11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System

[james1976]

Curious to see what MPX does after the full 12z suite. Should hoist a watch or advisory for the TC metro.

[Hoosier]

On the severe side, there's a moderate risk down south.

Pretty much your classic multi-faceted late fall storm system.

[Hoosier]

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

[bud2380]

Pretty decent jog south on the Euro, especially over by the TC's.  

[james1976]

Yeah that kinda sucks. Should be at least advisory criteria here in the TC yet

[james1976]

MPX just hoisted an advisory for 3-6" and said upgrade to warning is possible if confidence increases for 6+

[Madtown]

WSW let's get it on the ground now...trails open soon!

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN.

Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. 

Kind of upped me a little.  We'll see.  Was just put in a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle first then potentially 1-2" with wind.  I'd guess closer to 1/2-1".  Not expecting much, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

[Tom]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals.

I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... 

It’s good at predicting mesoscale banding but don’t get sucked into the higher totals so much.  I use it a guidance to show where the heaviest band will likely lay out.

[Hoosier]

I like the RAP at less than 18 hours.  18-24 hours can be good sometimes.  Beyond 24 hours and especially out at 36-48 hours, well, beware lol

[jaster220]

19 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Something not touched on as much so far - the nice little shot of cold air accompanying this system. Big 24hr temperature changes for many folks.

I live for 24hr temp drops! 

Seriously tho, nice to see a classic late autumn CF bringin a punch! Should be a blast next time around. 

So, where are all the NEB Peeps that are usually on here when something worth following is finally in their region??

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR

[Hoosier]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

 

[Clinton]

The 0z NAMs

[Hawkeye]

This has definitely trended back north.  A day ago a few models were mostly missing MSP to the south.

 

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

 

Looks like they fall apart for SEMI, though your map doesn't show fully. 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looks like they fall apart for SEMI, though your map doesn't show fully. 

Yeah it does start weakening then.

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it does start weakening then.

DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups:

Forecast
soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective
shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will
exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early
Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch.

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." 

Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot!

Yep, takes on a nice angle/path orientation for MSP:

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups:

Forecast
soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective
shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will
exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early
Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch.

Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria.  I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory.  

[james1976]

23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." 

Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot!

Yup! Was just coming in here to mention this. Surprised they upgraded this soon but definitely stoked. And it's a daytime event!

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria.  I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory.  

What looked like a real blasting in of BN temps has become nothing more than a brief interlude, and a wash-rinse-repeat pattern which we are on the boring side of. 

[Tom]

@hawkstwelve, its showtime...I'm sure you like the Heavy Snow wording in your Grid!  Hope you score at least 3" from this one.

 

 

 

[Madtown]

gonna be riding the edge here 

[james1976]

Coming down good here in the TC. Forecast was bumped up to 5-8"

[gabel23]

This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 

We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning.  Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues.  We aren't sending out busses today.  Going to be many absences I'd assume.

[Madtown]

Starting here

[gabel23]

20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning.  Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues.  We aren't sending out busses today.  Going to be many absences I'd assume.

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 

[Niko]

On 11/26/2022 at 9:14 AM, jaster220 said:

Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!!

[gabel23]

Not my pictures but conditions around here not very good. Blowing snow and a sheet of ice are making for difficult travel. 

[CentralNebWeather]

8 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 

We should have called off.  Most schools around us also decided to close.  My absence list this morning is massive.  

[james1976]

1.8" down so far

[CentralNebWeather]

Big flakes falling with wind.  We might get an 1.0-1.5" when it is all done on top of the ice.

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, james1976 said:

1.8" down so far

James are you in the TCs full time now?  Or you still live in Aplington as well?

[james1976]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

James are you in the TCs full time now?  Or you still live in Aplington as well?

TC most of the time but still have my place in Aplington. I'm down there 1 or 2 days a week. I travel back n forth a lot. It's only 3 hrs so not too bad.

[Hoosier]

Well, got a wind advisory.  They actually extended it until midnight.  Not real sure that we'll be getting advisory level gusts this evening outside of the showers/squalls along the front, but maybe it was extended to kind of account for that.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!!

It sure does(did). Too bad it was another GFS model fake-out. N Stream dominance ended up being the outcome, as is the case about 95% of the time. Oh well, its early and our region is known for late starting snow seasons. Those to our west getting hit now is actually perfect climo and I'm fine with it. I'd be more fine with it if we had a guarantee that our turn was coming later this month instead of February like it has been for years now. Ofc, you and others in SEMI got to enjoy that perfectly timed mini storm on Christmas two years ago while I got the shaft in between that and the LES to my west. Keep positive vibes for our turn amigo!

[james1976]

Pounding right now. Visibility in St Paul is 0. I'll do a measurement in a while.

[gabel23]

My first small taste of winter. It will be gone by this weekend…

[james1976]

Just measured between 3.9 and 4.2"

[james1976]

Heavy band parked right over me. This is awesome. Temp has dropped to 25 which will also help with rates.

[james1976]

5.3" out on the table in middle of backyard. 5.8" on patio table. 

[Iceresistance]

Moderate Risk of Severe Storms with a possible outbreak ongoing in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama right now!

[james1976]

Getting a bit breezy so hard to measure but at least 6" down now. Awesome daytime storm.

[Madtown]

Picking up in thevlast hour or so

 

 

[Hawkeye]

14 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Getting a bit breezy so hard to measure but at least 6" down now. Awesome daytime storm.

Getting 6" of snow during daylight is about a once-per-year thing here in Cedar Rapids, if we're lucky.

[james1976]

Sounds like stratus and light snow tomorrow after this storm moves out. Gonna be another very winter like day!

Today`s winter storm will wind down quickly this evening. Visible
satellite imagery has shown convective rolls feeding into our
snowband, indicating the instability present for this strongly
forced fgen band. This fgen band is already starting to push east
and we`ve seen places go from heavy snow to nothing within the
course of about 2 hours. Upstream of us temperatures are in the
teens and this is what is coming in for us tonight. That and another
batch of stratus. The one thing we may need to add to the forecast
for this stratus coming in tonight and lingering through much of the
day on Wednesday is some flurries/light snow. This stratus deck will
be located completely within the dendritic growth zone, with steep
low level lapse rates in the boundary layer from the differential
CAA. We`re not expecting any accumulations, but this looks like one
of the setups where there`s almost a continuous light snow falling
given how easy it is for the atmosphere to develop snow flakes.

[bud2380]

Solid totals.  The models that were further north (NAM if I recall) definitely won out.  The Euro tried to make a decent shift south yesterday, but that ended up not panning out.  Great hit for the Twin Cities area.  It was a direct hit for them.