BLI snowman Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 So the summer of 93 got hot in the end? July was drippy and cold and September was hot and bone dry. Not the ideal progression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Probably. Stopped raining, now it just needs to dry out so I can mow!Hopefully your weekend can be saved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 I'm actually a little excited about the dramatic warmup this week. The fact that it looks increasingly likely to be followed by a sharp crash makes it all the sweeter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 The potential for a 55+ low on Thursday is troubling to say the least. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 The potential for a 55+ low on Thursday is troubling to say the least.12z GFS hints at some warm core convection Thursday afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 12z GFS hints at some warm core convection Thursday afternoon.Thunderstorms? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 The potential for a 55+ low on Thursday is troubling to say the least.Open ALL windows! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 12z GFS hints at some warm core convection Thursday afternoon. Comes down to timing of everything as usual, but looks likely to be our first shot of the year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Thunderstorms?Would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Comes down to timing of everything as usual, but looks likely to be our first shot of the year.It certainly isn't uncommon to get something on the backside of these early season warm spikes. Especially when a ULL is in play offshore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 It certainly isn't uncommon to get something on the backside of these early season warm spikes. Especially when a ULL is in play offshore. Definitely. May 1, 1998 was a good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Hopefully the EURO is showing its cutoff bias in recent runs. I like how the GFS handles things better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Hopefully the EURO is showing its cutoff bias in recent runs. I like how the GFS handles things better.It really lost the crash. Friday is looking quite warm on today's run. Would be a very warm first 10 days of May overall. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Thunderstorms?Nope. We're cooking a rack of lamb. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 It really lost the crash. Friday is looking quite warm on today's run. Would be a very warm first 10 days of May overall.At least California would benefit from some widespread late-season rainfall on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 At least California would benefit from some widespread late-season rainfall on this run.I think they have had to much rain. We need it more. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Some well-deserved temps ~80 middle of next week for PDX...then back to regular spring programming. I'll be down in AZ where PHX is slated to be in the low 100s late next week. The following weekend may give way to some strong winds in the lower deserts which means potential for blowing dust or even a haboob. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Tim is missing out on another lovely day in Seattle. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 I think they have had to much rain. We need it more. Welcome to the Forum Fantastic club! Dewey and Tim will be over shortly with your free Trump® weather station and a used VHS copy of the 1996 Bill Paxton classic, "Twister". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Some well-deserved temps ~80 middle of next week for PDX...then back to regular spring programming. I'll be down in AZ where PHX is slated to be in the low 100s late next week. The following weekend may give way to some strong winds in the lower deserts which means potential for blowing dust or even a haboob. Actually, some runs are hinting that the warmth could stick around for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Welcome to the Forum Fantastic club! Dewey and Tim will be over shortly with your free Trump® weather station and a used VHS copy of the 1996 Bill Paxton classic, "Twister". RIP Bill Paxton Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 RIP Bill Paxton SPOILER ALERT: He does survive "Twister". Some very close calls, though! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Tim is missing out on another lovely day in Seattle. Screenshot_1.png Parents said its been dumping rain all day until about 20 minutes ago. C-zone perfectly placed again. Later this week my area will likely be one of the warmest in King County. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 82 and partly cloudy here... absolutely perfect day. And the ocean water is so warm. Could be the same temperature in my backyard on Thursday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Ain't gonna happen. This summer will not be a '93 redux.Funny, I seem to recall you mocking my warm-up call a few weeks ago. How does that crow taste? The pattern will be similar. Probably not as chilly verbatim, but still similar on the large scale. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Funny, I seem to recall you mocking my warm-up call a few weeks ago. How does that crow taste? The pattern will be similar. Probably not as chilly verbatim, but still similar on the large scale. It was crazy wet (rain on many days) in the Seattle area in June and July of that year... very odd situation. Also record-setting wet in the Midwest. Do you think it will be so extremely wet as 1993? Seems almost impossible to believe considering we are coming off record setting rain for the last 3 months. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 It was crazy wet (rain on many days) in the Seattle area in June and July of that year... very odd situation. Also record-setting wet in the Midwest. Do you think it will be so extremely wet as 1993? Seems almost impossible to believe considering we are coming off record setting rain for the last 3 months.Do I think it'll be as wet as 1993? No. Do I think the large scale pattern will be similar? Yes. The upper level jet is the strongest since 2011 this year, but 1993 had a much stronger one. I could also see things flipping warmer for August/September this year depending on how ENSO evolves. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Funny, I seem to recall you mocking my warm-up call a few weeks ago. How does that crow taste? The pattern will be similar. Probably not as chilly verbatim, but still similar on the large scale. Never happened. I said about a week ago that your call for a warm late April looked to be in jeopardy. Was an accurate assessment. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Do I think it'll be as wet as 1993? No. Do I think the large scale pattern will be similar? Yes. The upper level jet is the strongest since 2011 this year, but 1993 had a much stronger one. I could see things flipping warmer for August/September this year depending on how ENSO evolves.Almost as wet would still suck. Even more so for the Midwest. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 The pattern will be similar. Probably not as chilly verbatim, but still similar on the large scale. You already sure about that? I thought you mentioned before that we have to wait until May to get a good idea of the warm season pattern. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 BLI only managed to pick up .02". The drought continues there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 It was crazy wet (rain on many days) in the Seattle area in June and July of that year... very odd situation. Also record-setting wet in the Midwest. Do you think it will be so extremely wet as 1993? Seems almost impossible to believe considering we are coming off record setting rain for the last 3 months. SEA didn't hit 80 in either June or July that year. Nuts. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 On second thought I'd go warmer mid-week...now looks like 85-88 is possible.Consider the last five runs of the Euro ensembles...highest 850 mb temp for next Wednesday May 3rd:4/28 12z: 12.9c4/29 00z: 13.2c4/29 12z: 15.4c4/30 00z: 16.4c4/30 12z: 17.1cLooking at recent climatology for May at SLE (00z 850 temp vs high temp):23.0c....95 degrees on May 15, 200622.0c....99 degrees on May 16, 200820.8c....90 degrees on May 27, 200519.6c....91 degrees on May 26, 200518.8c....87 degrees on May 13, 201218.4c....92 degrees on May 17, 200818.2c....80 degrees on May 14, 201218.2c....87 degrees on May 28, 200918.0c....88 degrees on May 15, 200817.8c....89 degrees on May 30, 200916.8c....88 degrees on May 28, 200716.8c....84 degrees on May 15, 200616.6c....88 degrees on May 29, 200716.2c....85 degrees on May 18, 200816.0c....88 degrees on May 29, 200915.6c....84 degrees on May 31, 2009Early May there was a nice warm spell in 2013:16.4c....83 degrees on the 10th15.2c....85 degrees on the 11th15.2c....81 degrees on the 9th14.4c....87 degrees on the 5th14.4c....81 degrees on the 6thSeems like mid to perhaps upper 80s is a possibility at 17c with 90 becoming possible around 18-19c. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Enjoy it because if Phil's hunch is correct this might be one of only a handful of 80s this year. In 1954 we only saw 10 days of 80+, 27 in 1955 and 1964, 28 in 1948 and 30 in 1953. The 1950s were rough in Portland if you liked warm summers.More recently in 2010 we only managed 37 days. The POR average is 52 days of 80+ a year while the 1981-2010 normal is 56 days.The high was 88 days in 2015...amazing summer that year. The 67 days in 2013, 77 in 2014, 88 in 2015 and 71 in 2016 are unrivaled in terms of consecutive summers with >10% more 80s than normal. 2 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 BLI only managed to pick up .02". The drought continues there. That's the real story this month, it hasn't been that abnormal in terms of rainfall (at least in many northern areas). Currently sunny and 60F here, here's to hoping for at least a normal May in terms of rainfall; maybe the pattern we saw in the second half of April shifts north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Enjoy it because if Phil's hunch is correct this might be one of only a handful of 80s this year. In 1954 we only saw 10 days of 80+, 27 in 1955 and 1964, 28 in 1948 and 30 in 1953. The 1950s were rough in Portland if you liked warm summers. More recently in 2010 we only managed 37 days. The POR average is 52 days of 80+ a year while the 1981-2010 normal is 56 days. The high was 88 days in 2015...amazing summer that year. The 67 days in 2013, 77 in 2014, 88 in 2015 and 71 in 2016 are unrivaled in terms of consecutive summers with >10% more 80s than normal. Chris with a WxStatman caliber climate post. Love it! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Looks like tomorrow's system might have a bit of kick to it after all, the 18z NAM brings it ashore before it breaks apart . http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017043018/nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_22.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Never happened. I said about a week ago that your call for a warm late April looked to be in jeopardy. Was an accurate assessment.Was it really in jeopardy, though? Or, was the clown range GFS just wrong? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 Almost as wet would still suck. Even more so for the Midwest.I don't think I'd even take it that far. I don't know how your microclimates work, so I'm not making any deginitive calls on precipitation. The large scale pattern favors increased Pacific moisture transport overall, but if I make any statements beyond that, I'd be talking out of my arse. I do think the large scale pattern will be similar to 1993, but shifted poleward a bit due to the somewhat more expanded Hadley Cells versus the early 1990s (though they have retracted notably since 2013-16). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 30, 2017 Report Share Posted April 30, 2017 You already sure about that? I thought you mentioned before that we have to wait until May to get a good idea of the warm season pattern.May starts in a few hours. In reference to the second half of summer, yes, that depends on the ENSO and IO/Indo evolution, which is still up the air. However, it's now clear that a stronger Niño is off the table, and given the progression of the tropical forcings and QBO/SAM, I am now able to make some extrapolations into early July. Beyond that, I'm not sure, but I'm leaning warmer for August and September. Almost the opposite progression relative to last year, when the warm anomalies peaked early before things trended cooler overall through the summer and fall. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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