September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

@Thunder98

 

Did ya break some more records?

For severe threat whiffs? Yep I sure did! At least you got hit!

[james1976]

Might not mean anything, but last week I heard several flocks of geese which I found odd. Don't they usually fly south later this month or Oct? Thought it was peculiar.

Everything seems early this year. I heard locust earlier than usual and leaves were turning and changing sooner than normal...although may have been due to the dry weather.

[james1976]

Line of showers and gusty winds blowing through right now! And i just put food on the grill lol. Wasnt expecting that. Oh well....its nice. Mid 60s now.

[jaster220]

I'm not the model hound some of u guys are, but supposedly free Euro maps can be found here:

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/724-w-263-n/geopotential-height-500hpa/20170907-1200z.html

[james1976]

Down to 61 now. That colder air lagging behind the front is arriving. All the smoke is gone too.

[jaster220]

Florida Governor not taking any chances with Irma..declares state of emergency!

 

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/04/florida-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-over-hurricane-irma/

 

 

It's been noted that Harvey was strengthening at LF, and conditions are ripe for Irma to do likewise! Not good

[Niko]

I'm sure it will change a hundred times but sounds like via that post it was a map for posterity

 

Edit: found it! Clocking Niko's place ofc

 

 

Seriously, you've got a bad feeling bout Irma, but I've got a bad feeling that this Summer's pattern of "just missing" will continue into next winter. Remember, '76-77 was cold but dry for SMI but Lk Erie froze over early and had 3 ft of snow on top of the ice when the bliz hit Buffalo. That could only have come from synoptic not LES so that tells me the mean track was just to my south as I've been talking about.

 

gfs_mslp_wind_us_37.png

Man, what a great position!

[Niko]

Irma nearing Cat5. @140mph currently.

[jaster220]

Irma nearing Cat5. @140mph currently.

Not really. 156+ mph is CAT-5

[Niko]

Not really. 156+ mph is CAT-5

Let me rephrase into more simpler terms.........Irma will be possibly approaching Cat5.  It is now, currently at sustain winds at 140mph.

 

Yes...Cat5 is categorize as you projected. Good job!

[james1976]

6z GFS has Irma direct hit on Miami and then rides up FL coast and into the Carolinas. Not looking good!

Also of note.....GFS trying to drop in a system with cold air thru the midwest around the 15th.

[Tom]

6z GFS has Irma direct hit on Miami and then rides up FL coast and into the Carolinas. Not looking good!

Also of note.....GFS trying to drop in a system with cold air thru the midwest around the 15th.

Using the Bearing Sea Rule, I'm expecting to see a big trough roll through around the 20th of the month...give or take a couple days.

 

Holy crap...Irma is a Cat 5 with 175mph winds!

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 weeklies seeing a large area of below normal temps around that time period of the 20th...during this period, we should start to see an uptick in moisture as the new CPH pattern begins to take shape in the northern latitudes by the end of this Week 3 period.

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20170904.NA.gif

[Tom]

That was a weird looking sky for a while late this morning. Had the smoke and a thin layer of clouds in the mid layers so you could see the red colored sun through the clouds and the air was a weird grayish to yellowish color at times. Almost reminded me of how things looked weird right before totality during the eclipse. I got out my video camera and used the zoom on it and you could see a couple of big sun spots. Couldn't smell any smoke though. The clouds cleared and now the sun is just a tint of orangish red with the smoke still up in the atmosphere

This is about as active as I've seen the sun in many years...tbh, I'm really surprised how many sunspots there are on the sun today...

 

 

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2017/05sep17/hmi200.gif

[Minny_Weather]

CFSv2 weeklies seeing a large area of below normal temps around that time period of the 20th...during this period, we should start to see an uptick in moisture as the new CPH pattern begins to take shape in the northern latitudes by the end of this Week 3 period.

I was quietly looking at that time period yesterday too, as the Euro weeklies also picked up on it. Awesome cold air coming from Alaska which could bring many areas in the Northern Plains/MN/WI (or even further South?) their first freeze in the Sept 20-25 timeframe. Also maybe measurable snow to the Plains areas in Canada to end the month (AB, SK, MN). I am usually very skeptical to Euro weeklies, but they have done shockingly well the past few weeks. If it's right, we may see an uptick in severe weather here in Nebraska to start off October too. There normally is one last severe weather push here in October.

[Niko]

Dangerous Hurricane out there. Was watching TWC just now and most of the staff is gone . They are probably off to some of the places that will get hit hard by Irma to start reporting.  Lets see how long Irma will remain  a CAT5.

[Niko]

Feels muggy currently even with the CF passage. Temps in the low 60s with a haze out there. Currently under a trough.

[OKwx2k4]

Using the Bearing Sea Rule, I'm expecting to see a big trough roll through around the 20th of the month...give or take a couple days.

 

Holy crap...Irma is a Cat 5 with 175mph winds!

 

 

It has tied Andrew at max of 175 mph.

[jaster220]

 

Holy crap...Irma is a Cat 5 with 175mph winds!

 

Wowza! Explosive storm Irma! 215 mph gusts - good Lord that's krazy stuff!  Yesterday I was just playin with Niko a bit on his post, but ends up his post verified LOL! Have to be concerned for those areas in the path - all of 'em

[Niko]

Wowza! Explosive storm Irma! 215 mph gusts - good Lord that's krazy stuff!  Yesterday I was just playin with Niko a bit on his post, but ends up his post verified LOL! Have to be concerned for those areas in the path - all of 'em

[jaster220]

It has tied Andrew at max of 175 mph.

 

I saw that Andrew only got down to 922 mb, but I think it was when he was much closer to FL. Irma just getting into the hot-tub waters with no lack of fuel and nearly ideal atmospheric conditions. Looks like JB's and Tom's concerns will come to fruition. Sadly, Irma could be the super-cane long feared by those insisting global warming would lead to such storms.

[Niko]

Looks like Jamaica will get spare. Irma should remain to the north of them. Maybe some wave action.

[OKwx2k4]

I saw that Andrew only got down to 922 mb, but I think it was when he was much closer to FL. Irma just getting into the hot-tub waters with no lack of fuel and nearly ideal atmospheric conditions. Looks like JB's and Tom's concerns will come to fruition. Sadly, Irma could be the super-cane long feared by those insisting global warming would lead to such storms.

Yeah. That's why I was so concerned about it to begin with. Models had been overdoing troughs like crazy and there was no reason to think it could get pushed out at all.

 

There were 2 landfalling majors in 1915 (before "global warming") but people don't look at truths like that.

[Niko]

Irma has the potential for further strengthening. Anyone in its path should take action ASAP!!!!!!

[james1976]

Didnt Katrina hit sustained 200mph at one point?

[Thunder98]

Green Bay, WI looks very comfortable for the Packers vs Seahawks kickoff game on Sunday, A forecast high of 70F.

 

[Thunder98]

Didnt Katrina hit sustained 200mph at one point?

 

No

[Jaycee]

Irma has the potential for further strengthening. Anyone in its path should take action ASAP!!!!!!

 

 

I don't know how accurate some of these maps are, but this is should scare every single person right now. The lowest pressure ever recorded was 870 mb. This shatters that. I know this is one model, but my god, this thing could pack winds that no one has ever seen in history if it were to pan out. I hope everyone takes action, Florida is the flattest state out there, nothing to stop these monstrous winds from ripping houses, buildings, you name it. I hope this graphic is inaccurate for the sake of our citizens down there. Wow.

 

 

[Niko]

I don't know how accurate some of these maps are, but this is should scare every single person right now. The lowest pressure ever recorded was 870 mb. This shatters that. I know this is one model, but my god, this thing could pack winds that no one has ever seen in history if it were to pan out. I hope everyone takes action, Florida is the flattest state out there, nothing to stop these monstrous winds from ripping houses, buildings, you name it. I hope this graphic is inaccurate for the sake of our citizens down there. Wow.

 

 

irma.png

Holy crap! Monster storm.

[Niko]

Green Bay, WI looks very comfortable for the Packers vs Seahawks kickoff game on Sunday, A forecast high of 70F.

 

greenbaywiforecast2.PNG

That is great weather and comfortable temps for playing sports outside.

[Niko]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and
visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible
satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several
mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not
sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were
measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force
plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak
SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.
Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this
advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic
basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC
records.

[Tom]

I don't know how accurate some of these maps are, but this is should scare every single person right now. The lowest pressure ever recorded was 870 mb. This shatters that. I know this is one model, but my god, this thing could pack winds that no one has ever seen in history if it were to pan out. I hope everyone takes action, Florida is the flattest state out there, nothing to stop these monstrous winds from ripping houses, buildings, you name it. I hope this graphic is inaccurate for the sake of our citizens down there. Wow.

 

 

irma.png

If this storms takes a track west of FL near the coastline it'll be what Jaster mentioned as a worst case scenario. There goes my brothers vaca plans near St Petersburg. They leave on Thursday.

[jaster220]

Yeah. That's why I was so concerned about it to begin with. Models had been overdoing troughs like crazy and there was no reason to think it could get pushed out at all.

 

There were 2 landfalling majors in 1915 (before "global warming") but people don't look at truths like that.

 

And, Irma's potential impacts have been compared with the 1926 and 1928 Cat-4 canes that hit the SE region of FL. Amazing that area got slammed twice in 3 yrs. What if that happened with today's pop??

 

If this storms takes a track west of FL near the coastline it'll be what Jaster mentioned as a worst case scenario. There goes my brothers vaca plans near St Petersburg. They leave on Thursday.

 

Actually, I meant it would be the better scenario if the core winds stayed just off-shore and it made LF in that sparsely populated swampy region north of Clearwater (the bend region). As it is, both coasts need to keep a wary eye out with models flipping back and forth on which side it rides up. Quite the majestic monster it became overnight:

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

I don't know how accurate some of these maps are, but this is should scare every single person right now. The lowest pressure ever recorded was 870 mb. This shatters that. I know this is one model, but my god, this thing could pack winds that no one has ever seen in history if it were to pan out. I hope everyone takes action, Florida is the flattest state out there, nothing to stop these monstrous winds from ripping houses, buildings, you name it. I hope this graphic is inaccurate for the sake of our citizens down there. Wow.

 

 

irma.png

 

In the case of the HMON, not at all due to being "uncoupled from the ocean" in the Atlantic basin. Thus, it gives out some ridiculous strengthening via a false feedback component. Nonetheless, the more accurate models are scary enough without the runaway train effects of a couple models.

[jaster220]

I saw that Andrew only got down to 922 mb, but I think it was when he was much closer to FL. Irma just getting into the hot-tub waters with no lack of fuel and nearly ideal atmospheric conditions. Looks like JB's and Tom's concerns will come to fruition. Sadly, Irma could be the super-cane long feared by those insisting global warming would lead to such storms.

 

Let the records pile-up.

 

Irma's 1st:  "Atlantic basin - farthest east CAT-5 cane in recorded history"

 

And her 2nd as Niko posted:

 

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

 

Irma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and

visible satellite images. Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible

satellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several

mesovortices rotating within with eye. The aircraft have not

sampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were

measured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force

plane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily. A peak

SFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.

Based on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this

advisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic

basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC

records.

[jaster220]

Didnt Katrina hit sustained 200mph at one point?

 

For the record (and Irma may move up the list???):

 

 

[jaster220]

The HRWF is being viewed as a more realistic upper end outcome at hr126

 

Yikes!!

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

It's interesting how the NHC has this weakening to a cat 4 as it enters even warmer waters. This thing is a complete catastrophic event in the making. What a friggin beast of a buzzsaw. Scheduled to attend a conference in Miami in November. The city might not even be there if this thing stays on course.

[Stormgeek]

I am quite honestly at a loss of words. An already category 5, historic hurricane, is making its way through what seems to be bath water on a collision course with terrifying consequences. It is incredible to watch grow, but man have mercy on the souls in its path. Supposed to be attending a wedding in St. Pete in October.

[Niko]

The HRWF is being viewed as a more realistic upper end outcome at hr126

 

Yikes!!

 

20170905 hr126 HWRF of Irma.png

Monster of a storm. Anyone in its path, look-out!