TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 For J/A/S? No way, dude. PDX averaged -0.1C during that time period, and OLM/EUG were all within a fraction of a degree of normal.Look up daily CF6 record at SEA and BLI for JJAS on SEA NWS site and report back to me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Memorial Day weekend sucks balls without a chance of thundersnow.Have anything boring and predictable planned? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Look up daily CF6 record at SEA and BLI for JJAS on SEA NWS site and report back to me.I already did the math, dude. The official numbers are here. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/findstation Using the four stations we analyzed last year (SEA, PDX, OLM, and EUG), for J/J/A/S, cooler than average days easily outnumber the warmer than average days, and the vast majority of positive departure points occurred within 3 weeks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I already did the math, dude. The official numbers are here. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/findstation Using the four stations we analyzed last year (SEA, PDX, OLM, and EUG), for J/J/A/S, cooler than average days easily outnumber the warmer than average days, and the vast majority of positive departure points occurred within 3 weeks.Look at SEA and BLI... specific daily records. Way more positive departure days. Fact. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Loom at SEA and BLI... specific daily records. Way more positive departure days. Fact.Uh, that's not an accurate spatial representation of the lowland PNW. It makes absolutely zero sense to confine this analysis to those two stations. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 73F here currently. Feels a bit hot to be honest. Dam(n), we need some thunderstorms to liven things up though... So-so chance for some warm core action on Monday and Tuesday. Not much forcing but there should be plenty of instability. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Sometimes, monthly anomalies alone aren't enough to prove a point. We've all been there. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Last summer wasn't anything special you guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Last summer wasn't anything special you guys.Except the math...the math is very, very special. Apparently. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Uh, that's not an accurate spatial representation of the lowland PNW. It makes absolutely zero sense to confine this analysis to those two stations.OK. I use SEA all the time... and it did well approximating the Seattle area last summer. Our area had more positive departures than negative last summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Last summer wasn't anything special you guys.It peaked really early. Or late. Or not at all. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Last summer wasn't anything special you guys. I liked the June heat wave. And the August one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 OK. I use SEA all the time... and it did well approximating the Seattle area last summer. Our area had more positive departures than negative last summer. To be fair, stations like OLM and Monroe had plenty of cool days last summer. Monroe ended up averaging -0.5/-1.7/-0.7 for JJA. There's something to be said about Seattle's UHI and the third runway @ SEA affecting things. Different story further north though, at places like Bellingham. Definitely more warm days than cool days last summer up there, along with positive departures for all three months. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 It peaked really early. Or late. Or not at all. Unprecedented! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Have anything boring and predictable planned?Three wake-ups! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Three wake-ups! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I liked the June heat wave. And the August one. Pleasantly forgettable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 To be fair, stations like OLM and Monroe had plenty of cool days last summer. Monroe ended up averaging -0.5/-1.7/-0.7 for JJA. There's something to be said about Seattle's UHI and the third runway @ SEA affecting things. Different story further north though, at places like Bellingham. Definitely more warm days than cool days last summer up there, along with positive departures for all three months. WFO SEA was just about the same as SEA... and WFO SEA is in a generally wooded area right on Lake Washington. For JAS: SEA: +1.1 / +2.6 / -0.1WFO SEA: +1.1 / +2.1 / -0.2 SEA was a good approximation of the Seattle area and there were many more positive departures than negative departures in this area last summer. But even so... the JAS period ended up just a little above normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 WFO SEA was just about the same as SEA... and WFO SEA is in a generally wooded area right on Lake Washington. For JAS: SEA: +1.1 / +2.6 / -0.1WFO SEA: +1.1 / +2.1 / -0.2 SEA was a good approximation of the Seattle area and there were many more positive departures than negative departures in this area last summer. But even so... the JAS period ended up just a little above normal.There are a number of factors that could have biased the numbers a bit warm. Or it could have been a local-ish warm bubble in the Puget Sound area. Either way, the SEA numbers weren't representative of the lowland PNW overall last summer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 There are a number of factors that could have biased the numbers a bit warm. Or it could have been a local-ish warm bubble in the Puget Sound area. Either way, the SEA numbers weren't representative of the lowland PNW overall last summer. No... not representative of the entire lowlands of the PNW. It was representative of the warm local area around the Puget Sound from Seattle to Bellingham to Vancouver Island. That area was not even close to 80% of the days below normal... more like 60-70% of the days above normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I like the 00Z GFS. A little more robust with troughing later next week with maybe some convection on Tuesday and some showers around from Wed - Fri and then a ridge builds in for another warm, sunny weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 It was in EUG. The monthly departures for JJA were 3.2, 0.3, 2.6. The average high of 87.5º in August was the 3rd hottest on record, behind only 1967 and 2014. Or isn't EUG considered part of the "PNW lowlands?" 2013 was also "historically hot" in that area. Historic summer heat down there has been pretty easy to come by this decade. Not the case just a little further to the north, aside from the truly impressive 2014/2015 combo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 No... not representative of the entire lowlands of the PNW. It was representative of the warm local area around the Puget Sound from Seattle to Bellingham to Vancouver Island. That area was not even close to 80% of the days below normal... more like 60-70% of the days above normal.That's why I referenced four stations, then aggregated the totals for a more regional representation. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Pleasantly forgettable. That August heat wave was kind of a biggie. I'm a fan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 All of the models turned more troughy for next weekend now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 All of the models turned more troughy for next weekend now.Yeah definitely a change. For a minute they had me doubting Phil's predictions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Yeah definitely a change. For a minute they had me doubting Phil's predictions! Never doubt Phil. Timing might be off a little bit... but he will get the big picture right most of the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Never doubt Phil. Timing might be off a little bit... but he will get the big picture right most of the time.And Flatiron too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 A nice big cooldown Tuesday and beyond is starting to look likely. Today is also looking like our best shot at 90 this weekend, now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 That August heat wave was kind of a biggie. I'm a fan.Didn't that feature one of our latest back to back triple digits? We were camping on the SW side of Mount Adams, near Trout Lake Creek, during most of that event. It cooled off sharply at night, with all of the dry air, but by 9 or 10 in the morning the east wind would surface and it would feel like someone turned on a furnace. Would spike close to 90 early then hang around there all afternoon with a consistent NE breeze. Warm for that elevation (~3,000'). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I don't even really remember the heatwave last August . The 2013-16 summer period just kind of all blended together. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 A nice big cooldown Tuesday and beyond is starting to look likely. Today is also looking like our best shot at 90 this weekend, now.Euro says Monday will be warmest day. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 12Z ECMWF is warmer than the 00Z run overall. A little rain on Friday into Saturday morning but ridge builds in quickly next weekend. Might still just end up a short cool period between ridging. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 12Z ECMWF is warmer than the 00Z run overall. A little rain on Friday into Saturday morning but ridge builds in quickly next weekend. Might still just end up a short cool period between ridging. I think you are model riding. There's a lot of confusion in the long range right now. Ensembles are a total mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 You both have been riding the models pretty hard lately. Mildly entertaining. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I think you are model riding. There's a lot of confusion in the long range right now. Ensembles are a total mess. I have no idea what will happen... I am just thinking out loud. If Phil expects long-term troughing then that is my general assumption. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 You both have been riding the models pretty hard lately. Mildly entertaining. Have I? I mean we all know you know what will happen. Don't tell us though. I hate spoilers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Have I? I mean we all know you know what will happen. Don't tell us though. I hate spoilers!Yeah, lots of run to run updates. It's cool. This summer will have lots of "nice" periods. Oops! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 Yeah, lots of run to run updates. It's cool. This summer will have lots of "nice" periods. Oops! Bold. Ballsy. Beautiful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 27, 2017 Report Share Posted May 27, 2017 I checked out of morbid curiousity, and 5 out of my last 50 posts have cited specific model runs, with one ensemble chart posted. Sorry for flooding the forum with my model riding, guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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