PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1064!

[Nov1985]

Not quite as good as the 6z but at least it's getting the general idea. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

Not quite as good as the 6z but at least it's getting the general idea. 

More snow less upper cold right

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

Not quite as good as the 6z but at least it's getting the general idea. 

Looks like an overrunning event brewing for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

More snow less upper cold right

This run at face value would probably actually be colder because there isn't  a bunch of Pacific air flooding in by Wednesday.

Edited December 12, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[ShawniganLake]

Gem looks pretty similar. Perhaps a little more overwater trajectory but both look like they are going to undercut pretty quickly. 

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

More snow less upper cold right

Yeah, I prefer a stalled ULL first, then bring the over running surface low just before xmas please!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Not quite as good as the 6z but at least it's getting the general idea. 

Always nice to see cold air flowing out across the central/northern BC coast then looping back east.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Coldest temp output in BC i can remember. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM gets cold and looks like it will do the overrunning thing at the end. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gem looks pretty similar. Perhaps a little more overwater trajectory but both look like they are going to undercut pretty quickly. 

Suppressed jet, 950 MB low crashing into Brookings for the win!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is a -44 in N. WA. Probably by Snowmizer's cabin. 

[Nov1985]

Lots of potential. Going to be a fun week model watching. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is a -44 in N. WA. Probably by Snowmizer's cabin. 

That is almost dead on where it is lol. Just to the left of that county line where the blue is is. 3 miles south of canada. Between the -22 and -24.

Edited December 12, 2022 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM gets cold and looks like it will do the overrunning thing at the end. 

That arctic high kind of holds it ground and shreds that incoming storm apart. 

[AlTahoe]

I got my power back! It was 10F this morning and the house was pretty chilly. 

[Nov1985]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

That arctic high kind of holds it ground and shreds that incoming storm apart. 

Wow it does. 

[Terreboner]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

Mr. Kuchera always loves giving Central OR the middle finger.

[Guest administrator]

36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's one of the better ways to screw with my plans tomorrow (and guarantee a dud of a 00z tonight!)

I'll see if I have anything going on after work today. Anyone else thinking of joining?

I’ll be in the office on Thursday. Drinks at 4?

[Nov1985]

12z on the left

[Terreboner]

I do know if that verifies, Crown Point might fly away and land in Astoria.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Nov1985 said:

12z on the left

Wonderful trend. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I got my power back! It was 10F this morning and the house was pretty chilly. 

How much snow are you up to for the winter now?

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

IDK if that Spokane temp will verify...

Da Feck?  lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Da Feck?  lol

I think it dropped to -37 the next frame. LOL

[Phishy Wx]

ie. lol that would be an all time record for Spokane,  -30 is the current, way back when before our current climate scenario 

[Nov1985]

Roughly similar timing to retreat 850Ts. Tuesday evening on the ECMWF, late Tues night on the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My guess is this airmass as modeled would NOT deliver highs in the mid-teens to the Western valleys... Just an FYI. Sub freezing highs would be likely however. 

[Kayla]

Hello 1983! Always wanted to experience the 80's!

Bozeman pulled a -20F/-32F on the 24th with that one. 6th coldest day on record. Seems plausible with this airmass and the lowest sun angles of the year once again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Nov1985 said:

Roughly similar timing to retreat 850Ts. Tuesday evening on the ECMWF, late Tues night on the GFS.

With all that cold air east side and offshore flow, the surface would remain very very cold. 

[Terreboner]

Looks like snowfall totals for yesterday haven't been logged yet.  I'd be amazed if we didn't get at least 12" official.

[AlTahoe]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How much snow are you up to for the winter now?

80" so far. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM gets cold and looks like it will do the overrunning thing at the end. 

12Z GEM also looks much snowier than its 00Z run.    WB maps are not caught up yet so viewing on Tropical Tidbits. 

[Nov1985]

After the arctic front on Sunday, there is a ULL that goes inland around Skagway north. I'd rather bring that off the Olympic peninsula in future runs. 

[Doinko]

11 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

Roughly similar timing to retreat 850Ts. Tuesday evening on the ECMWF, late Tues night on the GFS.

12z GFS is much better in my opinion. Cold gorge wind for us in Portland too and deeper cold air in the Basin

[Nov1985]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Da Feck?  lol

 either way you slice it.

 

[Kayla]

12z GEFS further west again. Don't really need it to trend any further west at this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Kayla said:

12z GEFS further west again. Don't want it to trend any further west at this point.

Haha don't even say it.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GEFS further west again. Don't really need it to trend any further west at this point.

Fred!!!!!!