is bullish

[Snowlover76]

I don't think it'll be as bad here

[Money]

MKE's says GFS cooler temps has some merit and headlines will be likely: 

 

The GFS

MOS 3hrly temps show readings 3-5 degrees colder than the NAM.

Predominant low level flow will be from the east so thermal

advection likely to be initially limited and cloud cover likely to

inhibit the normal morning boost so the colder numbers have some

merit. Prior to warm layer push some initial snow is plausible but

dry airmass may limit that potential. The NAM and ECMWF show a

stronger push of moisture in the 12-18z time frame while the GEM

and GFS show lighter qpf into the far south in that timeframe.

Clearly the GFS keeps the concern for the fzra longer than the NAM

which could last into the evening hours. Mid level shortwave along

with surface/850 low passage will enhance vertical motion fields

Monday night. For now leaning towards a blended solution with

areas of nrn and wrn cwa most vulnerable to a longer period of

fzra than the south or southeast. Still think a headline will

likely be needed to handle this potential icing scenario.

[Money]

RGEM:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017011512/048/zr_acc.us_mw.png

[East Dubzz]

Little weird that there are no headlines at all here in DBQ.

[gosaints]

Uffda ice storms tough to.forecast but looks like a decent one

[St Paul Storm]

Yep. La crosse still no headlines either. Deciding between advisory and ice storm warning. Guessing the advisory although the nam is bullish

LaCrosse needs a headline more than up here. Based on trends I think MPX will go advisory or cancel completely.