james1976 Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 Currently 57 and light showers. Another cool damp day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted May 23, 2017 Report Share Posted May 23, 2017 I thought this was an interesting info from LOT for the Chicago area this afternoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 I thought this was an interesting info from LOT for the Chicago area this afternoonTab1FileL.pngI seen that!! I thought maybe they were cold air wall clouds if there is such a thing? Or was the atmosphere that unstable today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 We had funnel clouds here in IA too. Nothing touched down. I think it has something to do with the cool air. Nothing like the unstable airmass you get with tornadoes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 Longer term, the opening week (s) of June do not look very warm and the continued cooler/unsettled wx pattern will continue. Thankfully, normal highs will be in the middle/upper 70's by then. Overnight 00z EPS hinting at an amplified pattern over the CONUS. 00z GEFS blossom quite a large NE PAC ridge, one I have not seen in a long time. Sorta reminds me of the "Relentless Ridge" of 2013-14. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017052400/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_11.png Trends from the CFSv2 for the month of June... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201706.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201706.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 I'd imagine the NE PAC waters will warm substantially over the coming couple weeks (IF) that ridge does materialize. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 Anytime i hear '13-'14 i get a little excited lol.Forecast is 70s this weekend with small chance of rain/storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 24, 2017 Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 I have been worried about a cooler and possible unsettled pattern heading into Memorial Day weekend for the Lakes region. Both EPS/GEFS are starting to illustrate a big trough by Day 9. 00z EPS... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png Resulting 850's are largely below normal next week... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png We'll see how things shake out but the farther north you go towards the Lakes it may be drier under a cool Canadian HP. Great bon fire weather???CPC is showing a huge area of below normal temps after a week of summer fun...Memorial Day weekend is not looking fun, esp if you look at the 12z Euro and what its showing for Day 9/10 as there is likely a re-amplifying trough swinging through. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gifI'm already planning my return after Memorial Day weekend. If not the weekend after, then sometime during the first week of June. The heat is gonna be turned up over here so it's time to go! We loathe when a favorable d9-10 winter outlook goes up in smoke, but I'm elated at a positive turn-about this time of year! Marshall's MDW: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 24, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2017 An interesting long duration MCS may be in the cards from Fri am thru Fri pm running from N KS thru IA/MO border into the lower lakes. Something to watch out for later in the week. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017052412/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017052412/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_44.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017052412/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_46.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 25, 2017 Report Share Posted May 25, 2017 Bonfire weather officially underway here! 57 mostly cloudy and no wind. Very fall-like. Got the sticks burning. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 25, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2017 Looks like the JMA and CFSv2 are trending the same way for June... JMA... CFSv2... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170525.201706.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 25, 2017 Report Share Posted May 25, 2017 We have finally put the chilly weather behind us. We have a lot of pleasant 70s on the way. On the other hand, the nw flow pattern over the next 7-10 days should be snoozeville. Over the last decade, June has been a big rain/storm month for my area, so hopefully something interesting will pop up after the upcoming benign period. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 25, 2017 Report Share Posted May 25, 2017 We have finally put the chilly weather behind us. We have a lot of pleasant 70s on the way. On the other hand, the nw flow pattern over the next 7-10 days should be snoozeville. Over the last decade, June has been a big rain/storm month for my area, so hopefully something interesting will pop up after the upcoming benign period.Im ok with it. We could use some dry weather. I have a lot of brush to burn after that severe storm last week. NW flow should keep temps more pleasant as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 25, 2017 Report Share Posted May 25, 2017 Anytime i hear '13-'14 i get a little excited lol.Forecast is 70s this weekend with small chance of rain/storms. From another board: 6" of rain here in Chambana over the last 7 days, with another 1" possible today. We are now under a flash flood advisory until 345. This stretch reminds me of April 2013. (..for those already drawing comparisons) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 26, 2017 Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 I'm hearing (and personally observing) a ridiculous number of comparisons to 2013 and also 1976. I'd say that they are probably pretty fair comparisons. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 I'm hearing (and personally observing) a ridiculous number of comparisons to 2013 and also 1976. I'd say that they are probably pretty fair comparisons.Arctic temps are holding steady below normal as well which is nice to see... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 26, 2017 Report Share Posted May 26, 2017 Noticed this while looking up a golf course me and my sons are playing Monday. Snow patches remained on the (better) ski hill here in SWMI well after green-up and it even appears some crops are sprouted in the farm fields. Certainly the residences have lush green everything other than tree leafs. Would guess this was mid to late April. Surprising to find tbh with such a lame (non) winter around here.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I picked up a nice 0.76" from the morning MCS. My May total is up to 4.22". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 28, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2017 Hope everyone is enjoying their MDW! I thought I'd post here on my B Day...turned 35 today and feel like I'm 25! I thank you all for participating on this forum. Mother Nature has delivered nice weather for many of us on this long weekend. Hope you are enjoying the out doors! In the meantime, we are about to flip the calendar over to met Summer in a few days and the CFSv2 has been trending much cooler (same as it did for May). Here are the trends in temps/precip below... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201706.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201706.gif I'll post the last 20 runs of the 500mb from the CFSv2 model. Interestingly, it's showing a fairly large ridge off the west coast which has not been the LRC's pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 28, 2017 Report Share Posted May 28, 2017 Cooler June would be nice.Happy bday Tom! Thanks for always posting maps/models! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 28, 2017 Report Share Posted May 28, 2017 Happy b'day, Tom. Today is the best weather day we've had in quite a while. It really couldn't be any nicer. The garden is getting full sun for once, which it badly needed. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 28, 2017 Report Share Posted May 28, 2017 Happy b'day, Tom. Today is the best weather day we've had in quite a while. It really couldn't be any nicer. The garden is getting full sun for once, which it badly needed.Yeah 76 sunny and breezy. A friend came over. Grillin steaks and veggies. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Happy birthday Tom! I've enjoyed getting to be a part of an awesome weather group here and I really appreciate you working to include me in discussion every chance that you can even though I'm slightly out of place compared to the rest of us. Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and wish many more happy birthdays to come. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Happy Memorial Day! We cannot forget the sacrifices our vets and armed forces scattered across the globe that defend our freedoms. God Bless America! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Frost advisories posted for SD & ND and its almost June.Upper 60s breezy and mostly cloudy today. Showers moving into N IA from MN. Rather fall-like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 29, 2017 Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Frost advisories posted for SD & ND and its almost June.Upper 60s breezy and mostly cloudy today. Showers moving into N IA from MN. Rather fall-like.Happy MD to all, and a special shout out Happy B-day for Tom! Perfect golf wx enjoyed today as well. @ james - speaking of cold MDW temps, when I lived up in Traverse City I had lows well into the 20s every night back in '92 & '97. Talk about bonfire wx! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 Thanks for the B day wishes! Turning 35 and Feeling Alive...feels like I'm entering a new chapter in my life TBH. A lot of great opportunities lie ahead and I'll be able to share some of them with you. Enjoy the rest of the day! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 29, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2017 I looked back till 1958 and the coldest Arctic summer seems to be 2010 where it averaged nearly 32F for the heart to the melt season. See the map below... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png 2013 looks like it would come into 2nd place...however, leading up to the Summer season this year was much colder than 2010.http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png So far, the Arctic has been below normal since about the last few days of April and I don't see it changing. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png If the CFSv2 is right about this summer melt season, this may be one of the coldest summers in the Arctic in decades. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Here is the 00z EPS monthly temp anomaly for June. Nearly a carbon copy of what the month of May was forecast from the same model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Here is the 00z EPS monthly temp anomaly for June. Nearly a carbon copy of what the month of May was forecast from the same model. I really like the way things are looking going forward into summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 We may hit upper 70s (normal) later this week and then back to upper 60s this weekend. Lot of rain chances as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 We are setting new decadal snow cover extent highs in Eurasia. Summer trends??? Overall, Northern Hemisphere is in 2nd place... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 30, 2017 Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 We are setting new decadal snow cover extent highs in Eurasia. Summer trends??? Overall, Northern Hemisphere is in 2nd place... Had not heard of this volcano erupting so much. Per an AmWx poster: Other than a wet Spring, despite one of the mildest Winters on record, we also may be feeling the effects of the Bogoslof volcano in Alaska that erupted 40+ times since December. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2017 Had not heard of this volcano erupting so much. Per an AmWx poster:I saw that report while watch the local news over here that it had recently erupted. As we continue towards the Solar Minimum, I would expect to see more volcanoes erupting and earthquakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 In other news, who thinks Trump pulls out of the Paris Agreement??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 I saw that report while watch the local news over here that it had recently erupted. As we continue towards the Solar Minimum, I would expect to see more volcanoes erupting and earthquakes. Care to elaborate on that? First I've heard/seen any correlation between those vastly different natural phenomena tbh. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Care to elaborate on that? First I've heard/seen any correlation between those vastly different natural phenomena tbh.I remember reading extensively on this topic when I had WxBell. Joe D' Aleo has studied the correlation between Solar Cycles and volcano/earthquake frequencies. They tend to increase as we enter solar minimums. There are other climate scientists that have found this interesting correlation. In fact, Dr. David Dilley from Global Weather Oscillations uses solar and lunar cycles to predict when there will be periods of heightened frequencies in earthquakes and volcano's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted May 31, 2017 Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 I remember reading extensively on this topic when I had WxBell. Joe D' Aleo has studied the correlation between Solar Cycles and volcano/earthquake frequencies. They tend to increase as we enter solar minimums. There are other climate scientists that have found this interesting correlation. In fact, Dr. David Dilley from Global Weather Oscillations uses solar and lunar cycles to predict when there will be periods of heightened frequencies in earthquakes and volcano's. Hmm. Interesting stuff. How exactly low sunspots would cause more (deep) underground activity is baffling to me personally, but I'll take your word for that from those respected sources. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2017 Fired up a June Thread... http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1571-june-2017-observations-and-discussion/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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