February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The 18z Weatherbell maps are going for 27 Monday morning for Seattle.  We'll have to keep an eye on the North Interior tomorrow night.  Even the NWS is going for northerlies to 25 Monday morning.  I would love to get some sub freezing air in here with this.

[snow_wizard]

So, Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 seem like OK analogs. Maybe a further north version of Feb 1993?

 

This is way more moisture overall than Feb 1993.  I've been meaning to take a look at Dec 1974.  I still remember that one.  All day rain followed by a big dump.

[TT-SEA]

The 18z Weatherbell maps are going for 27 Monday morning for Seattle. We'll have to keep an eye on the North Interior tomorrow night. Even the NWS is going for northerlies to 25 Monday morning. I would love to get some sub freezing air in here with this.

The ECMWF will be right. The GFS temp maps are a joke. Just look at the ECMWF for your answer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am putting the over under for precip here tomorrow at 3" and taking the over. 

[MossMan]

So, Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 seem like OK analogs. Maybe a further north version of Feb 1993?

I did well with the Feb. 2001 event. Dec. 2005 was not memorable for my area.

[Brennan]

13" and counting.

[snow_wizard]

I did well with the Feb. 2001 event. Dec. 2005 was not memorable for my area.

 

Dec 2005 was decent here.  A few inches.  This one is more dynamic though.

[snow_wizard]

13" and counting.

 

Is that at your place?

[Guest Dome Buster]

Barring temps being 1-3 degrees above modeled, I think widespread 4-6 inches is a good possibility for greater Puget Sound. Especially now that the 18z GFS and 18z NAM look more favorable.

18z models are the worst of all of them. You know better.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF will be right. The GFS temp maps are a joke. Just look at the ECMWF for your answer.

 

 

I just have a feeling on this one.

[snow_wizard]

18z models are the worst of all of them. You know better.

 

You're making a joke out of yourself.  How much deeper of a hole are you going to dig?

[HighlandExperience]

18z models are the worst of all of them. You know better.

You are getting annoying. Do something constructive with yourself.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13" and counting.

 

No more complaining lol

[umadbro]

You're making a joke out of yourself. How much deeper of a hole are you going to dig?

Doesn't really matter. You think he's a troll. (he isnt). Its his opinion. It really isn't a big deal.

[TT-SEA]

I just have a feeling on this one.

Make sure to give me credit on Monday.

[Deweydog]

So, Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 seem like OK analogs. Maybe a further north version of Feb 1993?

1993 was much more of a classic overrunning. Tons of wet bulb help at onset, then sustained by good north side deformation.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Doesn't really matter. You think he's a troll. (he isnt). Its his opinion. It really isn't a big deal.

Finally a voice of reason in this place. It ISNT going to snow in Seattle, just get over it.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS has to go for a WSW now.

 

I'm going all in for Monday mornings low being 27 to 31 for the Central Puget Sound. 

[umadbro]

Finally a voice of reason in this place. It ISNT going to snow in Seattle, just get over it.

I think it will snow in Seattle.

 

Just amazed at all the snowflakes on this forum.

[bainbridgekid]

Give me your high and low on Monday and Tuesday for SEA?

I'd go 37 Monday and 39 Tuesday.

 

Depends how long convergence/snow showers hang around during the day Monday and how cloudy Tuesday ends up. Appreciable sun would likely get them close to 40 Monday and into the low 40's Tuesday, but convergence hanging around after Noon Monday would keep them around 35.

 

Is that at your place?

No, that's East of Sumas.

 

Brennan's been getting freezing rain at this place.

[snow_wizard]

Finally a voice of reason in this place. It ISNT going to snow in Seattle, just get over it.

 

  :lol:

[Guest Dome Buster]

1993 was much more of a classic overrunning. Tons of wet bulb help at onset, then sustained by good north side deformation.

Hard to compare yet as we don't know the intensity of the low level cold air mass yet, the aggressiveness.

 

Intensity, not density, lol.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I think it will snow in Seattle.

 

Just amazed at all the snowflakes on this forum.

It'll snow just North of Seattle and just South.

[MossMan]

Mud!! This is what below freezing temps with no snow cover does to healthy turf that has traffic on it.

[umadbro]

  :lol:

Brilliant.

[Jesse]

Hard to compare yet as we don't know the intensity of the low level cold air mass yet, the aggressiveness.

 

Intensity, not density, lol.

Stop spreading pseudoscience.

[snow_wizard]

I'd go 37 Monday and 39 Tuesday.

 

Depends how long convergence/snow showers hang around during the day Monday and how cloudy Tuesday ends up. Appreciable sun would likely get them close to 40 Monday and into the low 40's Tuesday.

 

No, that's East of Sumas.

 

 

Pretty darn warm.  The models are all going lower for the highs.

 

I think Monday could have a daytime high of 32 or 33.  The temp may be warmer at midnight though.

[umadbro]

One thing is for sure. If the Puget sound gets the shaft again, snow wizard will be MIA again.

[Jesse]

Brilliant.

Did it make u mad little snowflake?

[Front Ranger]

1993 was much more of a classic overrunning. Tons of wet bulb help at onset, then sustained by good north side deformation.

How about a slightly colder version of Nov 1996?

[TT-SEA]

Pretty darn warm. The models are all going lower for the highs.

 

I think Monday could have a daytime high of 32 or 33. The temp may be warmer at midnight though.

This is going to be easy.

 

33 on Monday morning... 37 or 38 in the afternoon. Maybe 40 on Tuesday if there is any sun.

 

ECMWF and GFS MOS will be close.

[snow_wizard]

Mud!! This is what below freezing temps with no snow cover does to healthy turf that has traffic on it.

 

Not looking like turf anymore.

[Deweydog]

How about a slightly colder version of Nov 1996?

 

That was a good one.  November 2003 and March 2012 are good matches.  

[BLI snowman]

So, Feb 2001 and Dec 2005 seem like OK analogs. Maybe a further north version of Feb 1993?

Not too much like 1993 at all.

[MossMan]

How about a slightly colder version of Nov 1996?

I had over a foot for that one!

[snow_wizard]

One thing is for sure. If the Puget sound gets the shaft again, snow wizard will be MIA again.

 

I think you and the other guy may be the same person.  Wouldn't shock me at all.

[Front Ranger]

The NWS has to go for a WSW now.

 

I'm going all in for Monday mornings low being 27 to 31 for the Central Puget Sound.

I have a hard time seeing it get that cold with precip. 30-33 seems more likely.

[Deweydog]

Pretty darn warm.  The models are all going lower for the highs.

 

I think Monday could have a daytime high of 32 or 33.  The temp may be warmer at midnight though.

 

I hope you aren't pinning your mental well-being on this.  You should get some snow, but temps are going to be right around freezing during the heart of the event up your way.  

[BLI snowman]

That was a good one. November 2003 and March 2012 are good matches.

Also looking really similar to 2/24/1994 IMO.

[seattleweatherguy]

This is going to be easy.

 

33 on Monday morning... 37 or 38 in the afternoon. Maybe 40 on Tuesday if there is any sun.

 

ECMWF and GFS MOS will be close.

 

I'm going out on a limb and saying 36 monday and 41 tuesday. Just guessing