PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

28 here. How are you so warm?

No way it's phantom snow with cold air already in place 

North breeze is going…keeps the temp up. Temp would drop pretty quick if the wind dies down. Euro shows a decent even here but it’s still a marginal event overall. The dice have been rolling our way this week so maybe it’ll work out. 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

In my opinion when we are within 12 hours of a possible event the models are almost useless. Surface observations, Radar trends, Upper air temps, and satellite imagery are what to use now.

How do those look?

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Euro trending cooler for next weekend compared to 12z

Pretty chilly shot of air with 850mb temps down to -7. Even shows some lowland snow but marginal. 

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  almost a week out and still cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Winterdog]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

27.

Oh and I need more snow. 

Tell me about it.    27 here too.

[seattleweatherguy]

Doesn’t look like snow will make it north of Seattle on Sunday 

[Terreboner]

It got heavier.  Basically white out conditions and it is snowing sideways. 

21.2 degrees Fahrenheit 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  almost a week out and still cold.

Shows the next 2 days being sub 40 then 2 more next weekend. Only in the low 40s next week too. 

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

North breeze is going…keeps the temp up. Temp would drop pretty quick if the wind dies down. Euro shows a decent even here but it’s still a marginal event overall. The dice have been rolling our way this week so maybe it’ll work out. 

Impressive east wind here.  Staying right at 38 which isn't bad at all for being this windy.  Averaged with the dp it's below freezing.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

It got heavier.  Basically white out conditions and it is snowing sideways. 

21.2 degrees Fahrenheit 

From what I can tell this is above what the ECMWF was showing at this point.

[Perturbed Member]

Not sure anyone posted it but the 00z HRRR looked pretty good.

 

The latest 05z run doesn't go far out enough to capture all the snow but it looks pretty good. You can clearly see the gorge outflow based on the snow vs rain boundaries. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

From what I can tell this is above what the ECMWF was showing at this point.

This is insane.  About the hardest I've seen in 4 years. 

[snow_wizard]

FWIW I ended up with about double of what the ECMWF was showing for moisture here last night.  These situations are very difficult for the models.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW I ended up with about double of what the ECMWF was showing for moisture here last night.  These situations are very difficult for the models.

Yep Euro looks like the driest by far again

[Perturbed Member]

18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

In my opinion when we are within 12 hours of a possible event the models are almost useless. Surface observations, Radar trends, Upper air temps, and satellite imagery are what to use now.

I always want snow of course but I especially want this event to overperform because the NWS hasn't issued a single notice about this, not even a special weather statement or anything. Mark is calling for basically nothing or up to a half inch. IMO this thing does have the chance to surprise. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

I always want snow of course but I especially want this event to overperform because the NWS hasn't issued a single notice about this, not even a special weather statement or anything. Mark is calling for basically nothing or up to a half inch. IMO this thing does have the chance to surprise. 

Mark did say we could get more than that 1/2" if the band of heavier precip is over Portland instead of SW WA, and looks like most models keep Portland as the focus of the precip again. Hoping for a surprise like you said

[Gradient Keeper]

Sorry for delay. Just had a sizeable limb snap off my fir tree loud "thud" on the patio cover and house. It just missed the power mast to the house.

Day 9'er

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Mark did say we could get more than that 1/2" if the band of heavier precip is over Portland instead of SW WA, and looks like most models keep Portland as the focus of the precip again. Hoping for a surprise like you said

Fair enough. I noticed the 10 PM PDX NWS AFD is a total copy/paste from early this morning. They are literally still talking about the 06z and 12z runs from 12-18 hours ago. Strange. They clearly don't seem concerned about any potential with this. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

FWIW I ended up with about double of what the ECMWF was showing for moisture here last night.  These situations are very difficult for the models.

Yeah it has apparently worn Cliff Mass out. 

[snow_wizard]

One of the strangest wind maps I've ever seen on the mesonet.  Places just a few miles west of here are having N and even NW winds while easterlies are blasting pretty good here.  Very isolated east wind field.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

That looks kind of nippy.  Holy sheit!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[BLI snowman]

Little windmaker there on the Euro at Day 9 with some 12/14/2006 similarities.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah it has apparently worn Cliff Mass out. 

I'm really liking tomorrow.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Temp climbing a bit here but DP dropping by the same amount. I'm guessing some downslope off the west hills.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33F and mostly cloudy.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Arctic air once again just to our north. I like where this ends, let's hope for a nice e setup after Day 10

EPO and PNA will also be negative at that time. Perhaps a period worth watching? 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm really liking tomorrow.

Dp is 20 here but temp holding in upper 30s. Wind is howling. 

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF has snow over the ocean next Friday.  I usually consider that the real clue that it will certainly be cold enough for lowland snow.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Arctic air once again just to our north. I like where this ends, let's hope for a nice e setup after Day 10

EPO and PNA will also be negative at that time. Perhaps a period worth watching? 

Late this coming week is worth watching now also.

[snow_wizard]

Arctic blast signature on that surface high complex at day 10.  That zone of lowest pressure is moving south.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Temp climbing a bit here but DP dropping by the same amount. I'm guessing some downslope off the west hills.

Definitely downslope

[MossMan]

It’s coming. 
What snow I have might be around for quite a while! 
Moon is bright tonight! 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Little windmaker there on the Euro at Day 9 with some 12/14/2006 similarities.

That is nasty looking.

[Gradient Keeper]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Little windmaker there on the Euro at Day 9 with some 12/14/2006 similarities.

Yeah just your typical pedestrian 966mb low.

[snow_wizard]

I have to tip my hat to the incredible duration of this cold regime.  Quite a performance and we have no idea how much further it might go.

My firewood supply is already a lot lower than I like at this time.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Weird day in Southern California today. We were in a dry sector between an AR to our north and an AR to our south. Made it into the low 70s here while Phoenix was rainy and in the low 50s at the same time. That huge low off the coast is causing very strange weather. 

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That is nasty looking.

Guess I better change the oil in the generator. It has already run about 70 hours just last month.