11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System

hawkstwelve · November 30, 2022

On 11/28/2022 at 10:34 PM, hawkstwelve said:

I grabbed every major model's 00z kuchera snowfall forecast for three nearby sites. Just for fun, going to record them here and compare after the event to see which model(s) get the crown.

GFS

FSD: 1.0

MSP: 5.7

OMA: 1.4

ECMWF

FSD: 2.6

MSP: 7.5

OMA: 1.2

GEM

FSD: 4.0

MSP: 8.3

OMA: 1.5

NAM

FSD: 5.2

MSP: 5.1

OMA: 0.5

NBM

FSD: 4.3

MSP: 6.3

OMA: 0.34

HRRR

FSD: 3.8

MSP: 9.1

OMA: 0.2

HRDPS

FSD: 2.9

MSP: 6.9

OMA: 0.7

WRF FV3

FSD: 1.4

MSP: 6.44

OMA: 0.98

ICON

FSD: 3.22

MSP: 8.82

OMA: 1.12

Overall Average

FSD: 3.23

MSP: 7.1

OMA: 0.84

Official numbers

FSD: 2.1

MSP: 8.4

OMA: 0.2

So for those keeping score at home the Euro was the closest for FSD, GEM was closest for MSP, and HRRR was closest for OMA. Adding the total difference for all three sites and the rankings are as followed, from closest to furthest: ECMWF and HRRR (2.4 differential), ICON (2.46), HRDPS (2.8), GEM (3.3), WRF FV3 (3.48), NBM (4.44), GFS (5.0), and poor 'ol NAM (6.7).

Only surprising thing in that list, IMO, is that the HRRR was tied with the Euro for the best performance. Not usually a fan of that model but might have to give it more weight on the next winter storm go-around. The ICON and HRDPS are not mentioned that often but seemed to perform fairly well, which matches similar experiments done in the past. GFS and NAM bringing up the rear is kind of expected, unfortunately.