Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 00z EURO showing a strong low tracking through W NE up towards the western Lakes. This would be ideal for severe wx for a lot of posters in the Plains. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017031700/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_8.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 Second half of March looks very wet where it has been very dry... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017031700/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_60.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 The pattern is about to get real active as strong storms will begin to pound the west as the LRC's long term long wave trough sets up in the west for the remainder of March and into April. The potential is there for a very active Spring severe wx season for the central CONUS. What happens in the Summer is still up in the air as to how dry the pattern gets and where the "Ring of Fire" pattern aligns. Let's discuss the possible storm systems and pattern leading up to what will be a fun season of storm tracking. CFSv2 still showing a very wet pattern in April... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd1.gif May... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecMonInd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 I'm liking those blobs of heavy moisture over Nebraska in April and May. Could be a fun, but hopefully not too dangerous/destructive severe weather season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 I'm liking those blobs of heavy moisture over Nebraska in April and May. Could be a fun, but hopefully not too dangerous/destructive severe weather season.This could be your year for tracking severe wx. I like the chances of an active season for you guys out that way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 Western KS may be the ones who cash in on Thursday. Only thing lacking for the tornado potential are SRH and EHI values all across the region. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 This would ease the drought worries!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 @ CFS maps Glad to see "avg" precip for mby in SMI. Don't need/want tons of rain and not a huge severe wx fan. Y'all out west of me can have fun with that though. Footnote on winter though. Amazing stat for Binghampton, NY Last winter they got only 32" total of snow (avg ~83") which was their all-time lowest total ever. After the Tue-wed bliz they're at almost 128" and just a few inches shy of their all-time snowiest winter. Talk about getting extremes! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 17, 2017 Report Share Posted March 17, 2017 These are some beautiful hodographs! Still a long ways to go unfortunately.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2017 I like these met's maps for severe wx potential later next week...still plenty of time for change...if this map comes close to verifying, I can see a pattern already developing since our severe wx outbreak in Feb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 19, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 19, 2017 Severe wx threat shifting west... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 19, 2017 Report Share Posted March 19, 2017 Severe wx threat shifting west... Going to have to keep pulling it west as the system is moving much slower now. Also not looking like much of a threat for Thursday anymore with limited moisture/CAPE. Friday might end up being the bigger day this way as now the Euro moves the lower further north/northeast vs previous runs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2017 Pretty impressive nocturnal MCS overnight and likely will be a theme heading into this Spring/Summer season. Almost seems like a summer time pattern but a couple months early??? Spring has officially sprung in an active way around here. Big time heat ridge over the southern plains provided fuel for the fire last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 20, 2017 Report Share Posted March 20, 2017 Pretty impressive nocturnal MCS overnight and likely will be a theme heading into this Spring/Summer season. Almost seems like a summer time pattern but a couple months early??? Spring has officially sprung in an active way around here. Big time heat ridge over the southern plains provided fuel for the fire last night. LOL, I had the exact same thoughts that it reminded me of the ROF pattern just earlier in the year. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2017 Both GFS/EURO looking very similar for Fri... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017032012/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017032012/gfs_mslp_uv850_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 Severe threat is shifting S/SE as we get closer to the Thu/Fri/Sat period. Hopefully many areas get a good soaker that will allow the dry ground to soak in the much needed moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted March 21, 2017 Report Share Posted March 21, 2017 Hopefully that system goes away from SE wisconsin. The further S/SE we go the happier I'll be. I'll get one last weekend at my hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 SPC has NE outlooked for severe wx... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gif ...Central Plains, southern High Plains...Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop ina regime of intense/deep mixing near the dryline and movenortheastward across the central/southern High Plains from lateafternoon into early evening. Activity will cross a narrow corridorof relatively maximized MLCINH corresponding to strong heating,steep low/middle-level lapse rates, increasing large-scale lift, anda proximal surface moist axis characterized by dew points generally50s F. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main concerns,amidst vertical wind profiles suitable for both supercells andorganized multicellular structures. Some of this activity maycongeal into a broken band of convection this evening as theovertaking Pacific front supplies additional low-level forcing;however, weakening near-surface instability with time and eastwardextent will help to mitigate lingering severe threat therewith.Farther north, a mesoscale reservoir of relatively maximizedlow-level moisture -- characterized by dew points mid-upper 50s F on11Z-12Z surface charts and 0.8-1.1-inch PW in GPS readings -- wasevident over northwestern OK and southern KS, and was sampled tosome extent by the 12Z DDC sounding. This area of moisture mayreach the vicinity of the developing frontal zone oversouthern/central NE relatively unperturbed by strong mixing, whileunderlying a regime of cold air aloft with 8.5-9 deg C/km midlevellapse rates this afternoon, amidst weakening MLCINH andstrengthening lift. That combination may support a pocket of2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE amidst 50-kt effective-shear magnitude,suitable for supercell character with any relativelysustained/discrete storm(s) that can develop and move into theregime. While coverage of any such convection is in question,precluding a greater unconditional probability line at this time,isolated very large hail or even a tornado cannot be ruled out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 12z NAM 3km showing some cells popping in S/SE NE tomorrow... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017032312/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_35.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 23, 2017 Report Share Posted March 23, 2017 SPC has NE outlooked for severe wx... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/activity_loop.gifyeah could have been a great day if the dewpoints were higher! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 people killed in car accident while chasing a tornado in TX. Just a reminder of the inherited risk that comes along with chasing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 people killed in car accident while chasing a tornado in TX. Just a reminder of the inherited risk that comes along with chasing.I read somewhere that it looks like someone blew past a stop sign which caused the fatal accident. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Here is an article about the tragic accident. Kelley Williamson was just in MKE tracking the lake effect snow storm not long ago. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/three-storm-chasers-die-in-car-crash-on-tuesday-afternoon/70001248 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I remember watching him yesterday afternoon streaming live near Lubbock, TX tracking a Tornado warned storm. Literally, this was prob right before the accident happened. How fragile life can be. I will remember hearing his gentle, southern accent on TWC. God bless him, his friends who passed away, as well as his family. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Some of you know I do quite a bit of chasing and honestly this is what scares me the most about chasing, not getting hurt or killed by a storm, but rather the driving and risks that come along with that especially when you can have so many people congested in one place. I feel like I have always given attention to intersections and stop signs, and when I have my chase partner with, he does a good job looking as well. Of course it only takes one time, and I'm sure I've missed something a time or two.I remember shortly after the El Reno tornado having what happened to Tim Samaras and his partners on my mind all the time when chasing which slowly faded away. Now this will definitely be on my mind as well this season and hopefully going forward for future years. Condolences to everyone involved. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 I read somewhere that it looks like someone blew past a stop sign which caused the fatal accident.The driver blew through multiple stop signs through the chase at least from the stream I saw which is irresponsible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 The driver blew through multiple stop signs through the chase at least from the stream I saw which is irresponsibleThe video I saw on the TWC looked like his car was streaming live and they cut the next scene right before the accident. So what your saying is making sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 The video I saw on the TWC looked like his car was streaming live and they cut the next scene right before the accident. So what your saying is making sense.Yeah his live stream from yesterday that lasted for a couple of hours showed him running at least 3-4 stop signs from what other people are saying. Definitely not responsible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted March 29, 2017 Report Share Posted March 29, 2017 Yeah his live stream from yesterday that lasted for a couple of hours showed him running at least 3-4 stop signs from what other people are saying. Definitely not responsible.I've never chased so don't know any better, but are you expected to obey the rules of the road when a tornado is in close proximity? Also don't know the situation that unfolded here - were they speeding towards or away from the storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 30, 2017 Report Share Posted March 30, 2017 I've never chased so don't know any better, but are you expected to obey the rules of the road when a tornado is in close proximity? Also don't know the situation that unfolded here - were they speeding towards or away from the storm?I think it is expected that everyone follows the rules at all times. Now if a tornado was racing at me at 60 mph, I might not follow all the rules. I know how to chase though and where to be so I have yet to have that happen to me.Unfortunately, you see a lot of dumb people out chasing that don't follow the rules, whether that be speeding, stopping in the middle of the road, passing multiple cars at a time, etc. Out in the country, I think a fair amount of people choose not to always obey stop signs at seemingly desolate intersections because they assume no one will be coming from the other way.From my understanding yesterday, these people weren't in any kind of danger where they were having to drive recklessly away from a storm. They were chasing it, presumably heading towards it or parallel to it or however you want to call it. It just sounds like the driver of one of the vehicles was either distracted or chose to ignore the stop sign. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 1, 2017 Report Share Posted April 1, 2017 I like it. I'm good with normal temperatures this summer. Wouldn't mind below average though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 1, 2017 Report Share Posted April 1, 2017 I am looking forward to damaging storms, although, not tornadic activity. Wouldn't want any damage done on my home. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 2, 2017 Report Share Posted April 2, 2017 I am looking forward to damaging storms, although, not tornadic activity. Wouldn't want any damage done on my home. We want tornadic activity. Just in places where it won't cause any property or personal damage. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 4, 2017 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Next Monday looks like there could be another large swath of severe wx across the eastern corn belt/Lakes region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 4, 2017 Report Share Posted April 4, 2017 Next Monday looks like there could be another large swath of severe wx across the eastern corn belt/Lakes region... Please god give us some severe weather out here. Even that is managing to go around us right now, I would KILL for a good storm to roll through this weekend! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Can't wait until NAM comes into range with this severe wx threat. It'll help to let us know of any location biases the GFS may potentially be having. Euro is a nudge more West with the better severe threats, which bleeds into my forecast territory. Not seeing the same long-lasting tornado threat I saw with yesterday's model runs, but this does have the potential to be an outbreak of general severe weather. The question, aside from location is a) Can a pretty strong cap be broken and b ) Will EHI values trend more upward, as that and LL Lapse Rates seem to be the greatest weaknesses right now. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 We want tornadic activity. Just in places where it won't cause any property or personal damage. Do you consider crops to be property? I do. Most people's livelihood around here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Do you consider crops to be property? I do. Most people's livelihood around here... The growing season hasn't technically started yet. But yes, they are property. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 Can't wait until NAM comes into range with this severe wx threat. It'll help to let us know of any location biases the GFS may potentially be having. Euro is a nudge more West with the better severe threats, which bleeds into my forecast territory. Not seeing the same long-lasting tornado threat I saw with yesterday's model runs, but this does have the potential to be an outbreak of general severe weather. The question, aside from location is a) Can a pretty strong cap be broken and b ) Will EHI values trend more upward, as that and LL Lapse Rates seem to be the greatest weaknesses right now. I'm hoping the tornado threat comes back. No I don't want destruction either but those type of outbreaks are always accustomed by more intense severe threats as well. Hope the EURO is on to something, I'm also really anxious to see the NAM. Also, it's supposed to be 76 and sunny on Saturday!! Can't wait to lay out and grill all day #daydrinking 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 5, 2017 Report Share Posted April 5, 2017 GFS has been fairly consistent in placing the biggest threat of severe weather around NW Missouri. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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