PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

 

[dhoffine]

Any clue folks when we might see snow starting to fall tomorrow?  I haven't been lurking tonight

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking a lot better down here than it did even 12 hours ago.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

This is pretty good, snow for the Valley and South metro too

 

The GFS will officially become the greatest scientific achievement of the human race if I get 2 inches of snow tomorrow. 

[Cold Snap]

SEA did pretty good out of this event! They are up to 4.4” for the winter so far that’s pretty good for it only being Dec 3.

[TT-SEA]

Can we feel good about snow in King County if the goofy over-estimating GFS shows basically nothing?   

Go Portland!! 

 

[TT-SEA]

And yes... we can feel good about snow because the GFS is likely have issues with moisture placement.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Can we feel good about snow in King County if the goofy over-estimating GFS shows basically nothing?   

Go Portland!! 

 

Not as good as the 18z up here. Probably more realistic but nothing crazy

[Doinko]

 

GEM looks good

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Canadian looks good for Portland and moved precip north again.

[TT-SEA]

One more note... it is absolutely gorgeous outside.     Currently 39 in North Bend and 36 here but the dewpoint is in the 20s so nothing is melting.  And its very pleasant and does not feel cold at all and the moon is shining on the snow.   Below freezing dewpoints are everything!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would consider any measurable snow at PDX tomorrow a massive win. Still not super excited about the timing. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

One more note... it is absolutely gorgeous outside.     Currently 39 in North Bend and 36 here but the dewpoint is in the 20s so nothing is melting.  But its very pleasant and does not feel cold at all and the moon is shining on the snow.   Below freezing dewpoints are everything.

The dewpoint science bends my mind. 

Amazing..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would consider any measurable snow at PDX tomorrow a massive win. Still not super excited about the timing. 

How does your area do with precip coming in at this angle? 

[TT-SEA]

I would like this weather for the rest of the month... with a snow event every 2 or 3 days to freshen things up.   Can we make that happen?   No roaring SW wind and rain for a few weeks.  

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would consider any measurable snow at PDX tomorrow a massive win. Still not super excited about the timing. 

Should at least make for a very nice snowy and wintry day even if nothing sticks

[Doinko]

GEM is great

 

[Terreboner]

Just now, Doinko said:

GEM is great

 

The good ole Canadian snow bias.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

SEA did pretty good out of this event! They are up to 4.4” for the winter so far that’s pretty good for it only being Dec 3.

Cannot believe SEA has had more snow than my area so far this season…Crazy insane upside down world right now! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

How does your area do with precip coming in at this angle? 

Not great. It’s why I haven’t been super excited about this setup. This kind of setup we won’t get much more precip than the valley, and usually rates remain rather light, we will probably get colder tonight than the valley so that will help in the beginning. We’re an onshore flow monster, it’s our bread and butter. The pattern in late December 2021 or January 2012 was perfect for us. Those kinds of patterns where we are in cold onshore flow with a stalled arctic front to the north absolutely bury us. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[Phishy Wx]

down to 15, dp is also 15

 

it's also clear and calm, some freezing fog forming.  thinking we could flirt with single digits if it stays clear overnight

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not great. It’s why I haven’t been super excited about this setup. This kind of setup we won’t get much more precip than the valley, and usually rates remain rather light, we will probably get colder tonight than the valley so that will help in the beginning. We’re an onshore flow monster, it’s our bread and butter. The pattern in late December 2021 or January 2012 was perfect for us. Those kinds of patterns where we are in cold onshore flow with a stalled arctic front to the north absolutely bury us. 

I was thinking it might not be great that's why I asked. But ya never know man and every systems  behavior is different as you know.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Cannot believe SEA has had more snow than my area so far this season…Crazy insane upside down world right now! 

That is truly amazing... and will probably never happen again.

And its possible that by tomorrow you will be losing to PDX as well.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The front charging in Wed night will probably be another heavy wet snow event here. It will be close but it's definitely on the table. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is truly amazing... and will probably never happen again.

And its possible that by tomorrow you will be losing to PDX as well.  

If we get 2" I'll be very happy

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The front charging in Wed night will probably be another heavy wet snow event here. It will be close but it's definitely on the table. 

There was a bunch of situations like shown Wednesday night here in 2007. Forecast was not talking much about snow and we got one wet snow event after another. 

[Blizzard777]

39 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

More than I bargained for moving to AZ.

That is a very tiny, very well camouflaged Arizona bark scorpion, the most venomous in North America, and somehow it got in my brother's house. 

 

 

I’ll be down end of month to bring in New Years there!  Prescott area Cant wait !

Cool little dude and crazy you saw him…just think what and inch of snow looks like to him

 

[Hyperbolic Trendz]

If there was to be an impromptu forum Miss Misery contest judging the most sad-sack location over the past five years for snow, I would think South Metro PDX members might be frontrunners for the crown, which in this case would take the form of a vinyl yellow Sou’Wester to deflect the pissing, cold rains..  Gladstone, lower Oregon City, Wilsonville—while not completely snow-deprived—have had a tough five year stretch.  Perhaps that’s why it’s a little tough to stomach the incessant whining coming from the S. Valley over the years, which has had some impressively fun events during this same stretch.  One could point to Jan. 2017 as a counterpoint but as Prairiedog has outlined in the past that was an exceedingly frustrating event in S.Metro with hours of 34 degree driving rains before a charity turnover to snow to illustrate painfully what could have been.  Feb.21 we won the ice battle and were rewarded with once in a lifetime power outages.  The last time I can remember getting over on other metro locations was maybe the first December event in 2008 (the 13th perhaps) where our 3-4 inches felt like a win. It’s an increasingly difficult place to achieve snow success and outflow events aren’t saving us like they used to.  But that’s likely a matter of unfavorable low placements. It’s a unique and interesting location for its snow impotence. That’s why an event like tomorrow barely warrants a second look here.  But I’m willing to admit that proximity to greatness might be breeding unjustified jealousy (and whining).

For people here that are smarter than me (most) do you have any thoughts about this area’s snow mitigating factors? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[DRG]

I don't post a lot (obviously) but if there was a seasonally adjusted platinum level lurker status, my hat would be in the ring...

Temp of 37.0 and dp of 24.  East winds have been gusting just a little more in the last couple hours. We're on the northern end of the west slope at Mt Tabor in east PDX so we get muted northerlies at our house during east wind events - like an eddy in a river, the source presents "weird".

[SnowWillarrive]

Dew points in the teens here. 

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

If there was to be an impromptu forum Miss Misery contest judging the most sad-sack location over the past five years for snow, I would think South Metro PDX members might be frontrunners for the crown, which in this case would take the form of a vinyl yellow Sou’Wester to deflect the pissing, cold rains..  Gladstone, lower Oregon City, Wilsonville—while not completely snow-deprived—have had a tough five year stretch.  Perhaps that’s why it’s a little tough to stomach the incessant whining coming from the S. Valley over the years, which has had some impressively fun events during this same stretch.  One could point to Jan. 2017 as a counterpoint but as Prairiedog has outlined in the past that was an exceedingly frustrating event in S.Metro with hours of 34 degree driving rains before a charity turnover to snow to illustrate painfully what could have been.  Feb.21 we won the ice battle and were rewarded with once in a lifetime power outages.  The last time I can remember getting over on other metro locations was maybe the first December event in 2008 (the 13th perhaps) where our 3-4 inches felt like a win. It’s an increasingly difficult place to achieve snow success and outflow events aren’t saving us like they used to.  But that’s likely a matter of unfavorable low placements. It’s a unique and interesting location for its snow impotence. That’s why an event like tomorrow barely warrants a second look here.  But I’m willing to admit that proximity to greatness might be breeding unjustified jealousy (and whining).

For people here that are smarter than me (most) do you have any thoughts about this area’s snow mitigating factors? 

Surface temperatures and daylight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Blizzard777]

8 minutes ago, DecimalCat said:

If there was to be an impromptu forum Miss Misery contest judging the most sad-sack location over the past five years for snow, I would think South Metro PDX members might be frontrunners for the crown, which in this case would take the form of a vinyl yellow Sou’Wester to deflect the pissing, cold rains..  Gladstone, lower Oregon City, Wilsonville—while not completely snow-deprived—have had a tough five year stretch.  Perhaps that’s why it’s a little tough to stomach the incessant whining coming from the S. Valley over the years, which has had some impressively fun events during this same stretch.  One could point to Jan. 2017 as a counterpoint but as Prairiedog has outlined in the past that was an exceedingly frustrating event in S.Metro with hours of 34 degree driving rains before a charity turnover to snow to illustrate painfully what could have been.  Feb.21 we won the ice battle and were rewarded with once in a lifetime power outages.  The last time I can remember getting over on other metro locations was maybe the first December event in 2008 (the 13th perhaps) where our 3-4 inches felt like a win. It’s an increasingly difficult place to achieve snow success and outflow events aren’t saving us like they used to.  But that’s likely a matter of unfavorable low placements. It’s a unique and interesting location for its snow impotence. That’s why an event like tomorrow barely warrants a second look here.  But I’m willing to admit that proximity to greatness might be breeding unjustified jealousy (and whining).

For people here that are smarter than me (most) do you have any thoughts about this area’s snow mitigating factors? 

Lived in that area for 5 years……definitely sucks and I hear and feel your pain 

[Weiner Warrior]

GFS showing cool temps and snow chances at least through next weekend!!

 

 

[RentonHill]

42 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

More than I bargained for moving to AZ.

That is a very tiny, very well camouflaged Arizona bark scorpion, the most venomous in North America, and somehow it got in my brother's house. 

 

 

Found one of these in our pool in the house I lived in senior year in Tempe. Thought it was long dead so I scooped it out with my hands and then when I looked a few minutes later it was gone