March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[charlie]

Check out how long, skinny, and well-defined the front currently offshore is! It doesn't look as impressive on satellite, but the 500 hPa vorticity field is certainly eye-catching. This front has tapped into some subtropical moisture, so that could be the reason it is surprisingly well-defined.

 

[TT-SEA]

Awesome day... lots of sun.

 

First mowing happening this weekend.

[luminen]

Low clouds hanging against the mountains in Downtown Vancouver. Feels amazing outside.

 

How long are you here for? You should visit the North Shore side (which is where those mountains are), it's even nicer.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Awesome day... lots of sun.

 

First mowing happening this weekend.

 

Was more of a sun filtering through clouds day here. Now it's windy and rainy at the edge of that offshore vortex. I can hear the rain slamming against the windows, definitely an impressive looking storm for late March.

[BLI snowman]

Up over 7" of rain here now for the month, 200+% of average.

 

March has become a very reliably wet month for us this decade. 2013 was the only real dry one, with 2011, 2012, 2014, and now this year being extremely wet. 

[Phil]

Looks like 1943 is a good warm season SSTA analog.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9DFB103-868F-4450-9B61-9D9FDA5B036B_zpskv1j5lis.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like 1943 is a good warm season SSTA analog.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9DFB103-868F-4450-9B61-9D9FDA5B036B_zpskv1j5lis.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png

Cold summer possible?

[Phil]

Cold summer possible?

Yeah, at least the first half of it.

[TT-SEA]

1943 was an awesome warm season here.    I had not looked closely at that summer before.

 

April was spectacular... then wet/cool first half of May.

 

Then it only rained on 12 days from 6/1 through 10/10.  

 

No extreme heat at all... just endless upper 70s and low 80s and sunny.    Absolute perfection.  

[Phil]

1943 was an awesome warm season here. I had not looked closely at that summer before.

 

April was spectacular... then wet/cool first half of May.

 

Then it only rained on 12 days from 6/1 through 10/10.

 

No extreme heat at all... just endless upper 70s and low 80s and sunny. Absolute perfection.

Yeah, looks like more of a cool/dry summer as opposed to a wetter one like 2010 or 2011. Still on the troughier side though.

 

Also miserable east of the Rockies.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/02F656F9-67A4-40EB-B5B8-4B5617CD0E84_zpsk5gvcie0.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6DF82C26-3FF8-4810-A79B-F2934A718AAF_zpsjta5i8ul.png

[Phil]

Will be interesting to see if we can maintain a +NAO/Baffin Bay vortex this summer. Recent summers have featured a strong tendency for dipole anomaly there, which has contributed significantly to sea ice loss.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B0D598DD-4448-45AA-A3B2-9D87ABD9ED66_zpsjlfee2dz.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like there were some gusts of over 60mph with sustained wind speeds of around 50mph. Sunny and calm this morning, no obvious signs of the storm that blew through last night.

[Jesse]

I wish we were getting more cold systems that would bring snow levels down to pass elevation or below. We've only got another month or so where storms can reliably do that. Need to build that snow pack.

[Geos]

Showery morning, but looking like it will clear out somewhat in a bit. 0.37" of rain from this system here.

 

[Geos]

Great day yesterday. Got some shots deep up in the Middle Fork Snoqualmie Valley where winter still hangs on.

 

 

[DareDuck]

I wish we were getting more cold systems that would bring snow levels down to pass elevation or below. We've only got another month or so where storms can reliably do that. Need to build that snow pack.

Bachelor picked up 10" since last night. Just what the doctor ordered. Even Santiam was snow covered earlier.

[Jesse]

We had a ridiculously intense but short-lived hail shower in central Vancouver around 3pm.

[luminen]

I saw one lightning flash today while walking around 1PM. Didn't hear any thunder though.

 

There's also some huge snow piles still sitting at the Canada Way exit of Hwy 1 in Burnaby. 

[Jesse]

We had a ridiculously intense but short-lived hail shower in central Vancouver around 3pm.

 

Apparently that same intense little cell spawned a EF-0 tornado in Orchards about 15 minutes later.

 

http://www.columbian.com/news/2017/mar/24/small-tornado-causes-damage-in-orchards/

 

Doesn't surprise me that this went on to get some rotation, considering the way the wind picked up and hail dumped down so suddenly. It dumped enough hail to almost completely cover the ground in the span of about 10-15 seconds, coupled with a very abrupt bust of wind. From inside the first thing I thought was that a big airplane was flying overhead.

[Tyler Mode]

Pretty happy with my forecast today, though a broken clock is right two times a day...

 

Anyway, I just so happened to be at my parents house when we heard a crack of thunder.  The clouds were definitely rotating, as showed on radar.  However, after the hail etc passed, thought it was done.  Told them the threat for a tornado for us was over.  Turns out it his just SE of our location.  On the map, their house is on the very bottom left.

 

Obviously a very weak tornado, but a pretty decently long path as it skipped along, downing a couple trees, but mainly doing fence/gazebo damage.  I saw no structure damage to houses, not even missing shingles.

[luminen]

Ah, Vancouver, WA, the tornado capital of the western PNW. 

[BLI snowman]

That little guy did some damage to the roof of one of my friend's garage.  Pretty jealous!

[BLI snowman]

Ah, Vancouver, WA, the tornado capital of the western PNW. 

 

Yeah, they're not that rare around here really. We average about one every year in Clark County.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, they're not that rare around here really. We average about one every year in Clark County.

Never saw a tornado the 4 years I lived in Oklahoma. Lots of nice tstorms though. Pretty nice run of the mill tstorm in progress here as I type. Interested to see how much rain is in the rain gauge when I get home tomorrow. I ll miss the 82/56 type days too. Been nice.

[dairyd]

If that would just move west about 100 miles...

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Took my daughter to UW in Seattle this morning to see the cherry blossoms... 

 

 

[Jesse]

If that would just move west about 100 miles...

 

 

500z_30a.rnl.gif

500z_07a.rnl.gif

You must mean east. We need Mountain snow!

[Timmy Supercell]

You must mean east. We need Mountain snow!

 

I thought the mountains did more than good this season?

 

Time for Spring, more showers, some t'storms, supercells thrown in there... the works.

[Jesse]

I thought the mountains did more than good this season?

 

Time for Spring, more showers, some t'storms, supercells thrown in there... the works.

Mountain snow is a pretty normal part of spring.

 

They did well but we don't want it melting too fast!

[Dave]

The snowpack at Crater Lake is holding on decently.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Ufi3bn7.jpg

[epiceast]

Mountain snow is a pretty normal part of spring.

 

They did well but we don't want it melting too fast!

Yea I'm worried about last years repeat. I didn't think that mountain snow could melt fast, but last year proved me wrong.

[Jesse]

Yea I'm worried about last years repeat. I didn't think that mountain snow could melt fast, but last year proved me wrong.

Luckily there isn't any 85-90 degree weather on tap for the west side so far, which we had by the first week of April last year. That was a ridiculous month.

[snow_wizard]

Yea I'm worried about last years repeat. I didn't think that mountain snow could melt fast, but last year proved me wrong.

 

There is just no way on Earth to compare this to last year.  This year has been much colder.  People are way too worried about this.

[epiceast]

There is just no way on Earth to compare this to last year.  This year has been much colder.  People are way too worried about this.

Utah basically had that in March. LCC had maybe 3 or 4 feet of snow on south facing slopes at 9k-10k' when I went there this spring break.

[Jesse]

Utah basically had that in March. LCC had maybe 3 or 4 feet of snow on south facing slopes at 9k-10k' when I went there this spring break.

Had what? Some of your posts are really confusing.

[epiceast]

Had what? Some of your posts are really confusing.

Two record warm weeks with 70F in the valleys? Also it followed a winter that brought 150-200% average snowpack.

[Jesse]

Two record warm weeks with 70F in the valleys? Also it followed a winter that brought 150-200% average snowpack.

Oh, I think you may have responded to Jim's post accidentally.

[dairyd]

You must mean east. We need Mountain snow!

 

The mountain snow is there, the only pack that really matters for watershed is >5000' anyways and that won't start melting until June because of of how it was so thoroughly built up this winter. 

 

And no, I mean east.  When the precip is almost 200% of average and storage is full we need a break.  Sun needs to come out, soil need to dry out, things need to start growing.  Sure you southerners already caught the spring break to 60'.  But we haven't reached that yet and there is a big difference in the plant world between 50' and 60'.  In fact all of the difference in some of the metabolism pathways.

[Jesse]

The mountain snow is there, the only pack that really matters for watershed is >5000' anyways and that won't start melting until June because of of how it was so thoroughly built up this winter.

 

And no, I mean east. When the precip is almost 200% of average and storage is full we need a break. Sun needs to come out, soil need to dry out, things need to start growing. Sure you southerners already caught the spring break to 60'. But we haven't reached that yet and there is a big difference in the plant world between 50' and 60'. In fact all of the difference in some of the metabolism pathways.

We've only hit 60 twice so far. But all in all this month has been pretty close to average down here. Just a hair below.

 

And the warmth will eventually come. It always does. The plants are probably appreciating the long winter's nap after being woken up a month or two early the last few years. I like having green trees in the summer time, not ones that look stressed and dying by the end of July.

[dairyd]

We've only hit 60 twice so far. But all in all this month has been pretty close to average down here. Just a hair below.

 

And the warmth will eventually come. It always does. The plants are probably appreciating the long winter's nap after being woken up a month or two early the last few years. I like having green trees in the summer time, not ones that look stressed and dying by the end of July.

Many of the plants I care about are dead or under water.  not sure what their opinion is of that. Do plants have opinions? 

 

You are talking about drought exceptions not seen in decades, I'm not certain if those conditions can be replicated in our lifetimes.  The only trees I saw struggle in this area were non-native.  Even the cottonwood, while looking dead all survived.    Also, the water table is back to near surface here...it is a mountain source, semi-confined aquifer fed off of 3 different outlflows.  It hasn't been this high since the drought...I think your water fears are overstated.