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PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.


The Blob

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7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Pretty good run. A lot of potential. Focusing on Day 4 to 6 at this point. Seems like a decent bet someone from Everett to PDX sees another shot at lowland snow although it may be brief.

Just needs a little nip here, a tuck there, and it turns into a decent snow event with a couples days notice.

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

If the GFS and 12z ECMWF are correct the first half of December will be really cold.

Almost a given at this point.    SEA is currently running -8 for a 1/3rd of that period and there is nothing even close to warmer than normal in sight.   Without any significant warm. wet SW flow it seems likely that the entire month will end up cold.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Almost a given at this point.    SEA is currently running -8 for a 1/3rd of that period and there is nothing even close to warmer than normal in sight.   Without any significant warm. wet SW flow it seems likely that the entire month will end up cold.

Yeah EPS surface temps after Day 6 shows the Gorge and Columbia Basin(WA) never reaches freezing progressively turning colder through the end of the run. A definite prolonged cold pool signature which likely means a multi-day east wind episode for the Gorge/PDX metro.

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Mid month inversions looking likely. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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There has been precip on the radar over my area most of the night and the current 925mb temp is -1C and there is no south wind... and yet there is only light rain falling and my snow cover went down a little more overnight.    Current temp is 33.    I was sure there would be at least some snow falling when I turned on the outside light.

ECMWF shows the south wind picking up this afternoon then light wind tomorrow and a stronger south wind on Thursday.  The south wind is definitely a snow killer here.    Its pretty rare to have accumulating snow with a south wind here even with a 925mb temp well below freezing.    It is also unfortunately effective at melting existing snow cover.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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06Z ECMWF shows a high of 43 at SEA every day through Friday.    Pretty consistent.   

I am trying to find a way the 00Z GFS could be right with the snow event it showed for Friday but its a big stretch this time.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z ECMWF shows a high of 43 at SEA every day through Friday.    Pretty consistent.   

I am trying to find a way the 00Z GFS could be right with the snow event it showed for Friday but its a big stretch this time.    

So you’re trying to tell me that Seattle isn’t going to get a major snowstorm for every cool maritime trough this winter? 
 

BS!!!!!

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

So you’re trying to tell me that Seattle isn’t going to get a major snowstorm for every cool maritime trough this winter? 
 

BS!!!!!

Bur there has been lowland snow with every one of them... guessing there are several more events ahead in the next 10 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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LMAO Michael Snyder used his connections with KSEA ATC and NWS Seattle to ret-con the Trace of snow on the 4th into 0.1" of measurable snow. Officially. On the NWS Climate Data web page. I am not kidding, you can check.

This means KSEA now has 6 straight days of measurable snow with this wintry pattern instead of just 5, and another 0.1" on the season.

Dude made a couple of phone calls and weenied his way into literally adding more snow. That doesn't happen. Even when justified like in this case. Absolutely ABSURD. I have never, ever seen anything remotely like it. Absolute legend.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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I'm sorry, it's just... I can't believe this has hardly really made the rounds here. Do y'all realize the implications of this??! He can just add snow at his own whim. I can't stop snickering right now.

A god. Truly, a god. He's playing #wawx in creative mode with noclip enabled

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

LMAO Michael Snyder used his connections with KSEA ATC and NWS Seattle to ret-con the Trace of snow on the 4th into 0.1" of measurable snow. Officially. On the NWS Climate Data web page. I am not kidding, you can check.

This means KSEA now has 6 straight days of measurable snow with this wintry pattern instead of just 5, and another 0.1" on the season.

Dude made a couple of phone calls and weenied his way into literally adding more snow. That doesn't happen. Even when justified like in this case. Absolutely ABSURD. I have never, ever seen anything remotely like it. Absolute legend.

If the observer didn't **** it up, he wouldn't have to. And from the sound of it, they should have added more to the snowfall total too. Glad they corrected the record. 

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Jim would be so fucking proud

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

If the observer didn't **** it up, he wouldn't have to. And from the sound of it, they should have added more to the snowfall total too. Glad they corrected the record. 

No, I get it. I'm still salty that 12/27/2021 has a high of 27F. A 4F outlier from literally every station within 50 miles, probably because of some stupid airplane exhaust. It sabotaged the coldest high temperature reading since Dec 1990. A travesty.

It's just that Michael has the power to change the weather to what he pleases, I suppose. And I am all for it, power to him. I back it 100%. He's right, it definitley, obviously measurably snowed on the 4th of this month. No arguments there.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No, I get it. I'm still salty that 12/27/2021 has a high of 27F. A 4F outlier from literally every station within 50 miles, probably because of some stupid airplane exhaust. It sabotaged the coldest high temperature reading since Dec 1990. A travesty.

It's just that Michael has the power to change the weather to what he pleases, I suppose. And I am all for it, power to him. I back it 100%. He's right, it definitley, obviously measurably snowed on the 4th of this month. No arguments there.

Good job Mr. Snyder.

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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