PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Honestly an arctic blast with that signature is long overdue. One where the cold air advects in more directly from the ENE as opposed to slowly bleeding through cracks in the BC interior down into the Fraser River.

Dec 2009.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Ohhhhhhhhhh

[Christensen87]

Oh this could get fun…

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

This is amazing. Colder runs ahead! MBG!

00z ECMWF in 58 minutes

[High Desert Mat?]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Good lord. Will it ever stop?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Good lord. Will it ever stop?

No.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dec 2009.

Yeah as well as the two big 2013-14 airmasses.

Late February and early March 2019 sort of had that on a much weaker level, but most of the meatier airmasses that have flirted with the region in the last 5 years have been border huggers that never developed particularly impressive high pressure into eastern WA.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Good lord. Will it ever stop?

384 hours

[Slushy Inch]

First trough at 144 hours on GEFS.

[Front Ranger]

No sign of Arctic blast on the Canadian.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

No sign of Arctic blast on the Canadian.

Canadians and Americans can never get along. 

Last time it was a relentless assault of polar lobes on the Canadian and nothing on the GFS 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No sign of Arctic blast on the Canadian.

Canadian is kind of a crap model luckily.

[Kolk1604]

00z GEFS also has snow this weekend 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z GEFS also has snow this weekend 

An increase over 18z.

[Gradient Keeper]

I sense A LOT of Night Shift's ahead

[Slushy Inch]

Glad to see GEFS is so much better.

[bishbish777]

You can see a clear difference between the GFS and the WRF-GFS on upper air temps for this weekend. Here is at 57 hours.

 

 

WAA seems to be way underdone on the GFS. Doesn't seem like it's doing too good LOL.

[LowerGarfield]

18z GFS is trending on Twitter.

[Kolk1604]

00z GEFS hour 165

[Brennan]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

00z GEFS hour 165

Perfection.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

18z GFS is trending on Twitter.

Big storm shows up back east 

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dec 2009.

I will only except 12/09 if it’s moist this time. Driest blast ever. Boring. Next. 

[ShawniganLake]

Some may find this interesting. Not what I expected 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well… Somewhat interesting run. Maybe a warning shot. The big stuff is waiting

for Christmas. 

[FroYoBro]

It has been 38 degrees here for the last 8 hours. 

[MWG]

I'll take our high for today was 32F right now is 31F.

[BLI snowman]

 

3 minutes ago, MWG said:

I'll take our high for today was 32F right now is 31F.

Coldest high at MFR since 1/6/2017.

The times they are-a-changin'.

Edited December 8, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No sign of Arctic blast on the Canadian.

Absolute blowtorch.   T shirts and shorts weather over here.

OK not a blowtorch.  So maybe not arctic but pretty chilly.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Absolute blowtorch.   T shirts and shorts weather over here.

OK not a blowtorch.  So maybe not arctic but pretty chilly.

Big time low level cold.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

It has been 38 degrees here for the last 8 hours. 

41 here and breezy.

[Front Ranger]

28 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Canadian is kind of a crap model luckily.

It scores a bit better than the GFS...

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

It scores a bit better than the GFS...

Actually?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

21 minutes ago, MWG said:

I'll take our high for today was 32F right now is 31F.

You broke the streak congrats!

Looks like we're all alone now unless Roseburg is also in the same situation. South Corvallis maybe too. OSU has had one back in Feb 2021 during the freezing rain event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@TigerWoodsLibido ready for

some BSF while everyone north of Wilsonville gets buried!

[MWG]

5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

You broke the streak congrats!

Looks like we're all alone now unless Roseburg is also in the same situation. South Corvallis maybe too. OSU has had one back in Feb 2021 during the freezing rain event.

Looks like Roseburg made it to 50F today! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Everyone just stopped talking about the ensemble run…

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Everyone just stopped talking about the ensemble run…

Looks good at least from what I can see

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS looks outstanding. The block is excellent at just Day 7. Here is Day 8

Day 9.5 850s and surface temps are very cold for an ensemble mean.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Everyone just stopped talking about the ensemble run…

I'll break the silence.

Edit:  Rob beat me to it, but here's day 9

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Kolk1604]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Guys... It's time 

[Winterdog]

Backdoor blasts for those of us up here are like kissing your own sister.  They may look nice but there's definitely something missing.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Backdoor blasts for those of us up here are like kissing your sister.  They may look nice but there's definitely something missing.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The low's going too far north for much fun this weekend on the 0z ECMWF.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not sure if we see an arctic blast this run, but there is definitely a bitter low level blast!

 

It's cold no matter how you slice it.  High chance of a top 10% cold December after the top 5 to 10% cold November.