PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining and 36. 

[LowerGarfield]

6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Could be the coldest since last winter for sure

Yes. The coldest I personally saw last winter was 3F and my neighbors who have their station facing north (ours is SE facing) had theirs in the negative -F of course since we're in the states.

[TT-SEA]

Good morning... I see the GFS finally woke up!  

The 06Z EPS is a colder than the 00Z run at 144 hours.    Its definitely coming.  

[TT-SEA]

Oh... and the control run is even better.   More over water trajectory.    Pretty sure Saturday is going to be really snowy in western WA.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife may be right. She says it always snows when I go to Oklahoma in the winter. Just have to make sure she is getting proper stats for me.
 

Timing is moving up too. Just have to hope I get back in time for the massive overrunning blizzard. 
 

Seriously though it would be nice to have at least a couple days of full decoupling with an arctic airmass. Seems like that’s a very tall task the past 30 years… 

Edited December 12, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

Saturday might end up being similar to 12/26/21 in the Seattle area.   Arctic front coming southward with a ULL to provide lots of moisture.  Arctic fronts from the north tend to be much wetter than the models originally show.    Its very easy for a ULL to form in that situation.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now my best guess is arctic front cruises through the pnw over the weekend, some kind of overrunning event occurs middle of next week, and then a firehose sets in for 7-10 days. Hopefully snow levels stay below the passes because we have a massive snow pack right now, a rain on snow event is definitely possible the weekend after next. Best case scenario the block holds or the overrunning storm is suppressed and we stay relatively cool longer. Hard to say, models are obviously still playing catch up. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Saturday might end up being similar to 12/26/21 in the Seattle area.   Arctic front coming southward with a ULL to provide lots of moisture.  Arctic fronts from the north tend to be much wetter than the models originally show.    Its very easy for a ULL to form in that situation.   

This has the appearances of being a stronger push of arctic air. The one last year really stalled out, which probably helped enhance low development along it. Of course this century these things have a tendency to get watered down so something similar is probably not out of the question. And even if it does push south it could still spin up a low for the puget sound area. 1990 blast penetrated into California and still had plenty of snowy action with fropa in Seattle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@TT-SEA

Are you starting to get the vibe Christmas weekend has strong AR potential?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

@TT-SEA

Are you starting to get the vibe Christmas weekend has strong AR potential?

I was just thinking about that... too early to know what happens on the other side but an overrunning snowstorm is definitely possible.  Maybe even likely.    

I am just happy that the trend right now is for there to be snow going into the cold.  That is the best.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Reminder. Gfs has an obvious bias to overdo CAA…

Great run. I just hope I can thread the needle and not have any flight disruptions getting back to PDX next week… have a feeling I will be returning to a frozen landscape. Still think we have major blast potential but a lot of details left to be determined. Going to be a long winter. 

That it does which makes it very intriguing the 00z ECMWF was the strongest with CAA blasting the arctic front southward over WA/OR instead of the usual intrusion with the boundary oozing southward. To see the Euro doing that makes me wonder if this could possibly be big league blast potential coming.

12z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

That it does which makes it very intriguing the 00z ECMWF was the strongest with CAA blasting the arctic front southward over WA/OR instead of the usual intrusion with the boundary oozing southward. To see the Euro doing that makes me wonder if this could possibly be big league blast potential coming.

12z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes

Would be amazing. We can get defined arctic fronts. It used to be much more common. We ll see. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That it does which makes it very intriguing the 00z ECMWF was the strongest with CAA blasting the arctic front southward over WA/OR instead of the usual intrusion with the boundary oozing southward. To see the Euro doing that makes me wonder if this could possibly be big league blast potential coming.

12z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes

Just looked at the 00Z ECMWF again... it really does plow the arctic air southward across the PNW.    And things are still trending colder based on the 06 runs.  

[LowerGarfield]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife may be right. She says it always snows when I go to Oklahoma in the winter. Just have to make sure she is getting proper stats for me.
 

Timing is moving up too. Just have to hope I get back in time for the massive overrunning blizzard. 
 

Seriously though it would be nice to have at least a couple days of full decoupling with an arctic airmass. Seems like that’s a very tall task the past 30 years… 

How do you or anyone else record snow totals if you are gone. I'm debating paying someone to measure and take a photo but on the other hand I don't know if I trust even my spouse to get an accurate measurement.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, LowerGarfield said:

How do you or anyone else record snow totals if you are gone. I'm debating paying someone to measure and take a photo but on the other hand I don't know if I trust even my spouse to get an accurate measurement.

He has a pet Sasquatch named Mitch that he has successfully trained to perform basic remedial tasks including measuring snow and chopping fire wood. Okay, I need more sleep.

12z ECMWF In 3 hours 35 minutes

[Prairiedog]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That it does which makes it very intriguing the 00z ECMWF was the strongest with CAA blasting the arctic front southward over WA/OR instead of the usual intrusion with the boundary oozing southward. To see the Euro doing that makes me wonder if this could possibly be big league blast potential coming.

12z GFS in 1 hour 35 minutes

I'm just curious if or when NWS will bite.  I'm not impressed overall with even Marks 7-day.  Overnight temps are cold but daytime temps are borderline run of the mill.  I'd love to see daytime temps (at least out of the wind temps) at or below freezing for this to be really outstanding.  I'll take what we get, though.  We always want more. 

Is CP going to be in play this next weekend for good winds or will that be minimized some with an actual arctic front moving through?  Not sure I see this as a raging east wind event, yet. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How do you or anyone else record snow totals if you are gone. I'm debating paying someone to measure and take a photo but on the other hand I don't know if I trust even my spouse to get an accurate measurement.

My wife will measure for me. She ll complain about it and insult me, but she will do it a couple times a day at most. So it’s not always the most accurate but at least it’s something. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife will measure for me. She ll complain about it and insult me, but she will do it a couple times a day at most. So it’s not always the most accurate but at least it’s something. 

Not sure I could convince my wife to be bothered with measuring snow.  

[Gradient Keeper]

[LowerGarfield]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife will measure for me. She ll complain about it and insult me, but she will do it a couple times a day at most. So it’s not always the most accurate but at least it’s something. 

Do you count it as part of your totals? Have you ever paid a friend or neighbor to do that? 

[Meatyorologist]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Good morning... I see the GFS finally woke up!  

The 06Z EPS is a colder than the 00Z run at 144 hours.    Its definitely coming.  

Oh wow! It really may be coming. Very optimistic but still not holding my breath... Mind you this is still six days out in a winter where nothing has been guaranteed.

[Meatyorologist]

The worst part about a favorable model flip on a Sunday night is that today is going to be so challenging to not spill the beans to friends and coworkers.

"Aidan, why are you the only one in a good mood? It's a Monday!"

[TacomaWx]

Not on board yet but this has got my attention now. Very strong signal but just a couple weeks ago we had major model issues…and things will get adjusted and more towards reality as we move forward. Pretty good model consensus now which we didn’t have yesterday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Do you count it as part of your totals? Have you ever paid a friend or neighbor to do that? 

No, my wife does come with me on some of my trips during the winter, but interesting it’s never snowed back at home during those times. My in laws usually stay here when we both go and my father in law would measure. He always sends me his totals when it snows in Eugene. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not on board yet but this has got my attention now. Very strong signal but just a couple weeks ago we had major model issues…and things will get adjusted and more towards reality as we move forward. Pretty good model consensus now which we didn’t have yesterday. 

The consistency of the EPS has me on board.    Additionally... every model seems to be trending colder and we are talking about an event that is only 5 days away.    Time to get on board! 

[Kayla]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The consistency of the EPS has me on board.    Additionally... every model seems to be trending colder and we are talking about an event that is only 5 days away.    Time to get on board! 

Great Falls NWS is definitely NOT on board! Just your typical day with a little snowfall and some "gusty" winds on Saturday!

Saturday through next Monday...Numerical Model Guidance becomes
wildly divergent at this point. Model ensembles hint at a slight
chance to a chance of a period of brief snowfall in association
with some gusty winds on Saturday for north central and central
Montana. The remainder of the weekend and into Monday looks dry
and very cold.
- Fogleman

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Idk if it means anything, but my dogs have started eating an extreme amount of food the past few days. Maybe they sense the impending January 1950 redux. Or it’s time to deworm…

[Prairiedog]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Great Falls NWS is definitely NOT on board! Just your typical day with a little snowfall and some "gusty" winds on Saturday!

Saturday through next Monday...Numerical Model Guidance becomes
wildly divergent at this point. Model ensembles hint at a slight
chance to a chance of a period of brief snowfall in association
with some gusty winds on Saturday for north central and central
Montana. The remainder of the weekend and into Monday looks dry
and very cold.
- Fogleman

Their forecast seems to have the same uncertainty as ours in the Portland region.  This makes me hesitant to jump in yet. 

Around 40% of ensemble guidance keeps the
shortwave ridge close enough to the region to maintain dry weather,
keep valleys cool while mountain and coastal locations likely
experience more moderated temperatures next weekend. Around 20% of
ensemble guidance results in the bulk of the arctic air sliding east
of the Continental Divide while maintaining dry weather across the
region.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The consistency of the EPS has me on board.    Additionally... every model seems to be trending colder and we are talking about an event that is only 5 days away.    Time to get on board! 

Man as soon as I hopped on board last time about 4 days out things went to sh*t then came back around for something decent. I have too many bad memories of January 2020 and other events falling apart. Im gonna wait a bit and not get my hopes up but hard to deny there’s some strong model consensus not that far into the future. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Man as soon as I hopped on board last time about 4 days out things went to sh*t then came back around for something decent. I have too many bad memories of January 2020 and other events falling apart. Im gonna wait a bit and not get my hopes up but hard to deny there’s some strong model consensus not that far into the future. 

Think 12/26/21.

[Kayla]

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

Their forecast seems to have the same uncertainty as ours in the Portland region.  This makes me hesitant to jump in yet. 

Around 40% of ensemble guidance keeps the
shortwave ridge close enough to the region to maintain dry weather,
keep valleys cool while mountain and coastal locations likely
experience more moderated temperatures next weekend. Around 20% of
ensemble guidance results in the bulk of the arctic air sliding east
of the Continental Divide while maintaining dry weather across the
region.

Yeah I just find it funny that there is not even a single mention of an Arctic airmass descending upon the area. They are typically very ho-hum in their discussions so I suppose it's not too surprising. 

[Requiem]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The consistency of the EPS has me on board.    Additionally... every model seems to be trending colder and we are talking about an event that is only 5 days away.    Time to get on board! 

Definitely been burned more than a few times in the past few years so I'm skeptical-- nice at least that things are trending colder in a relatively short time frame. 

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Think 12/26/21.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like the December 2021 event…but just maybe a shorter duration not a 10 day event like that one was. I’d almost prefer if this window of opportunity was a few days later so it lined up with Christmas better but I’ll take any snow event no matter when it is…IF it happens. 

[Prairiedog]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Yeah I just find it funny that there is not even a single mention of an Arctic airmass descending upon the area. They are typically very ho-hum in their discussions so I suppose it's not too surprising. 

Especially for our area even the NWS gets excited in their explanations when there's even a chance for an arctic outbreak and I don't see that right now.  I know they tend to be pretty cautious but that's more when snow is involved as opposed to cold.  Their morning AFD was pretty mundane.  Either they really are uncertain what's going to happen or its their subliminal message it isn't going to happen and they just can't quite come to say it yet.  I hate this game sometimes.  When does spring training start?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Get ready for devastating trendz on the 12z. 

[RentonHill]

@Meatyorologistill be in office today let’s get some drinks to celebrate the 6z (and likely 12z). That will absolutely lock things in

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like the December 2021 event…but just maybe a shorter duration not a 10 day event like that one was. I’d almost prefer if this window of opportunity was a few days later so it lined up with Christmas better but I’ll take any snow event no matter when it is…IF it happens. 

These events always have surprises, could still be longer duration. Or shorter. 

[Guest administrator]

Winding up the Trebuchet of Banning for the following folks:

- “It’s too cold for snow”

- “It shows rain next week, so let’s focus on that”

- “The modeled event is too long/cold/snowy for my tastes”

- “It will still all slide East”

- “I lived where there was real winter and I just don’t understand the hype, so here are seventeen posts on why”

[TacomaWx]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

These events always have surprises, could still be longer duration. Or shorter. 

Just my guess of what a best case scenario would look like. No idea what’ll actually happen. Cautious optimism we’ve seen many times how quick the models can change. 

[Blizzard777]

50 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Definitely been burned more than a few times in the past few years so I'm skeptical-- nice at least that things are trending colder in a relatively short time frame. 

Agree, we’ve all watched the cold air get snagged up and delayed…. then it slips east.  Sad reality but once in a while it happens so we will hold onto that hope!