February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

GFS Shows a solid 3-6 inches for Seattle area. I'd say 4-8 inches up in Whatcom county and Vancouver BC. I'd be happy with that.

[van city]

Can someone post the 00z GEM snowfall map from WeatherBell?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah the GEM is pretty much exactly the same as the GFS 

 

A little warmer tomorrow night/Saturday and further offshore with the initial low, but perhaps a bit better with the Sunday system.

[HighlandExperience]

Can someone post the 00z GEM snowfall map from WeatherBell?

Gem looks snowy on Sunday & Monday. Would love to see the wxbell map.

[bainbridgekid]

WRF shows a nice Whatcom special tomorrow evening into Saturday morning.

 

[Phil]

Gem looks snowy on Sunday & Monday. Would love to see the wxbell map.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F7392356-1643-449E-A3E9-CA2D74C3696A_zpsx8j5ypbs.png

[HighlandExperience]

[van city]

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F7392356-1643-449E-A3E9-CA2D74C3696A_zpsx8j5ypbs.png

Thanks Phil!!

[Phil]

Yeah, still looks solid on the GGEM. As do the soundings on stormvista.

 

Now we wait another hour for Dr. No.

[Timmy]

The wrf shows a decent snow for Washington county and the pdx metro tonight.

[snow_wizard]

Fabulous looking model runs tonight. This thing just might work out.

[HighlandExperience]

Fabulous looking model runs tonight. This thing just might work out.

Those gem totals would be nice for east king county

[Timmy]

The nw Oregon coast range is showing 1-2' of snow this weekend. I'm staying at the beach Friday-Tuesday, should be a fun drive.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing here in port orchard. No rain or sleet mixed in

[MossMan]

28 here currently.

[Perturbed Member]

I'd still rather have the 12z GEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020212/gem_asnow_nwus_23.png

 

 

How often do you get a heavy snowfall from Medford to BC?

[snow_wizard]

I find it hard to believe the East Puget Sound lowlands will have a good .10 to .15 of water equivalent (WRF number) tomorrow morning with the current single digit dew points. If so ZR or sleet seem pretty likely. Outside chance it could snow, but not likely.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sticking to the ground already. Love the dry air and cold ground.

[snow_wizard]

Sure wasn't expecting this band of precip currently moving through the area. Pretty early.

[Perturbed Member]

WRF seems to be on drugs again. This model has  been such trash this winter. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2017020300/images_d2/or_snow24.24.0000.gif

 

Suddenly calling for 2-3 inches tonight. 

 

 

Too bad the soundings are no where near a snow profile.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/kpdx.12.0000.snd.gif

[Timmy]

I'd still rather have the 12z GEM

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020212/gem_asnow_nwus_23.png

 

 

How often do you get a heavy snowfall from Medford to BC?

It's easy when you use an ultra low res map zoomed way out

[bainbridgekid]

Sure wasn't expecting this band of precip currently moving through the area. Pretty early.

Dry roads and 30% humidity in Tacoma in the middle of that band though.

[Perturbed Member]

It's easy when you use an ultra low res map zoomed way out

 

It looked good on the Weatherbell map too.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sure wasn't expecting this band of precip currently moving through the area. Pretty early.

Ya... pretty good band but it appears for most of the area it is not hitting the ground, as expected and forecasted.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Dry roads and 30% humidity in Tacoma in the middle of that band though.

 

Station of the gods reporting snow. 

 

ALL SYSTEMS GO.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dry roads and 30% humidity in Tacoma in the middle of that band though.

not here. I am about 5 miles south of port orchard at a friends house and its coming down good. Ground is white.

[HighlandExperience]

Sure wasn't expecting this band of precip currently moving through the area. Pretty early.

Yea wasn't expecting any moisture tonight

[bainbridgekid]

not here. I am about 5 miles south of port orchard at a friends house and its coming down good. Ground is white.

Nice. You're still near the front edge of the band, so makes me wonder if you'll pick up a half inch or so in the next hour.

 

Makes sense it would snow there much quicker though since Easterly flow is upslope out there. Hard to imagine much more than flurries East of the Sound with this band.

[Jesse]

Sure wasn't expecting this band of precip currently moving through the area. Pretty early.

I hope you get snow.

[HighlandExperience]

I bet NWS Seattle mentions no snow in their discussion

[snow maniac]

Snowing good here everything white.

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing good here everything white.

Location?

[luminen]

This climate is strange. We can go several consecutive winters without any meaningful snow and then we have one winter with tons of snow...depending on location of course. It just goes to show it doesn't take THAT much for a big snowstorm here. It's just a matter of getting past a certain threshold. 

[HighlandExperience]

The moisture streaming in looks more substantial than I expected

[luminen]

It's just strange to me though when various factors seem to be in our favour and it doesn't work out. It's apparently very sensitive...

[Heavy Snow]

The 00z WRF-GFS 4KM shows decent snow accumulations west of the Cascades in the Willamette Valley from Sunday 4am to Monday 4am.

 

[HighlandExperience]

[luvssnow_spokane]

ITs snowing here!!!!! OMG!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Coming down good. 31 degrees.

[snow maniac]

Location?

Mason County between Belfair and Shelton on South end of Mason Lake