PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Perturbed Member]

Somehow temps are climbing even here. HIO and nearby stations shot up to 39-40F. Just a few miles west of those stations, things are in the mid 30s and if you go out towards Banks they are just around freezing. The places that are right on the edge of the Coast Range have decoupled and managed to really cool off. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Weird day in Southern California today. We were in a dry sector between an AR to our north and an AR to our south. Made it into the low 70s here while Phoenix was rainy and in the low 50s at the same time. That huge low off the coast is causing very strange weather. 

Weird regime right now.

[Doinko]

Weather.com is on board! Phone weather app is showing 3-5" probably overdoing it but even if we get barely anything seeing snow fall throughout the day will be really nice

 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Somehow temps are climbing even here. HIO and nearby stations shot up to 39-40F. Just a few miles west of those stations, things are in the mid 30s and if you go out towards Banks they are just around freezing. The places that are right on the edge of the Coast Range have decoupled and managed to really cool off. 

In reality you are trading colder temps for lower dew points.  When the precip arrives it will all balance out.

[Doinko]

23 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Fair enough. I noticed the 10 PM PDX NWS AFD is a total copy/paste from early this morning. They are literally still talking about the 06z and 12z runs from 12-18 hours ago. Strange. They clearly don't seem concerned about any potential with this. 

Weird that the NWS is so confident in not seeing much. They issued a WWA for that midweek overnight thing but not for this

[Gradient Keeper]

Pressure Gradients - UPDATE

Offshore gradients are up a bit further now. The peak should be 1-7 AM and could near -11mb. It's going to be a very windy night, especially east of I-205.
 

11 PM

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -9.9mb
TTD-DLS: -9.5mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -11.0mb
PDX-MWH: -12.8mb
PDX-GEG: -11.3mb
OTH-GEG: -14.8mb

*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale, YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, GEG = Spokane, OTH = North Bend

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Weird that the NWS is so confident in not seeing much. They issued a WWA for that midweek overnight thing but not for this

Not if you're familiar with the PQR team and their track record with snow.....

[snow_wizard]

SEA recorded 2.6 inches for the day, and they are up to 4.4 for the season now.  Since November 1 they have eaten up about 150 degrees of the 350 degrees of excess temperature they accumulated July through October.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well exhausted here, so no Night Shift for me tonight. I may be back if the wind wakes me up enough to summon me out of my warm comfy bed. Have a great night all.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Weird that the NWS is so confident in not seeing much. They issued a WWA for that midweek overnight thing but not for this

The SEA NWS is being stingy also.  I actually have a decent feeling about this one.  We'll see I guess.

[BLI snowman]

06z HRRR. For shits and giggles. Bit of improvement for Portland.

 

[Meatyorologist]

GEFS was great mid month

[Kolk1604]

35 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah just your typical pedestrian 966mb low.

Low locations for Day 9. 

Strongest I see is a 984 at the WA/OR border 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Hmm really starting to worry about temps considering we will be fighting against daytime heating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

weird. breeze picked up from the NE and the temps jumped from 15 to 24 in the last hour

 

 

[Deweydog]

Midnight highs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?

[Requiem]

4 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Hmm really starting to worry about temps considering we will be fighting against daytime heating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't be *really* worried yet, doesn't seem to be anything not modeled so far 

[snow_wizard]

EPS is better for the second consecutive run.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Hmm really starting to worry about temps considering we will be fighting against daytime heating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This time of year that isn't a huge deal.

[snow_wizard]

The NAM is giving some serious love to Pierce and SW King Counties.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah just your typical pedestrian 966mb low.

That is crazy! I mean, I know back in October I said I was expecting some wind for the Hawks/Niners Game near the Annniversary of the Hannukah Eve Storm of 2006, but 966? On the 16 year anniversary? That's nuts even if it doesn't verify.

 

And then the possibility of arctic air just a few days later? Better make sure the generator is tuned up!

[snow_wizard]

I am almost sold on snow for the Seattle area this afternoon/evening.

[Meatyorologist]

Watching the Dec 12-14 timeframe for something good.

Deep cold builds in Northern Territories and eastern AK around Dec 8-10, then -PNA/-NAO ridge bridge threatens to send it into the area. Small tweaks could mean a quick, sharp Arctic event.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

That is crazy! I mean, I know back in October I said I was expecting some wind for the Hawks/Niners Game near the Annniversary of the Hannukah Eve Storm of 2006, but 966? On the 16 year anniversary? That's nuts even if it doesn't verify.

 

And then the possibility of arctic air just a few days later? Better make sure the generator is tuned up!

It got cold after the Hannukah Eve Storm.  Dropped to 23 here a couple of day later.  That was fun with no power.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Watching the Dec 12-14 timeframe for something good.

Deep cold builds in Northern Territories and eastern AK around Dec 8-10, then -PNA/-NAO ridge bridge threatens to send it into the area. Small tweaks could mean a quick, sharp Arctic event.

Just blown away how this keeps going on.  There are past examples of winters like this, but few and far between.  We will still need January to make it complete though.  It really seems possible we could pull that month off this winter.

[snow_wizard]

The big -NAO gives this a 1968-69 type flavor.  Huge minus NAO that winter and it crushed us.  I went for years thinking -NAO was bad for the West until I really looked at it.

[Perturbed Member]

The 06z NAM is really wet for PDX. Some good amount of precip further north too.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just blown away how this keeps going on.  There are past examples of winters like this, but few and far between.  We will still need January to make it complete though.  It really seems possible we could pull that month off this winter.

Wouldn't it be ironic if after this last half decade of February-dominated winters, we get a NDJ centered winter?

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It got cold after the Hannukah Eve Storm.  Dropped to 23 here a couple of day later.  That was fun with no power.

True. I just remember how wet I was from the pouring rain the wind blew sideways on the way to the game and then the crazy wind on the drive home. Front was facing the wind and soaked. Back was away from the wind and dry. And got home after picking up our 1.5 year old and heading home to the dark. Had to keep the fire going but luckily we only lost power for a little over a day. Had to sleep in the living room to stay away from the greenbelt in the back of the house and just having memories of a hurricane when I was little.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

GEFS was great mid month

Potentially cool pattern, not amplified enough to deliver arctic air. 

[umadbro]

Wet bulb here right now is at 31. 

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with a 42/28 spread yesterday. Currently 27. Even though it doesn’t look like I’ll see any snow tomorrow it will still be fun to watch what the Portland area ends up getting!

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ICON has way impressive coverage over the South Sound than the 0z.  Probably not pushing moisture quite as far north as what will happen though.

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Potentially cool pattern, not amplified enough to deliver arctic air. 

Yeah, just potential at this point. But it's a great place to start. Better runs ahead!

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Potentially cool pattern, not amplified enough to deliver arctic air. 

It's an ensemble mean though.

[Meatyorologist]

Canadian goes insane with blocking, but gets messy with cutoffs. A cleaner pattern would probably be quite cold as the main ridge axis establishes itself right in the sweet spot.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Ended up with a 42/28 spread yesterday. Currently 27. Even though it doesn’t look like I’ll see any snow tomorrow it will still be fun to watch what the Portland area ends up getting!

You might get some.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Canadian goes insane with blocking, but gets messy with cutoffs. A cleaner pattern would probably be quite cold as the main ridge axis establishes itself right in the sweet spot.

No doubt the models are on the upswing right now.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the models are on the upswing right now.

Really it's all quite cold. It feels like this Spring where we can only do good. Cold air keeps being reinforced while there are no real warm mixing patterns to scour it out. Highs struggling to find 40F may be the norm and not the exception this month.

[snow_wizard]

-6 in Winthrop and 4 in Ellensburg right now.  Just an insane run of cold over there the last several weeks.