Tom Posted August 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 CPC's take on August... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues The GFS has 2m temps in the upper 40s and lower 50s here on Thursday as the storm deepens. I'm rooting for it. Not sure what the lowest high temp is for August but this would have to be up there among the lowest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues Bud, did Schnack get rid of the chat on his blog? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I wouldn't put much stock in GFS temperature forecasts. It recently advertised temps of up to 126 degrees in central California. Seems the new GFS has some issues It's not just the GFS showing the unusually cold temps. The Canadian, NAM and several other cams are also showing 2m temps in the 50s. Forecasted high on Thurs is 61 here. Pretty impressive for the 'dog days of summer'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 DMX has upper 60s far N IA so i could see it struggling to reach 60 in the defo zone. Rather intriguing storm system for early Aug. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Welcome to August! Last month of met Summer. We're losing daylight everyday. Looking forward to bonfire season! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 One of the Augusts with cold temps in SMI was 1982. And in typical fashion, it was really chilly that autumn, kinda the "darkest before the dawn", "coldest before the heat" syndrome going on. Ofc, that was looking like a frigid winter might be in store, but instead lead to the Super-Nino of 82/83. Premature (ultra cold) autumns can be legit tell-tales of winter to come, or they can be a "head fake" like in '82, and again in '97 for SMI. Some of the nice autumns have led to great winters, so I'm not keen on the premature cold pattern myself. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 In looking back at July 2017. At Grand Rapids we ended July with the mean temperature right at average! There was only one day of 90° or better and only 10 days of 85° or better, But it was rather dry as only 1.12” of rain fell at the airport. This was the driest July at Grand Rapids since 1976 when Grand Rapids only received 0.81” of rain 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 A tale of 2 seasons...Thursday will feature a summery day with warm/humid conditions... By Friday afternoon, it will feel like Autumn with a blustery NNW wind flow and cloudy conditions with temps struggling to get out of the 60's! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 LNK finished the month of July with a mean temperature of 78.8, which is 1.2 above the normal July mean of 77.6. July 2017 was the seventh consecutive month at LNK with an above normal mean temperature. The lowest recorded temperature was 57 on July 1, and the warmest was 100 on July 21. The warmest minimum temperature occurred on July 21, at 79 degrees. The coldest max temperature occurred on July 30, at 81. 5.99" of rain fell, which is 2.59" above the average July precipitation amount of 3.40". A good majority of those 5.99" inches fell on July 26, when 2.83" of rain was recorded. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Did the storm come south with the latest NAM? DMX said it was the furthest north with their morning disco. That would bring the cool defo area further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Interesting correlations evolving in the changes from today's 12z runs as they are getting colder due to the active W PAC. Could the East Asian Theory aid this??? I'd like to see this continue into the Autumn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 First sneak peak into the month of Sept and the CFSv2 is developing a pocket of colder waters just N of Hawaii. It would be ideal if this were to continue into Oct when the new cycling pattern develops. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20170801.201709.gif Meanwhile, today's 12z Euro run is showing a 2nd reinforcing cold shot down the spine of the Rockies into the center of the nation Day 8-10. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 This is a really encouraging pattern going into a solar minimum. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Maps are courtesy to Ryan Maue; looks like the Arctic is heading into Autumn ahead of schedule with pretty substantial snowfall over the next 10 days. Western Russia see's more Summer time snow as well??? Wait a sec, this shouldn't be happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 1, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Maps are courtesy to Ryan Maue; looks like the Arctic is heading into Autumn ahead of schedule with pretty substantial snowfall over the next 10 days. Western Russia see's more Summer time snow as well??? Wait a sec, this shouldn't be happening. To add to this post, here is the current ice/snow map... http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif 12z Euro Day 6-10 temp...Dang! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The all-time record low maximum in August at MSP is 54F. We aren't in danger of that, but the if we only hit the forecasted high of 61 that really is quite remarkable. MPX saying through the second week of August we may have more 60s than 80s for highs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 DMX:Wednesday Night into Friday...Upper level trough and associatedvort max pushes across the state overnight Wednesday night intoThursday ahead of the deepening surface low over eastern SouthDakota. The trailing cold front looks to push through the CWAduring the day Thursday and much of the area will likely see earlymaximum temperatures. Although not entirely confident to mention acomplete non-diurnal temp trend due to the time of year, but forareas across the west and north, temperatures are likely to remainfairly steady throughout the day Thursday. Decent PVA couplet andtropopause fold, for this time of year, cut across the stateThursday afternoon into the evening. Winds atop the mixed rangefrom 35 to 40 knots over central to northern Iowa during theaforementioned time frame and thus confident to raise winds/gusts3-6 knots across the forecast area Thursday into Friday. Thismight even be too low across the north. The surface pressuregradient finally begins to weaken towards the afternoon Fridayfrom west to east and thus at least Friday morning remains fairlybreezy. Lowered temperatures Thursday night and again on Fridaywith the fair amount of CAASaturday into Monday...another upper level trough bringsadditional rain chances on Sunday into Sunday night. Althoughthe latest ECMWF is much quicker in pushing this shortwave southof the state Sunday. Still some questions on timing ofprecipitation late in the weekend. Much cooler temperatures remainacross the CWA through next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Miller from OAX has been emphasizing the fact that temperatures will remain below normal for the forseeable future. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 It's rare to see such a strong Aleutian Low in the summer. Ultimately, it will amplify the NW NAMER ridge and set up a long term long wave trough over the heart of the central CONUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Hey NE Peeps, ready for some 40's??? 06z NAM 3km is showing the SLP to pivot right over MSP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 North Dakota getting much needed rain this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Bud, did Schnack get rid of the chat on his blog? The chat app was killed by its owners. Schnack told me they were exploring other options, but, given the amount of time that has passed, I'm assuming there won't be any replacement. I wish SWJohnson knew about this forum so we could continue to communicate. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 12z GFS...another repeat PAC wave skirting the Rockies and developing into a rather interesting autumn-like system??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 12z GFS...another repeat PAC wave skirting the Rockies and developing into a rather interesting autumn-like system??? Perfect track....if it was Dec thru Mar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 The chat app was killed by its owners. Schnack told me they were exploring other options, but, given the amount of time that has passed, I'm assuming there won't be any replacement. I wish SWJohnson knew about this forum so we could continue to communicate.Bummer. Was always fun when tracking storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet.Most of the activity will be to the West in Central Nebraska, with more isolated chances closer to the Missouri River. Thus the drop. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 WTH? Woke up this morning to an 80% chance of much needed rain overnight(we're almost 4" below normal since June), and now it's down to 40%. Kind of odd considering the actual forecast update/discussion for this afternoon hasn't come out yet. ..welcome to my June Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Bummer. Was always fun when tracking storms.i know it sucks. Maybe someday he'll figure out something new. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 12z Euro 6-10 Day temp mean...Autumn "feel" anyone??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 3, 2017 Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Looks like this storm is coming in a tad farther south than earlier models depicted. Noticeable shift south with the defo band. Looks like 2-3" is quite likely in spots. Quite the autumn-like long duration soaker in the works. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Accuweather's first stab at their Autumn outlook...Temperatures to bounce up and down in Midwest, northern PlainsTemperatures are predicted to fluctuate up and down throughout fall, as mild days are interspersed with cooler air.“You may be mild for a period, and the next week you could be cooled down for a week. I think that’s the kind of flavor that we’re looking at in the fall coming up,” Pastelok said.This year, however, forecasters are predicting a bit of early-season snow, arriving as soon as October.“It’s always a tough call when you’re going to see that first snowfall in places like Chicago and Des Moines and St. Louis,” Pastelok said.“Now, this fall may not be off that far from normal, but keep in mind it’s been very difficult to get cold weather in these places over the last several [fall seasons].”A few bouts of winter weather are also in the offing during November, he said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Woah, WRF suggesting temps in the low 40's in IA tonight??? . Upper 30's Fri night in the Northwoods??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Besides today's warmth/humidity, this 7-day look like a mid-Sept forecast...great sleeping weather this weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 3, 2017 Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Looks like this storm is coming in a tad farther south than earlier models depicted. Noticeable shift south with the defo band. Looks like 2-3" is quite likely in spots. Quite the autumn-like long duration soaker in the works. Yeah, and Gale Watch on Lk Michigan on Aug 3rd is about a month early. Can't remember the last time that a long-duration gale event was seen before Labor Day. That's the traditional time-frame for 'em. And even then, mostly the north half of the lake. Southern half more-so late Sept. Ofc, Pastelok's outlook pretty much covered the bases with a map that looks like a duplicate of this summer's pattern, and some verbage that says nothing unusual. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 3, 2017 Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Already hit our high for the day. Temp already down to 56F with heavy rain and some thunder. Hello October! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 Yeah, and Gale Watch on Lk Michigan on Aug 3rd is about a month early. Can't remember the last time that a long-duration gale event was seen before Labor Day. That's the traditional time-frame for 'em. And even then, mostly the north half of the lake. Southern half more-so late Sept. Ofc, Pastelok's outlook pretty much covered the bases with a map that looks like a duplicate of this summer's pattern, and some verbage that says nothing unusual. Add to that, Water Spout season may kick off a bit early as well in southern LM. We don't usually see them till some time in Sept. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted August 3, 2017 12z NAM 3km indicating lake enhanced showers off of LM tomorrow afternoon and cool 850's that may spark some water spouts.... 850's will be a few degrees above freezing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.