PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty crazy pattern in Lala land. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Be back 9:45 PM. Maybe.

[Terreboner]

Climatological biases in full effect on the GFS and GEFS, and the Euro to some extent, which lends a little credence to what Rob is saying.  I believe they have a way of "correcting" themselves inside of 120 hours.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Rob is right. The GFS and GEFS were showing snow for puget sound for last night all the way until the bitter end. Guess what? It didn't happen and surface temps were 40F+. It is seriously a useless model.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Do you want me to pretend the GFS is worth analyzing, posting day and night? Not anymore unless it has full EURO/EPS support, or rather moves towards them. Otherwise it's just a waste of time.

Yes we do. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Weather channel is more accurate than GFS/GEFS because it also takes input from the EPS/Euro and maybe some IBM model?

[Terreboner]

Finally, a very good read from the peeps at Pendleton AFD.  This could be very fun overnight and tomorrow.

 

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A challenging forecast
presents itself as guidance is struggling with the placement of
crucial mesoscale features, and still exhibits some slight, but
important, differences in the synoptic pattern.

The main upper-level, cut-off low is visible just offshore in water
vapor imagery and continues to slowly track southeast. The main
surface low is visible on both visible and Day Cloud Phase satellite
products, located offshore in the northeast Pacific and also
tracking slowly southeast. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are
in excellent agreement that these features will both track southeast
through the night with the surface and parent upper lows both
gradually filling in as they approach the southwest Oregon coast. By
06Z tonight, some subtle placement differences become apparent in
current 12-18Z deterministic guidance as well as 12Z ensemble mean
500 mb heights and vorticity. All guidance agrees on diffluent
southerly flow aloft, but exact location of the mid-level vorticity
maximum remain slightly different among guidance. Moreover,
deterministic runs are hinting at a secondary surface low forming in
south-central or southeast Oregon overnight into Sunday morning.
Model-to-model and run-to-run variances are quite significant with
the NAM favoring a more westward placement in central Oregon while
the HRRR tracks this feature much further east into southeast
Oregon. Of concern, the ECMWF EFI paints a bullseye for
climatologically unusual precipitation and snowfall right over
central Oregon with positive Shift of Tails (SoT) exceeding values
of 1 indicating some extreme outliers among ensemble members.
Indeed, delving further into ensemble members reveals substantial
uncertainty in precipitation totals and snowfall for much of central
and eastern Oregon, dependent upon where the secondary surface low
tracks and where the band of heavy precipitation sets up.

The takeaway is that forecast uncertainty remains notably high for
such a short lead time, and impacts from the moderate to heavy snow
band will be moderate to high, wherever it forms. For now,
confidence in advisory-level snowfall for central Oregon has
prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for 06Z Sunday to 06Z Monday,
though other areas of north-central Oregon through the foothills of
the Blue Mountains and into the eastern mountains may also see
impactful snowfall through Monday as wraparound snow showers linger.

[Gradient Keeper]

16 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

The main reason Rob is upset is that low level cold and strong east wind has basically disappeared... I can't blame him.

No, and I don't think that's disappearing.

[DeepFriedEgg]

I'm on demon time today sorry guys.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Like a smoothed mean is going to make a massive jump on one run. Come on guys. 

At 5 or 6 days out... it would get close.    It did not even trend in the direction of the operational.  

Either way... if it waits a couple more days before snapping the ridge rubber band over Canada we might get and even better set up.   

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes we do. 

And support from the NAM, GEM, WRF, ICON, GOLU, and GLAAM.

[Terreboner]

Oh, and never forget the Jim model.  That one calls for heavy snow even when 850s are +10.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty crazy pattern in Lala land. 

The 18Z Goofus being the 18Z Goofus...

[Meatyorologist]

Rain and cats. Pretty Seattle-y

[selkirks]

Facts:

• ECMWF is a superior model to GFS overall
• GFS has some serious flaws, which weren't fixed by the last update, particularly for the PNW with our topography and microclimates
• Precip type is always going to be hard to forecast in our region, with any model.
• More than five days out we should be trusting the ensembles more than the operationals anyway
• We *could* possibly be seeing some model improvement a week out
• Model riding isn't healthy

[Snownerd3000]

All the sh*t posting aboit the GFS, let's keep in mind, for the most recent marginal events, wasn't it a leader in performance or a I full it? 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Rain and cats. Pretty Seattle-y

SEA is actually running wetter than normal for December now!  

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, selkirks said:

Facts:

• ECMWF is a superior model to GFS overall
• GFS has some serious flaws, which weren't fixed by the last update, particularly for the PNW with our topography and microclimates
• More than five days out we should be trusting the ensembles more than the operationals anyway
• We *could* possibly be seeing some model improvement a week out
• Model riding isn't healthy

Who ever said touch grass is right. I'll catch up on models after some poker tonight. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

We need to get W7ENK to inject some cold hard truth back into this forum.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

SEA is actually running wetter than normal for December now!  

That is a crazy fact. Feels so dry except for today 

[TT-SEA]

Dry out here again... we have had much less rain today than Seattle with everything moving north.    Snow cover hanging on... but definitely shrinking.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Rob is right. The GFS and GEFS were showing snow for puget sound for last night all the way until the bitter end. Guess what? It didn't happen and surface temps were 40F+. It is seriously a useless model.

And it showed it snowing here right up to the last minute when almost all othrt models showed just rain. It snowed here for about 6 hrs but only added up to 1/2 inch. 3 Miles from here it snowed 2.5 inches.

[Nov1985]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS has snow down to sea level in southern CA just before Christmas.   

Hang on, let me go reboot the Raspberry Pi that GFS runs on. Something is clearly not working right.

[Nov1985]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And it showed it snowing here right up to the last minute when almost all othrt models showed just rain. It snowed here for about 6 hrs but only added up to 1/2 inch. 3 Miles from here it snowed 2.5 inches.

But GFS showed it snowing and accumulating in many places last night where it didn't even snow. It's broken.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And it showed it snowing here right up to the last minute when almost all othrt models showed just rain. It snowed here for about 6 hrs but only added up to 1/2 inch. 3 Miles from here it snowed 2.5 inches.

It showed about a foot of snow here last night and today just 2 or 3 days ago.    Actual accumulation was zero.

[RentonHill]

Consistent with my practice of only posting GEFS when it’s improved, here is day 10

[TT-SEA]

One note on the GFS... it almost always runs too cold and in marginal situations it has massive errors in snow totals.   Nothing has changed since the upgrade.   

But that is not an issue when the situation is not marginal.    So assuming its always wrong with snow totals is probably incorrect.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like my brother made it up the the property,  I see tracks.

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Hang on, let me go reboot the Raspberry Pi that GFS runs on. Something is clearly not working right.

isn't the most snow LA has seen like a trace over a century ago?

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Consistent with my practice of only posting GEFS when it’s improved, here is day 10

I only look at model runs that show blizzards and single digit temps

[Snownerd3000]

Im gonna get properly piss drunk playing poker tonight(I'll do my best to out pace the Druncle), lose my buy in and come on the forum just in time for the EPS. Everyone will have a kumbaiya moment and all will be well again. 

[snow_wizard]

Ensemble mean continues to get better.  850s drop to -6.5 on the mean as opposed to -4 on the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Consistent with my practice of only posting GEFS when it’s improved, here is day 10

I was going to mention that it was finally better than the 12Z run by day 10.     

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

When I get my house built over there I'm going to pick 1 weekend a year in the winter and invite the forum to come up and play in the snow and spend the night if they wish. Something like that had always been my plan. 

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

But GFS showed it snowing and accumulating in many places last night where it didn't even snow. It's broken.

It also out performed last snow. So it isn't fully broken 

[Terreboner]

I have plenty of booze, stopped on my way home today.  Going to get nice and liquored up for the hopefully snowy overnight and tomorrow!!!!

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When I get my house built over there I'm going to pick 1 weekend a year in the winter and invite the forum to come up and play in the snow and spend the night if they wish. Something like that had always been my plan. 

Party! 

[snow_wizard]

Month to date average 36.5 IMBY.  The cold first third leaves us in the running for one of the coldest Decembers on record.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Im gonna get properly piss drunk playing poker tonight(I'll do my best to out pace the Druncle), lose my buy in and come on the forum just in time for the EPS. Everyone will have a kumbaiya moment and all will be well again. 

Bet on Nevada to cover the +7.5 at Oregon tonight if you use an offshore book. I don't bet on college hoops because I feel that it's against the spirit of what I do.

Other college sports like college football tho...I made some $ for the bankroll this season.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

When I get my house built over there I'm going to pick 1 weekend a year in the winter and invite the forum to come up and play in the snow and spend the night if they wish. Something like that had always been my plan. 

Sounds great! 

I also hope that better winters become the new normal so we can have some here as well.