February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I send him one every other day.

Every company has its problem employees...

[Front Ranger]

41 with a dewpoint of 1 at SEA... primed for wet bulb tomorrow morning. 

 

Certainly don't see that every day. Or every winter!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of the Euro ensembles are absolutely epic for snow Eugene to BLI

[jakeinthevalley]

My friends Dad works for the Bulletin, they have had a huge problem getting their papers delivered!

My brother is the Editor of the Baker City Herald....owned by the same corp.

[Front Ranger]

Seattle NWS still has only freezing rain mentioned for places south of BLI. No snow. Afternoon update will be interesting.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Seattle NWS still has only freezing rain mentioned for places south of BLI. No snow. Afternoon update will be interesting.

I would be surprised if they changed anything.

[Brennan]

NAM worrying anyone?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM worrying anyone?

NAM island

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just talked to my buddy at the NWS, there WILL be changes in the afternoon package..

[Deweydog]

NAMaste!!!

[Jbolin]

Just talked to my buddy at the NWS, there WILL be changes in the afternoon package..

Who's your buddy? Berg, Johnson, etc ?

[FroYoBro]

NAMaste!!!

This post brought down the website. 

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty good echos from that narrow band down south. Looks like snow is mixing in on the OSU webcam. SPC showed 850s around 2c there.

[BLI snowman]

18z not quite as pretty. Bad trend, guys.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is pretty similar

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z is pretty similar

as I expected...  It is fine. 

[MossMan]

18z not quite as pretty. Bad trend, guys.

Have you become the new/old Andrew of the forum?

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z snowfall thru Tuesday... Just Dandy for Puget Sounders. Still lala land range so this could bust quickly!

 

[Bryant]

18z not quite as pretty. Bad trend, guys.

Not sure if serious? Referencing down south or as a whole?

[BLI snowman]

Have you become the new/old Andrew of the forum?

 

No, I don't get nearly as much snow as him.

[BLI snowman]

Not sure if serious? Referencing down south or as a whole?

 

As a whole.

[MossMan]

18z GFS actually shows a little more for greater Puget Sound area than 12z.

I like pretty and bright colors!

[Bryant]

As a whole.

Heights aren't quite as low and there is a bit more energy thrown offshore when comparing to the 12z. Is that what you're seeing?

[Tenochtitlan]

What's with those random sharp cutoffs on Whidbey Island and near Vancouver? Is that just an artifact of the model?

[Heavy Snow]

18z not quite as pretty. Bad trend, guys.

Yeah I agree. There is never really any offshore flow and cold pool in the Columbia Basin. Elevations above 1000 feet will do good and maybe 500 feet. This is just not the type of pattern for PDX Metro to score. Unless the Low comes in more like the 12z GEM this will be a non event for most of PDX Metro.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looking like about a 6inch average for the Puget Sound. Not bad...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah I agree. There is never really any offshore flow and cold pool in the Columbia Basin. Elevations above 1000 feet will do good and maybe 500 feet. This is just not the type of pattern for PDX Metro to score. Unless the Low comes in more like the 12z GEM this will be a non event for most of PDX Metro.

Not to be rude. BUT it's OUR turn!  

[MossMan]

The KING 18z...apparently.

[Heavy Snow]

18z snowfall thru Tuesday... Just Dandy for Puget Sounders. Still lala land range so this could bust quickly!

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_18.png

You're finally going to get some snow!

[Bryant]

The KING 18z...apparently.

Wasn't quite as good overall in my opinion. Snowfall totals aren't everything

[BLI snowman]

Heights aren't quite as low and there is a bit more energy thrown offshore when comparing to the 12z. Is that what you're seeing?

 

A tiny bit milder.

[Heavy Snow]

[epiceast]

Looking like about a 6inch average for the Puget Sound. Not bad...

8", 6" minimum. Hopefully at least 3" will verify

[luvssnow_spokane]

You're finally going to get some snow!

I hope...

 

It has not happened yet and with all the busts I have had over the last 5 years, this is far from likely at this point. Specially with it being so borderline now. If the models are consistent 24hours out from the event, then I say we have a chance.  At this point this could bust very quickly and honestly I am kinda-of expecting it based on the outcomes so far this year and the last 3 years... MANY busts... Even 36 hours out.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

8", 6" minimum. Hopefully at least 3" will verify

I would be okay with 2 inches.... That will be the most one day snow in almost 5 years. So yes!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wasn't quite as good overall in my opinion. Snowfall totals aren't everything

I agree, somewhat, as the overall setup is not as robust and a little more timid and edging to fail. All I care about is a win, not "how" I win.  Weeeee!!! Bring on the snow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sleeting here in Salem.

[Heavy Snow]

I hope...

 

It has not happened yet and with all the busts I have had over the last 5 years, this is far from likely at this point. Specially with it being so borderline now. If the models are consistent 24hours out from the event, then I say we have a chance. At this point this could bust very quickly and honestly I am kinda-of expecting based the outcomes so far this year and the last 3 years... MANY busts... Even 36 hours out.

That's why I'm hoping you get clobbered. I'd love to get snow at the same time as you do but if I can't get it then I'll root hard for you to get as much as possible. If you can get another days worth of good model runs for your area, I think you'll be in a great position to score.

[Randyc321]

Awfully late with the Sea AFD

[HighlandExperience]

18z GFS actually shows a little more for greater Puget Sound area than 12z.

Looks even better. If this holds another 24 hours we have legit reason to be excited.