Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 2 (4-run trend) Similar trend. Ridge notch stronger, amplified, and energy a notch further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 GFS will be similar/a bit better than its last run. The downstream implications of changes to initial conditions are pretty easy to predict, I've been right virtually every time for the last two days. 3 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Sucks how quickly the models try to decapitate the blocking up in Alaska. That would be a pretty wicked airmass coming south if it held a little longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 2.5 (4-run trend) Block a few notches further west in BC, pivoting and energy southwest of block/kona shunted a bit more to the west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Sucks how quickly the models try to decapitate the blocking up in Alaska. That would be a pretty wicked airmass coming south if it held a little longer. Maybe if something like what the 00z Euro showed happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: GFS will be similar/a bit better than its last run. The downstream implications of changes to initial conditions are pretty easy to predict, I've been right virtually every time for the last two days. 12Z GFS is coming in faster... but also looks like block is lifting north a little faster. Not sure if that is good or bad. 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 3 (4-run trend) Small cut-off low near base of block fading more, energy west of block riding north a notch, block shifting further west in Yukon/northern BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: Maybe if something like what the 00z Euro showed happens Could happen. We need it to hold awhile longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 It's going to force a tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Block amplifying and migrating north sooner too. Don't like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 This isn't going to be in our favor.. Suspect it digs bit more west in BC and stalls. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 4 (4-run trend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 4 (4-run trend) It’s going to do a three point turn and back down into us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: It’s going to do a three point turn and back down into us No doubt it will find a way to bury Seattle in snow... its a given on every run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Ridge is rocketing up into the arctic. This is going to be garbage run sorry to say. We better hope the Euro/EPS handles the block differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Looks fine to me Rob. I don't see any driver out in the pacific to continue that northward progression of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Ridge is rocketing up into the arctic. This is going to be garbage run sorry to say. GEM and Euro are a lot stronger with the block thankfully. Hopefully the GFS caves 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 The ICON was crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 5 (4-run trend) Arctic air stalling in BC as we lose ridge support due to it racing north into the arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Seems ok so far Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Washington doesn't even get arctic air this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Chill 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 6 Well that was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 6 850s That won't get the job done unless you live near Omak or Spokane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Even with 925mb temps at -1C over Seattle on Monday afternoon on this run... moisture is incoming and it will tap into the cold air to the north and show tons of snow over Seattle. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 25 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: GFS will be similar/a bit better than its last run. The downstream implications of changes to initial conditions are pretty easy to predict, I've been right virtually every time for the last two days. I’m feeling a big jinx coming from this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Get your lucky rabbits foot for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 This is the pullback, rebound will be tomorrow night. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 3 (4-run trend) Small cut-off low near base of block fading more, energy west of block riding north a notch, block shifting further west in Yukon/northern BC. Quite the big low pressure area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Day 7 the outlier portion of the model run wants to drop the polar lobe slowly south towards us. Would be nice if it were true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Perfect run imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 This run is massively snowy for the North Sound and Vancouver Island... tapping into Fraser outflow with tons of moisture coming in on Monday into Tuesday. Here is Tuesday morning temps and total snowfall. 3 3 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 7 the outlier portion of the model run wants to drop the polar lobe slowly south towards us. Would be nice if it were true. This is kind of in line with the euro. Send the ridge into the arctic, cut it off and quickly rebuild it before we lose the lobe of cold air to our north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 7 the outlier portion of the model run wants to drop the polar lobe slowly south towards us. Would be nice if it were true. That kind of looks similar to what the 00z Euro does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: This run is massively snowy for the North Sound and Vancouver Island... tapping into Fraser outflow with tons of moisture coming in on Monday into Tuesday. Here is Tuesday morning temps and total snowfall. Gem looks very similar but is a bit weaker with the CAA and ends up a bit more north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Tough morning so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Wow.. and then it turns into an arctic front on Tuesday and temps are crashing in Seattle with snow. 1 1 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 Anything after day 6 on Op runs lately are probably similar to meth psychosis or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terreboner Posted December 13, 2022 Report Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: This run is massively snowy for the North Sound and Vancouver Island... tapping into Fraser outflow with tons of moisture coming in on Monday into Tuesday. Here is Tuesday morning temps and total snowfall. Almost looks like a cutoff low comes in from the SW with this map. Where is all this snow in Cental/Eastern OR coming from? Couldn't be the same system blasting NW WA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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