March 2014 Observations and Discussions

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

this is the temp forecast for the next two weeks one week we will be neutral and the next week i'll be slightly below normal but not bad.

[DominicR]

18z NAM bring quick system up this way as S/W gets cut and a piece runs into the northern stream. A quick mod snow event here or close by.

[DominicR]

84hr

[Tom]

Strat Warming starting to buldge into the upper stratosphere similar to what we had happen back in early February.  This could spell a very cold finish to the month of March into the open of April.

 

Edit: Here is the link...

 

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml

 

This one may be larger than the previous SSW event.  Will keep on eye on this over the next week.

[East Dubzz]

Wow, high of 49 forecasted on Monday, and talking about another warm-up later this week where the high on Friday could reach just about the same!

[NEJeremy]

i was looking that we are currently under a +epo and by the 18th of this month that we will looking at -epo that was domnating our winter.

You have 215 posts and probably 200 of them have said the same thing 2 or 3 things. Good lord you flood this board.... and you're period button apparently still isn't working so you're posts are almost impossible to read.

 

I don't think this winter is just going to shut itself off on the 16th or the 18th or whatever date you keep throwing out. Patterns like this just don't flip overnight. I can see the snow chances going into April easily especially your guys' way, even if the ice on the lake has broken up. Sorry but that isn't going to be the sole factor in the Lakes weather this spring.

 

Meanwhile out here we are supposed to be 63-68 tomorrow and Monday and almost that warm again on Thursday. Bring it on, it's going to feel wonderful!!

[Iowawx]

84hr

Hopefully that comes north. Otherwise we are done with snow here in Iowa. 

[Tom]

I wouldn't say your done with the snow.  We are only 8 days into March.  Chances are it will snow into April here and there.  Winter ain't over if you like snow, especially if the SSW event takes place and we all know how temps reacted the last week of February into the open of March for the SSW event back in late Jan/early Feb.  If we do melt snow cover, so be it, I'm still trying to push for the all-time snow record to be broken so this historic winter can be remember for that.

[james1976]

Hopefully that comes north. Otherwise we are done with snow here in Iowa. 

just cuz we may not get snow in the next 84 hours doesnt mean it's done for the season.

[james1976]

I wouldn't say your done with the snow.  We are only 8 days into March.  Chances are it will snow into April here and there.  Winter ain't over if you like snow, especially if the SSW event takes place and we all know how temps reacted the last week of February into the open of March for the SSW event back in late Jan/early Feb.  If we do melt snow cover, so be it, I'm still trying to push for the all-time snow record to be broken so this historic winter can be remember for that.

Exactly. Waterloo only needs 3.6" to break the all-time record. Gotta happen!

[Iowawx]

I wouldn't say your done with the snow.  We are only 8 days into March.  Chances are it will snow into April here and there.  Winter ain't over if you like snow, especially if the SSW event takes place and we all know how temps reacted the last week of February into the open of March for the SSW event back in late Jan/early Feb.  If we do melt snow cover, so be it, I'm still trying to push for the all-time snow record to be broken so this historic winter can be remember for that.

I know Tom, but long range models don't look promising and a lot of our snow will be gone soon.

[james1976]

i could care less for the lrc matter of fact that i trust noaa than the lrc that shouldn't exist.

Dude, sorry.....but this is the worst and most wrong post i have seen you puke out yet. NOAA has been off all winter and LRC is the way to go. LRC has been proven to be accurate time and time again.

[DominicR]

Hopefully that comes north. Otherwise we are done with snow here in Iowa. 

 

 

18z GFS still hinting it but more of a weak surpressed EC system. Not looking like a big dog possibility right now regardless as piece of wave hangs back.

[MKEstorm]

You have 215 posts and probably 200 of them have said the same thing 2 or 3 things. Good lord you flood this board.... and you're period button apparently still isn't working so you're posts are almost impossible to read.

 

I don't think this winter is just going to shut itself off on the 16th or the 18th or whatever date you keep throwing out. Patterns like this just don't flip overnight. I can see the snow chances going into April easily especially your guys' way, even if the ice on the lake has broken up. Sorry but that isn't going to be the sole factor in the Lakes weather this spring.

 

Meanwhile out here we are supposed to be 63-68 tomorrow and Monday and almost that warm again on Thursday. Bring it on, it's going to feel wonderful!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

+1,000

[MKEstorm]

This warmth is making me happy, but it does look like we are done with the snow for this winter.  Expected to hit 50 here on Monday.

 

I wouldn't be so sure. With the storm track still to the south of us, anything can still happen...and it's still early March!

[Geos]

Regarding a SSW event. SSW events don't have the same effect in March as they do during met winter. The PV is already weakening with the higher sun angle - a process I learned all about in an atmospherics class. If the AO stays positive then most of the cold air will stay north.

If a SSW were to unleash a cold outbreak during a +AO it would probably head into another geographic area. Possibly the west or Europe.

[tim the weatherman]

Regarding a SSW event. SSW events don't have the same effect in March as they do during met winter. The PV is already weakening with the higher sun angle - a process I learned all about in an atmospherics class. If the AO stays positive then most of the cold air will stay north.

If a SSW were to unleash a cold outbreak during a +AO it would probably head into another geographic area. Possibly the west or Europe.

that is a good geos that we are done with artic air now that i heard that we are getting mild spells and cold shots that don't last very long that  both tom skilling at wgn tv and evan myers of accuweather has said thati am thinking that we will have a +ao for the rest of the month.

[DominicR]

This warmth is making me happy, but it does look like we are done with the snow for this winter.  Expected to hit 50 here on Monday.

 

For most part agree but would not doubt another storm prehaps or a few weak snow systems into early April. What a winter here. Will never be forgotten! 6 of last 8 winters have been awesome.

[Geos]

that is a good geos that we are done with artic air now that i heard that we are getting mild spells and cold shots that don't last very long that  both tom skilling at wgn tv and evan myers of accuweather has said thati am thinking that we will have a +ao for the rest of the month.

 

I should add that a +NAO usually is the result of a +AO and that's why we usually don't see Arctic attacks during those phases.

 

Anyway, let's concentrate on this coming week. Kind of up and down temperature speaking.

 

Hit 28° here during the day, but the high was at midnight; 32°.

[tim the weatherman]

I should add that a +NAO usually is the result of a +AO and that's why we usually don't see Arctic attacks during those phases.

 

Anyway, let's concentrate on this coming week. Kind of up and down temperature speaking.

 

Hit 28° here during the day, but the high was at midnight; 32°.

but the epo and the wpo will go into negative at mid month so that means that the blocking will come back.

[Geos]

but the epo and the wpo will go into negative at mid month so that means that the blocking will come back.

 

Yes, but not near Greenland. The jet stream won't be routed into the northeast/east then.

[tim the weatherman]

Yes, but not near Greenland. The jet stream won't be routed into the northeast/east then.

the negative epo and wpo will be short lived.

[Tom]

00z GFS Fantasy Land....ORD is at 75.5" for the season.  Do the math...

[abhidupage]

00z GFS Fantasy Land....ORD is at 75.5" for the season.  Do the math...

LOL and that'd be a slap in the face to weatherman24 saying winter is over the 16th. Perfect time period to prove him wrong if this even somewhat verified.

[FiNsTa]

00z GFS Fantasy Land....ORD is at 75.5" for the season.  Do the math...

Won't happen. Sorry!

[Scott26]

00z GFS Fantasy Land....ORD is at 75.5" for the season.  Do the math...

nearly 2 inches of QPF from that storm all snow. Probably the most ridiculous fantasy run seen all winter. It will probably be gone by next run, but wow.

[Geos]

nearly 2 inches of QPF from that storm all snow. Probably the most ridiculous fantasy run seen all winter. It will probably be gone by next run, but wow.

 

+1

 

Looks like something the DGEX would do. 

+ teleconnections during that time...

[Tom]

Ya, no kidding, and the way this winter has been going...I wouldn't be surprised to have 1 more big one before winter's over.  There is a storm on the horizon following mid week next week that fits the east Asian theory.  So we'll see if this storm even evolves.

[abhidupage]

+1

 

Looks like something the DGEX would do. 

+ teleconnections during that time...

Agreed, I'm not going to sweat until any other model shows anything to this extent or gfs stays consistent for several runs which won't happen more than likely

[Tom]

@ Geo's, teleconnections don't support next week's system to blow up the OV and east coast...so what's your point???  All season long we had a +NAO and even a SKY high +AO in December reaching nearly +4 around Dec 16th.  Guess what, the pattern is cycling and by March 16th the AO will most likely reach +4 again before heading back down to negative territory in April.  By then, if SSW event takes place and AO is negative, don't be surprised to see snow flakes falling from the sky.

[Geos]

I saw this storm a couple runs back and it was in Canada. There no consistency to the GFS lately. One thing that helps make the teleconnections work is an active MJO, which is occurring now.

 

I agree with abhi's post. Until other models pick it up, it's fantasy.

[Tom]

I agree, it is Fantasy Land and I'm not saying it will happen for sure.  I posted it for eye candy and to spark convo.  On the other, would I like to see this happen...Yes!  It would put the icing on the cake.  The pattern right now is going through a transitional period but mid month is when things will start getting interesting and a below normal pattern will settle in while funny things can happen with storm systems.

[The Snowman]

i was looking that we are currently under a +epo and by the 18th of this month that we will looking at -epo that was domnating our winter.

That's exactly what I said.

 

don't count on it.

Contradicts what you said mere hours ago.

 

but the epo and the wpo will go into negative at mid month so that means that the blocking will come back.

And result in a potentially colder than normal period. 

 

the negative epo and wpo will be short lived.

Would like to know how you know this. Honest question, not smart-alek question.

[Geos]

System is on the GGEM, but more of a northwoods system.

[East Dubzz]

Reading this forum has given quite a bit of entertainment lately. I'm down for one big final snowstorm!

 

In the meantime... Would just like to say... GO ILLINI!! What a win tonight, was at that game, simply awesome!

[Tom]

00z Euro came a little north this run...brings 6"+ into E/C IL/NC IN/N OH.

 

 

[Tom]

Euro also showing colder temps next weekend into the following week.  Temps will average much below normal.  Trough is much deeper into the Midwest/Lakes...highs for N IL in low 30's Sat, mid 20's Sun, low 20's Mon...doesn't look warm to me.  Also showing a Clipper train beginning next weekend rounding the southern base of the trough.  Anyone of these can become a player and it is also showing the one like the GFS but not as robust.  This type of pattern is what I believed would transpire and is fitting in with the LRC.  Interesting times ahead to say the least.

[Money]

0z euro is cold and snowy in the long-range

[james1976]

dang time change is messing with my model watching lol! ill be used to it by tomorrow though.

[WBadgersW]

Looks like Mid-March might get interesting. Old man winter just doesn't want to give up.