Jump to content

11/28 - 11/30 Plains/GL's System


Tom

Recommended Posts

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Trend gif of the past few NAM runs. Latest run made a decent jog SSE with the heaviest amounts. Also upped amounts within the band of the band... Now showing almost a foot in S Central MN.

Not feeling too confident for tomorrow as I'm thinking I might be just a bit too far NW but even 1-2 inches would be nice and would easily be the most we've gotten so far this season. 

trend-nam4km-2022112818-f030.snku_acc.us_nc.gif

Kind of upped me a little.  We'll see.  Was just put in a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing drizzle first then potentially 1-2" with wind.  I'd guess closer to 1/2-1".  Not expecting much, so I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

RAP is taking a page out of the RGEM playbook and just keeps up up upping totals.

I don't follow this model too much so I'm not sure how accurate it is but it definitely seems to be smoking too much of that good good, if you know what I mean... 😉

snku_acc.us_nc (1).png

It’s good at predicting mesoscale banding but don’t get sucked into the higher totals so much.  I use it a guidance to show where the heaviest band will likely lay out.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Something not touched on as much so far - the nice little shot of cold air accompanying this system. Big 24hr temperature changes for many folks.

gfs-deterministic-conus-temp_change_24hr-9809600.png

gfs-deterministic-conus-temp_change_24hr-9881600.png

I live for 24hr temp drops! 

Seriously tho, nice to see a classic late autumn CF bringin a punch! Should be a blast next time around. 

So, where are all the NEB Peeps that are usually on here when something worth following is finally in their region??

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Though it can't compare to what looks to transpire farther south, there is a narrow tongue of SBCAPE that develops northward toward southern Lake Michigan late Tuesday.  I don't know whether it will be enough to result in some isolated severe weather, but it's one of those 'don't be surprised if it happens' kind of things.

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_prec_radar-25-31-100-100.gif.9aeef2e719d8866bd3781bd94e8d45b3.gif

 

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_sfc_gust-25-31-100-100.gif.d1d45f18e054011d29d5c6946172cc44.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This has definitely trended back north.  A day ago a few models were mostly missing MSP to the south.

 

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The HRRR is explicitly showing some enhanced gusts with the squall line that gets going along the front

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_prec_radar-25-31-100-100.gif.9aeef2e719d8866bd3781bd94e8d45b3.gif

 

00Z-20221129_HRRRNIL_sfc_gust-25-31-100-100.gif.d1d45f18e054011d29d5c6946172cc44.gif

Looks like they fall apart for SEMI, though your map doesn't show fully. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah it does start weakening then.

DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups:

Forecast
soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective
shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will
exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early
Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." 

Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot!

Yep, takes on a nice angle/path orientation for MSP:

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_18.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX pretty much "meh" on even advisory level winds due to a couple factors mitigating mixing potential. That's fine, we got the windstorm a month early with the mid-October spinner. Looks like best chances for higher wind gusts will be with the two shower set-ups:

Forecast
soundings and hires data supports some beefy low topped convective
shower potential between 09-12Z along the front. The potential will
exist for briefly heavy rainfall rates both Tue evening and early
Wed morning, but a strong consensus exist for 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch.

Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria.  I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like MSP has been upgraded to a WSW. "Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible." 

Sounds like @james1976might score the jackpot!

Yup! Was just coming in here to mention this. Surprised they upgraded this soon but definitely stoked. And it's a daytime event!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah I'd agree on the synoptic winds mostly staying under advisory criteria.  I think the IL/IN area may flirt with it tomorrow with some gusts around 45 mph, but it's borderline and the duration of that looks somewhat limited and none of the offices have issued an advisory.  

What looked like a real blasting in of BN temps has become nothing more than a brief interlude, and a wash-rinse-repeat pattern which we are on the boring side of. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This storm fits perfectly well with the storm back on Oct. 11th when we had a cold front move through. My area got missed out but Lincoln, Omaha, KC and areas east was hit by severe weather. That would put this years cycle around 49 days. Currently 23 degrees and had a freezing rain mix earlier this morning but that has since changed over to snow. The snow is blowing around pretty good and has a nice winter feel out there! 

We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning.  Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues.  We aren't sending out busses today.  Going to be many absences I'd assume.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

We have a 10:00 AM late start this morning.  Very slick in town when I came to school at 9:15 AM with snow blowing sideways, but no visibility issues.  We aren't sending out busses today.  Going to be many absences I'd assume.

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 

  • Like 3
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/26/2022 at 9:14 AM, jaster220 said:

Sure enough @Niko's place getting slammed early Thurs morning:

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

Wouldn't this be a "plot twist"!

That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!! 😎

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023:

Jan 2024:

Feb 2024:

Mar 2024:

April 2024:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Very slick around here too. We started with a late start but we have since called off school. A lot of the area schools around ended up closing. We haven't received a ton of precip but man it looks like winter out there at least! We have a decent band of snow that will be moving through the area that might drop an inch of snow if we are lucky. 

We should have called off.  Most schools around us also decided to close.  My absence list this morning is massive.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Niko said:

That sure looks veryyyyy nice to me amigo!!!!! Make it happen, will ya!! 😎

It sure does(did). Too bad it was another GFS model fake-out. N Stream dominance ended up being the outcome, as is the case about 95% of the time. Oh well, its early and our region is known for late starting snow seasons. Those to our west getting hit now is actually perfect climo and I'm fine with it. I'd be more fine with it if we had a guarantee that our turn was coming later this month instead of February like it has been for years now. Ofc, you and others in SEMI got to enjoy that perfectly timed mini storm on Christmas two years ago while I got the shaft in between that and the LES to my west. Keep positive vibes for our turn amigo! 😉

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Getting a bit breezy so hard to measure but at least 6" down now. Awesome daytime storm.

Getting 6" of snow during daylight is about a once-per-year thing here in Cedar Rapids, if we're lucky.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds like stratus and light snow tomorrow after this storm moves out. Gonna be another very winter like day!

Today`s winter storm will wind down quickly this evening. Visible
satellite imagery has shown convective rolls feeding into our
snowband, indicating the instability present for this strongly
forced fgen band. This fgen band is already starting to push east
and we`ve seen places go from heavy snow to nothing within the
course of about 2 hours. Upstream of us temperatures are in the
teens and this is what is coming in for us tonight. That and another
batch of stratus. The one thing we may need to add to the forecast
for this stratus coming in tonight and lingering through much of the
day on Wednesday is some flurries/light snow. This stratus deck will
be located completely within the dendritic growth zone, with steep
low level lapse rates in the boundary layer from the differential
CAA. We`re not expecting any accumulations, but this looks like one
of the setups where there`s almost a continuous light snow falling
given how easy it is for the atmosphere to develop snow flakes.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...