clintbeed1993 Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 00z run on the 18th. VS 00z run on the 20th Hoping for some reverse psychology with the title 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 LMAO at thread title Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 its sad but true Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 00z Euro caving to the GFS...sadly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 OMA and DSM snow domes in full effect. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 F this winter what a joke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 06Z Gfs even further N-- but then again we all knew that beforehand.DSM least snowiest winter season is 8.3"--- its well on it's way with a whopping 3.9" thus far and only .1 in JAN. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Euro Control- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 No surprise here that the models are trending north once again, another "Dakotas' Special." The Dakotas can keep it, let's keep the ground snow free at this point and get an early spring. I can deal with a snow-less winter as long as there is no real arctic cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Hoping for some reverse psychology with the title Won't work because that violates the Non-Reciprocal Law of Expectations: Negative expectations yield negative results.Positive expectations yield negative results. Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Might be another Dakotas special. Are there any teleconnections that would give it a southern solution? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Ya trending towards rain for all. Even Money Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 MSP region will do good with this one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 CPC is no joke the "kiss of death" when forecasting 4+ days out....sheesh...! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 12z Euro looks like it may give NE/IA some hope... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012012/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012012/ecmwf_T850_us_6.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Yay an inch of slop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 MSP region will do good with this one...Shhh....don't say that. Haha! 850 temps look good, but 2m temps not so much. Would be a close call here. When in doubt, it's gonna rain, not snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Anyone have snowfall maps for the 12Z Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 Anyone have snowfall maps for the 12Z Euro? 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 ecmwf_runsnowgrid_144_nc (1).jpgOur local NWS made it sound like the Euro was much better than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 18z gfs coming in quite a bit farther south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 18z GFS...weak sauce though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 20, 2017 Report Share Posted January 20, 2017 The MSP discussion is flying a rather odd flag this evening.... "Given the potency of this system and the past analogs, this storm will likely be capable of producing 6+" of snowfall." I am not exactly sure what they see, but I like the optimism. (?) Despite the fact that there is not much model guidance I have seen to support this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 CPC is no joke the "kiss of death" when forecasting 4+ days out....sheesh...! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours_home.pngAnd yet the northeast scores again with the storm that gives us rain! You can't make this stuff up. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 And yet the northeast scores again with the storm that gives us rain! You can't make this stuff up.Mostly rain there as well it looks like too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Mostly rain there as well it looks like tooWas going by that CPC map..I feel much better thanks! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 00z GFS close call for DSM...N IA/S MN/WI get hit pretty good... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 gosaints hit decent: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017012100/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 GEM still farther south. Takes a low from Northern MO to north-central IL (south of Chicago) Northern Iowa gets hit good on GEM. 8-12+ from western IA NW through NE IA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 GEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017012100/138/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Euro seems to be trending S also- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Euro seems to be trending S also- sfcmslp.conus.pngAlso about 8 MLB stronger than GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just noticed something, this map would likely be snow for quite a lot of IA, but eurowx is flagging it as rain because surface temps are 33-34, while temps at 925, 850 and 500 are all below zero(celsius). That could explain some of the funky p-type calls in marginal temp events. EDIT: Here's what it came up with snow-wise 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Yeah-- the last few years-- DSM area largest snowfall events have been with temp 33F-- not below 32F until after the event. But that was with a much colder grounds temps,, this Seattle Slew crap we have is really warming temps. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 here is the 10:1 map Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 Euro Control-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 NAM at HR 84: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017012112/084/sfcwind_mslp.conus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2017 Report Share Posted January 21, 2017 That's odd. Pivotal shows the low near the panhandle at hr 84 on the 12z NAM and TT shows the low in E KS at the same hour. What am I missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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