May 2017 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

Currently 57 and light showers. Another cool damp day!

[Yerf]

I thought this was an interesting info from LOT for the Chicago area this afternoon

[gabel23]

I thought this was an interesting info from LOT for the Chicago area this afternoon

Tab1FileL.png

I seen that!! I thought maybe they were cold air wall clouds if there is such a thing? Or was the atmosphere that unstable today? 

[james1976]

We had funnel clouds here in IA too. Nothing touched down. I think it has something to do with the cool air. Nothing like the unstable airmass you get with tornadoes.

[Tom]

Longer term, the opening week (s) of June do not look very warm and the continued cooler/unsettled wx pattern will continue.  Thankfully, normal highs will be in the middle/upper 70's by then.  Overnight 00z EPS hinting at an amplified pattern over the CONUS.

 

 

00z GEFS blossom quite a large NE PAC ridge, one I have not seen in a long time.  Sorta reminds me of the "Relentless Ridge" of 2013-14.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017052400/gfs-ens_mslpaNormMean_namer_11.png

 

 

 

 

Trends from the CFSv2 for the month of June...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201706.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201706.gif

[Tom]

I'd imagine the NE PAC waters will warm substantially over the coming couple weeks (IF) that ridge does materialize.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[james1976]

Anytime i hear '13-'14 i get a little excited lol.

Forecast is 70s this weekend with small chance of rain/storms.

[jaster220]

I have been worried about a cooler and possible unsettled pattern heading into Memorial Day weekend for the Lakes region.  Both EPS/GEFS are starting to illustrate a big trough by Day 9.

 

00z EPS...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

 

 

Resulting 850's are largely below normal next week...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017051500/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png

 

 

 

We'll see how things shake out but the farther north you go towards the Lakes it may be drier under a cool Canadian HP.  Great bon fire weather???

CPC is showing a huge area of below normal temps after a week of summer fun...Memorial Day weekend is not looking fun, esp if you look at the 12z Euro and what its showing for Day 9/10 as there is likely a re-amplifying trough swinging through.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

I'm already planning my return after Memorial Day weekend. If not the weekend after, then sometime during the first week of June. The heat is gonna be turned up over here so it's time to go!

 

We loathe when a favorable d9-10 winter outlook goes up in smoke, but I'm elated at a positive turn-about this time of year!

 

Marshall's MDW:

 

 

[Tom]

An interesting long duration MCS may be in the cards from Fri am thru Fri pm running from N KS thru IA/MO border into the lower lakes.  Something to watch out for later in the week.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017052412/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_40.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017052412/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_44.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017052412/namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_46.png

[james1976]

Bonfire weather officially underway here! 57 mostly cloudy and no wind. Very fall-like. Got the sticks burning.

[Tom]

Looks like the JMA and CFSv2 are trending the same way for June...

 

JMA...

 

 

 

 

CFSv2...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20170525.201706.gif

[Hawkeye]

We have finally put the chilly weather behind us.  We have a lot of pleasant 70s on the way.  On the other hand, the nw flow pattern over the next 7-10 days should be snoozeville.  Over the last decade, June has been a big rain/storm month for my area, so hopefully something interesting will pop up after the upcoming benign period.

[james1976]

We have finally put the chilly weather behind us. We have a lot of pleasant 70s on the way. On the other hand, the nw flow pattern over the next 7-10 days should be snoozeville. Over the last decade, June has been a big rain/storm month for my area, so hopefully something interesting will pop up after the upcoming benign period.

Im ok with it. We could use some dry weather. I have a lot of brush to burn after that severe storm last week. NW flow should keep temps more pleasant as well.

[jaster220]

Anytime i hear '13-'14 i get a little excited lol.

Forecast is 70s this weekend with small chance of rain/storms.

 

From another board:

 

 

6" of rain here in Chambana over the last 7 days, with another 1" possible today. We are now under a flash flood advisory until 345. This stretch reminds me of April 2013.

 

(..for those already drawing comparisons)

[OKwx2k4]

I'm hearing (and personally observing) a ridiculous number of comparisons to 2013 and also 1976. I'd say that they are probably pretty fair comparisons.

[Tom]

I'm hearing (and personally observing) a ridiculous number of comparisons to 2013 and also 1976. I'd say that they are probably pretty fair comparisons.

Arctic temps are holding steady below normal as well which is nice to see...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

[jaster220]

Noticed this while looking up a golf course me and my sons are playing Monday. Snow patches remained on the (better) ski hill here in SWMI well after green-up and it even appears some crops are sprouted in the farm fields. Certainly the residences have lush green everything other than tree leafs. Would guess this was mid to late April. Surprising to find tbh with such a lame (non) winter around here..

 

 

[Hawkeye]

I picked up a nice 0.76" from the morning MCS.  My May total is up to 4.22".

[Tom]

Hope everyone is enjoying their MDW!  I thought I'd post here on my B Day...turned 35 today and feel like I'm 25!  I thank you all for participating on this forum.

 

Mother Nature has delivered nice weather for many of us on this long weekend.  Hope you are enjoying the out doors!

 

In the meantime, we are about to flip the calendar over to met Summer in a few days and the CFSv2 has been trending much cooler (same as it did for May).  Here are the trends in temps/precip below...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201706.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201706.gif

 

 

 

I'll post the last 20 runs of the 500mb from the CFSv2 model.  Interestingly, it's showing a fairly large ridge off the west coast which has not been the LRC's pattern.

 

 

 

[james1976]

Cooler June would be nice.

Happy bday Tom! Thanks for always posting maps/models!

[Hawkeye]

Happy b'day, Tom.

 

Today is the best weather day we've had in quite a while.  It really couldn't be any nicer.  The garden is getting full sun for once, which it badly needed.

[james1976]

Happy b'day, Tom.

 

Today is the best weather day we've had in quite a while. It really couldn't be any nicer. The garden is getting full sun for once, which it badly needed.

Yeah 76 sunny and breezy. A friend came over. Grillin steaks and veggies.

[OKwx2k4]

Happy birthday Tom! I've enjoyed getting to be a part of an awesome weather group here and I really appreciate you working to include me in discussion every chance that you can even though I'm slightly out of place compared to the rest of us. Anyway, just wanted to say thanks and wish many more happy birthdays to come.

[Tom]

Happy Memorial Day!  We cannot forget the sacrifices our vets and armed forces scattered across the globe that defend our freedoms.  God Bless America!

[james1976]

Frost advisories posted for SD & ND and its almost June.

Upper 60s breezy and mostly cloudy today. Showers moving into N IA from MN. Rather fall-like.

[jaster220]

Frost advisories posted for SD & ND and its almost June.

Upper 60s breezy and mostly cloudy today. Showers moving into N IA from MN. Rather fall-like.

Happy MD to all, and a special shout out Happy B-day for Tom! Perfect golf wx enjoyed today as well. @ james - speaking of cold MDW temps, when I lived up in Traverse City I had lows well into the 20s every night back in '92 & '97. Talk about bonfire wx!

[Tom]

Thanks for the B day wishes!  Turning 35 and Feeling Alive...feels like I'm entering a new chapter in my life TBH.  A lot of great opportunities lie ahead and I'll be able to share some of them with you.  Enjoy the rest of the day!

[Tom]

I looked back till 1958 and the coldest Arctic summer seems to be 2010 where it averaged nearly 32F for the heart to the melt season. See the map below...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png

 

2013 looks like it would come into 2nd place...however, leading up to the Summer season this year was much colder than 2010.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png

 

 

 

So far, the Arctic has been below normal since about the last few days of April and I don't see it changing.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

 

 

If the CFSv2 is right about this summer melt season, this may be one of the coldest summers in the Arctic in decades.

[Tom]

Here is the 00z EPS monthly temp anomaly  for June.  Nearly a carbon copy of what the month of May was forecast from the same model.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Here is the 00z EPS monthly temp anomaly for June. Nearly a carbon copy of what the month of May was forecast from the same model.

 

I really like the way things are looking going forward into summer.

[james1976]

We may hit upper 70s (normal) later this week and then back to upper 60s this weekend. Lot of rain chances as well.

[Tom]

We are setting new decadal snow cover extent highs in Eurasia.  Summer trends???

 

 

 

Overall, Northern Hemisphere is in 2nd place...

 

[jaster220]

We are setting new decadal snow cover extent highs in Eurasia.  Summer trends???

 

 

 

Overall, Northern Hemisphere is in 2nd place...

 

 

Had not heard of this volcano erupting so much. Per an AmWx poster:

 

 

Other than a wet Spring, despite one of the mildest Winters on record, we also may be feeling the effects of the Bogoslof volcano in Alaska that erupted 40+ times since December.

[Tom]

Had not heard of this volcano erupting so much. Per an AmWx poster:

I saw that report while watch the local news over here that it had recently erupted. As we continue towards the Solar Minimum, I would expect to see more volcanoes erupting and earthquakes.

[Tom]

[Tom]

In other news, who thinks Trump pulls out of the Paris Agreement???  

[jaster220]

I saw that report while watch the local news over here that it had recently erupted. As we continue towards the Solar Minimum, I would expect to see more volcanoes erupting and earthquakes.

 

Care to elaborate on that? First I've heard/seen any correlation between those vastly different natural phenomena tbh.

[Tom]

Care to elaborate on that? First I've heard/seen any correlation between those vastly different natural phenomena tbh.

I remember reading extensively on this topic when I had WxBell.  Joe D' Aleo has studied the correlation between Solar Cycles and volcano/earthquake frequencies.  They tend to increase as we enter solar minimums.  There are other climate scientists that have found this interesting correlation.  In fact, Dr. David Dilley from Global Weather Oscillations uses solar and lunar cycles to predict when there will be periods of heightened frequencies in earthquakes and volcano's.

[jaster220]

I remember reading extensively on this topic when I had WxBell.  Joe D' Aleo has studied the correlation between Solar Cycles and volcano/earthquake frequencies.  They tend to increase as we enter solar minimums.  There are other climate scientists that have found this interesting correlation.  In fact, Dr. David Dilley from Global Weather Oscillations uses solar and lunar cycles to predict when there will be periods of heightened frequencies in earthquakes and volcano's.

 

Hmm. Interesting stuff. How exactly low sunspots would cause more (deep) underground activity is baffling to me personally, but I'll take your word for that from those respected sources.

[Tom]

Fired up a June Thread...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1571-june-2017-observations-and-discussion/