PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow at anything 25 or lower is incredible.

It was 19 degrees when I took this pic last December…Felt like I was up at Mt Baker! Powder was awesome! 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

https://www.klcc.org/environment/2022-12-06/survey-shows-unprecedented-fir-tree-die-off-in-the-pacific-northwest

As I have mentioned to Jesse the mountain where I mine gold has huge Douglas Fir trees that are hundreds of years old that are dying off.  It's a very rare biome that features those huge old trees and sage brush in the same area.  The growth rings are tiny and yet some of the trees are three to four feet in diameter.  So sad to see them dying.

[Terreboner]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Snow at anything 25 or lower is incredible.

Then you would've loved last weekend here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (4-run trend)

[bainbridgekid]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@MR.SNOWMIZER

The Ensembles definitely think the Bremerton airport is around 1,500 feet somewhere in the Eastern Olympic Mountains.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Depending on what happens here Friday night and the way the pattern looks coming up, snow on the ground here looks to stay for awhile. Might be a record stretch for snow on the ground in places out here.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Depending on what happens here Friday night and the way the pattern looks coming up, snow on the ground here looks to stay for awhile. Might be a record stretch for snow on the ground in places out here.

I wouldn't rule out all winter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I have mentioned to Jesse the mountain where I mine gold has huge Douglas Fir trees that are hundreds of years old that are dying off.  It's a very rare biome that features those huge old trees and sage brush in the same area.  The growth rings are tiny and yet some of the trees are three to four feet in diameter.  So sad to see them dying.

Do u just pan for gold? Or, do u have a whole set up?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So far gfs looks maybe a little better for snow chances around Puget sound Saturday morning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (4-run trend)

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wouldn't rule out all winter.

Never know! I had snow on the ground from February 3rd to March 17th 2019. My snow mounds made it until March 21st! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MossMan said:

Never know! I had snow on the ground from February 3rd to March 17th 2019. My snow mounds made it until March 21st! 

We made it till about the 30th. Crazy when you think about it.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So far gfs looks maybe a little better for snow chances around Puget sound Saturday morning. 

It's nice to see that low taking a more southerly track in a few of the models now. Would be nice if it ran ashore and didn't stall out and die off the coast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow snowier for Puget sound with the low center further south a tad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve only had it snow at under 25 degrees twice here. December 2013 and February 2014. Out in Oklahoma it was actually pretty common. 

[bainbridgekid]

Oh GFS you goofy goofy SOB.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wow snowier for Puget sound with the low center further south a tad.

 

[Ice_is_Everywhere]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Oh GFS you goofy goofy SOB.

 

What are the high temps for this period?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (4-run trend)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

What are the high temps for this period?

Must be 15 or 20.

[Snownerd3000]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I have mentioned to Jesse the mountain where I mine gold has huge Douglas Fir trees that are hundreds of years old that are dying off.  It's a very rare biome that features those huge old trees and sage brush in the same area.  The growth rings are tiny and yet some of the trees are three to four feet in diameter.  So sad to see them dying.

Did you say you mine gold? 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (4-run trend)

[Snownerd3000]

9 minutes ago, Ice_is_Everywhere said:

What are the high temps for this period?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 850s, 925s. Flow turns northeasterly and cold air already coming in through the back door.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5 925mb low level cold intensifying quickly.

[bishbish777]

The GFS just seems really bad in this situation for Fri/Sat. Basically every other model has surface temps at Seattle near 40 at the same time the GFS has them around 33-34. This does not seem close to a snow situation for Puget Sound.

[ShawniganLake]

38 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Holy pancakes. Massive snowstorm here

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 There just isn't any high pressure across the high latitudes. None.

[Meatyorologist]

So weird how we're getting the same obscure snowstorm type three times in the span of ten days. It only really happens when high latitude blocking sets up just too far to the west and an ULL spawns out of the Arctic air spilled out over the ocean to our NW.

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 There just isn't any high pressure across the high latitudes. None.

That is one mega dome. Imagine those two loves joined into one giant block. 560s across Canada. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7 There just isn't any high pressure across the high latitudes. None.

Poor Canada is gonna torch HARD!

[Gradient Keeper]

Not sure if we see an arctic blast this run, but there is definitely a bitter low level blast!

 

[Meatyorologist]

Some July-esque wavenumbers

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Rumor has it some places were in the minus teens in the Puget Sound region in January 1893 and I believe NW OR did -20 somewhere in January 1930.  So those number are on the edge of possible.  Not in Seattle proper though IMO.

I think it was Longview or Kelso?

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been almost nineteen years since we’ve had snow falling at that temperature here. Came close in 2008 and 2014.

I think we had snow falling at 18f here at least in 2014. That was a great event. I think the second coldest I've seen snow while living here was 2021 but I think it might been a mix of precip rather than just snow at the coldest but I'm not sure

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some July-esque wavenumbers

I was just thinking it looks like a ridiculously-amplified summer pattern. Kind of a version of what a summer pattern would be like with winter forcing. Models are gonna flounder for a while.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I think we had snow falling at 18f here at least in 2014. That was a great event. I think the second coldest I've seen snow while living here was 2021 but I think it might been a mix of precip rather than just snow at the coldest but I'm not sure

We bottomed out at 19 on 2/6 with the snow falling. Great event overall.  

[Gradient Keeper]

CoLD

[Kolk1604]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Not sure if we see an arctic blast this run, but there is definitely a bitter low level blast!

 

Cold air starts spilling into the northwest at Day 9

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Probably not going to get 40"+ of snow over most of Vancouver Island on this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Back door intrusion 

[Gradient Keeper]

Uh............

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhhhhhh........

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[VancouverIslandSouth]

OR finally gets an Arctic front - 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 8

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

CoLD

And reload coming.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

OR finally gets an Arctic front - 

Honestly an arctic blast with that signature is long overdue. One where the cold air advects in more directly from the ENE as opposed to slowly bleeding through cracks in the BC interior down into the Fraser River.