February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

When would the majority of that fall? Happy to see this within a realistic timeframe.

I don't have access to the Euro snowfall maps, but it looks like Sunday afternoon-Monday night.

[Phil]

Verbatim, maybe 12:1 ratios in far northern WA? Don't even need to rely on an omega bomb this time..dendrites would be quite large regardless. Surface temps notwithstanding.

[Heavy Snow]

Verbatim, maybe 12:1 ratios in far northern WA? Don't even need to rely on an omega bomb this time..dendrites would be quite large regardless. Surface temps notwithstanding.

Do you think the low can track far enough south so PDX Metro can get pounded too?

[Phil]

Do you think the low can track far enough south so PDX Metro can get pounded too?

I have no idea. Not my area of expertise.

[TT-SEA]

When would the majority of that fall? Happy to see this within a realistic timeframe.

 

Sunday and Sunday night.  

[TT-SEA]

I don't have access to the Euro snowfall maps, but it looks like Sunday afternoon-Monday night.

 

Yes.    

 

But for Seattle the bulk of it is before late Sunday evening.  

 

In fact... the 12Z ECMWF shows a high of 40 in Seattle on Monday.

[Heavy Snow]

I hope to get some snow but in the end Mother Nature always balances itself out. Im preparing myself to get the short end of the stick so it wont hurt as bad next week. You guys up there are looking great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

East winds gusting to 51 mph at PDX holy crap.

[Deweydog]

That was you?

You get that many?

[FroYoBro]

East winds gusting to 51 mph at PDX holy crap.

This has been a pretty impressive downslope event for over 24 hours now. Still getting strong gusts way out in Beaverton. 

[Jesse]

This has been a pretty impressive downslope event for over 24 hours now. Still getting strong gusts way out in Beaverton.

Temps haven't been super impressive, but yeah one of the strongest metro wide east wind events in awhile.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Temps haven't been super impressive, but yeah one of the strongest metro wide east wind events in awhile.

It's not an impressive airmass, the dp s are impressive though and highs will still be 8-10 deg below average.

[stuffradio]

You get that many?

I send him one every other day.

[Deweydog]

Lots of blowing/drifting dust and gravel on the 500 near the mall.

[Bryant]

Sad to see these PDX people rooting for a south trend... share the wealth guys

[Heavy Snow]

The 12z JMA looks good.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017020212/jma_T850_namer_5.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017020212/jma_T850_namer_6.png

[Jesse]

I send him one every other day.

[FroYoBro]

Sad to see these PDX people rooting for a south trend... share the wealth guys

Here is something that will cheer you up.

 

It has no effect on what will happen! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cooler aloft (in the dendritic growth zones) over northern WA.

 

Improved crystal growth = improved ratios.

Thanks for contributing more on our local area.  

[seattleweatherguy]

So is it happenning?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sad to see these PDX people rooting for a south trend... share the wealth guys

You ll still get slammed if it goes 100 miles further south.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The JMA looks tremendous

[Jesse]

It's not an impressive airmass, the dp s are impressive though and highs will still be 8-10 deg below average.

Sure, but no one was calling for highs above 40 at PDX yesterday. It has "underachieved" slightly.

[FroYoBro]

You ll still get slammed if it goes 100 miles further south.

 

It would probably be better for most Washington posters if it came in further south than the Euro shows today. They would stay colder during/after the snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sure, but no one was calling for highs above 40 at PDX yesterday. It has "underachieved" slightly.

Yes I suppose, I guess I haven't been paying much attention to this airmass I never thought it had much potential.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought February would be warm so anything we get is gravy

[HighlandExperience]

Sad to see these PDX people rooting for a south trend... share the wealth guys

If Olympia north gets slammed this will be a special winter.

[Perturbed Member]

Sad to see these PDX people rooting for a south trend... share the wealth guys

I actually think a bit further south would increase snow for most of the WA posters here. 

[BLI snowman]

It would probably be better for most Washington posters if it came in further south than the Euro shows today. They would stay colder during/after the snow. 

 

Yes, this is a much moister pattern than mid January or mid December. Places look to get precip even well to the north of the lows on Sunday-Tuesday.

[TT-SEA]

41 with a dewpoint of 1 at SEA... primed for wet bulb tomorrow morning. 

[Timmy]

In bend, 17f and light blowing snow. Beautiful here. Crazy how much of a snow problem huge piles everywhere it is a mess!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In bend, 17f and light blowing snow. Beautiful here. Crazy how much of a snow problem huge piles everywhere it is a mess!

My friends Dad works for the Bulletin, they have had a huge problem getting their papers delivered!

[ShawniganLake]

I can't remember a winter where the east wind has penetrated into the Shawnigan lake area with so much frequency. Some years we go the entire winter without an east wind day here.

[jakeinthevalley]

If SLE makes it to 50f today will there still be a chance of wet bulb cooling off the entire column?

[DareDuck]

In bend, 17f and light blowing snow. Beautiful here. Crazy how much of a snow problem huge piles everywhere it is a mess!

Pretty much been that way for almost a month. It was nice to get a little dusting on top to cover up the dirt on top of the old snow.

[FroYoBro]

If SLE makes it to 50f today will there still be a chance of wet bulb cooling off the entire column?

No. I don't think anywhere in the lowlands of western Oregon is going to get snow tonight. I'm starting to think that places won't even get any freezing rain either. The Portland area may seem some light freezing rain early in the morning though. 

[DareDuck]

[umadbro]

If SLE makes it to 50f today will there still be a chance of wet bulb cooling off the entire column?

Pretty much what I said a couple days ago. This will be a non event. Even if you stay in the low 40's. You'll get down to 33 or 34 at the coolest.

 

Maybe Mark should watch out for his job, eh Jess?

[jakeinthevalley]

No. I don't think anywhere in the lowlands of western Oregon is going to get snow tonight. I'm starting to think that places won't even get any freezing rain either. 

Sarcasm font was turned off!!

 

No chance of anything unless we can stay clear and lose the downsloping  component. Dewpoints would allow quick radiational cooling.

 

I see MFR is up to a daffodil popping 60f at Noon

[Bryant]