Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[BMT]

It's always harder to not get excited when there's somewhat model consensus during a run too.  

[Chambana]

Not sure ultimately what Champaign gets, but I’ll go with 6-8” and winds cranking at 50-60mph. Sorta reminiscent to the Polar Vortex Blizzard of 1-6-14.

[OmahaSnowFan]

10”+ sounds better, plus it’s so rare around here, but I’m guessing 5-7” tops here despite the craziness that the GFS was showing.

[winterfreak]

This storm kind of reminds me of the insane post-Thanksgiving “blizzard” we had here 3 years ago. Quick moving with lots of wind and whiteout conditions. Couldn’t even see the houses across the street with that one. I think it dropped 4-6” if I’m remembering it right.

[Bellona]

I'm ok with this at 10:1

[tStacsh]

Will be some interesting AFD's this afternoon.  I will hold off on any excitement/disappointment until reading my office's write up later today.  

[jcwxguy]

something that we might see from back in 2012

[Bellona]

Just now, jcwxguy said:

something that we might see from back in 2012

Honestly could be pretty dang close!

[OmahaSnowFan]

4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

something that we might see from back in 2012

That’s bc systems cycle every 10 years

[bud2380]

Add the UK to the model list that is illustrating my biggest concerns here.  The lead wave stays to the north and west and then falls apart, leaving the much more progressive secondary wave as the only precip we get here.  If you take the qpf on the UKIE and apply 15:1 snow ratios that's 5.4" for Iowa City/CR area.  Which I guess is ok if you consider that's the lowest model output, but sadly I think that is probably going to end up closer to reality.  

[Hawkeye]

Ugh... the UK is junk for southeast Iowa and northern Illinois.

[winterfreak]

12z GFS mean cut snowfall in half. Ouch.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

What an absolutely filthy pressure gradient.

Love that look!!

4 hours ago, Jarod said:

I'm blaming you if this goes west of here. Then again, i have the rest of the year off of work after Tuesday, so maybe I should just temporarily relocate to where ever is supposed to be hit the hardest

Haha, but why? I have Friday off, and have a quasi-plan to chase west across the state but by then travel may just be too dicey and not worth the risk. 26-28th off so I could at least see whatever the results are then.

55 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Drops 20 in 6 hours over Michigan.  

Yeah, pretty funny in this Sub when there's a big let-down it is ALL about the Peeps west of Chicago.

[jaster220]

9 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Will be some interesting AFD's this afternoon.  I will hold off on any excitement/disappointment until reading my office's write up later today.  

Will not be shocked if GFS over-swung the pendulum in the end

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

12z GFS mean cut snowfall in half. Ouch.

So, you western Peeps crew can join us eastern Peeps in the post-mega runs that vanished therapy session, lol

[bud2380]

As mentioned, huge change on the GEFS mean.

 

[tStacsh]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Will not be shocked if GFS over-swung the pendulum in the end

It's almost go-time range for the models.  The king is up next.  Will see if it wavers.  Sucks that you're probably out of this.  But seems par for the course.   If that low tracks overhead.  I'll be disappointed.   The wrap around will be nice!.  But I'd like to stay on the west side of this.   Still too far out to have anything locked in that's for sure.  

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I hate seeing the Euro trending east, with a delayed blow-up.  That makes it difficult to buy the GFS.

Not saying it ain't so but it did the same thing last time remember. Could the models be having the same problem again this time?

[Bellona]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

As mentioned, huge change on the GEFS mean.

 

I'd still take that, even at 10:1 lol

[indianajohn]

well what a difference 24 hours makes LOL.... should be an interesting day to say the least.  

[winterfreak]

Much rather be in Iowa than here. Most of you guys are locked in for at least a moderate event.

[mlgamer]

If I remember correctly, the models had already locked in the recent northern plains blizzard by now. As usual, a storm further south (in my area) still has a variety of ever evolving solutions.

[Jack_GradStudent]

Definitely do not like this trend I'm seeing in the GEFS for the Kansas/Missouri area.. Last night I said I wish I was seeing these kind of runs on Wednesday rather than Sunday.. also mentioned that GFS run had to be considered an anamoly and this kind of trend is exactly why. GEFS shows a system that isn't diving nearly southwest as we want it at least in the central part of the U.S. I highlighted the vorticity maximums in the latest GEFS run and last nights 0z run.. drastic differences. I think anything above 2 inches in is KC suspect. Hoping to see a trend back further SW soon. 

[Bryan1117]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Got a bad case of the flu so it's been a slow morning here. Just now catching up on the models. Looks like FSD is in the 6-10 range currently but that is balancing perilously close to boom/bust potential. 

A Wind Chill Watch has been posted for Wednesday PM - Saturday AM for wind chills as cold as 50 below zero. NWS FSD morning AFD mentioned blizzard-like conditions so wouldn't be surprised to see that hoisted at some point over the next 24 hours if model solutions hold.

Big Euro run coming up.

Went through that last week man, so get lots of rest and drink lots of fluids. It hit me pretty hard for three days early last week - I am glad that I was able to do some work from home.

Fingers crossed that the Euro comes through for us. 

[Bumblin Bman09]

I dont post much but find all of your analysis' of the system great.  I am sitting in N IL near the Wisconsin border and cautiously optimistic of a decent amount of snow.  We haven't had a solid base for Christmas in quite some time.  

I am also travelling from Eastern Indiana back to Chicago area on Thursday AM.  I hope it holds off until Thurs PM

[winterfreak]

7 minutes ago, Jack_GradStudent said:

Definitely do not like this trend I'm seeing in the GEFS for the Kansas/Missouri area.. Last night I said I wish I was seeing these kind of runs on Wednesday rather than Sunday.. also mentioned that GFS run had to be considered an anamoly and this kind of trend is exactly why. GEFS shows a system that isn't diving nearly southwest as we want it at least in the central part of the U.S. I highlighted the vorticity maximums in the latest GEFS run and last nights 0z run.. drastic differences. I think anything above 2 inches in is KC suspect. Hoping to see a trend back further SW soon. 

Anything above 2”? Depressing.

[Hoosier]

Hasn't really been talked about for the obvious reason of being a minor detail, but there should be a zone of some decent rain (0.25-0.50") of which some will flash freeze that also gets blitzed with a ton of snow. In this area, that zone could be Chicago, me, or somebody a bit east.   

[Ottawa CO, MI]

50 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Will be some interesting AFD's this afternoon.  I will hold off on any excitement/disappointment until reading my office's write up later today.  

  Their forecast of the snowfall last weekend was WAY off....they had my area to get 3-5 inches total, we got 17. They are due to get one right...

[Bellona]

Here it comes!  everyone!

[indianajohn]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Hasn't really been talked about for the obvious reason of being a minor detail, but there should be a zone of some decent rain (0.25-0.50") of which some will flash freeze that also gets blitzed with a ton of snow. In this area, that zone could be Chicago, me, or somebody a bit east.   

can we see a repeat of march 1998 in northwest indiana where it rained follow by freezing temps and around 8"-10" of heavy snow.... I it  remember shutting down the area for a couple of days. No power and roads impassible 

 

[Stacsh]

3 minutes ago, Ottawa CO, MI said:

  Their forecast of the snowfall last weekend was WAY off....they had my area to get 3-5 inches total, we got 17. They are due to get one right...

Lake effect is always underdone and nearly impossible to predict.   

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

can we see a repeat of march 1998 in northwest indiana where it rained follow by freezing temps and around 8"-10" of heavy snow.... I it  remember shutting down the area for a couple of days. No power and roads impassible 

 

Not as much of the snow with this storm will be wet.  Maybe just early on.  

But overall impacts could be as bad (or worse) than the 1998 storm.

[bud2380]

Tweet from DVN

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Bellona said:

I think we all say, "don't live and die by a single run." It's hard not to though. Especially for people like us who start talking about a possible storm 10 days out before 95% of the world even has an idea something could be coming. I feel pretty good where I sit in Waterloo. 6+ should be achievable. I'd love the 2 feet, but....

Yep. Have my customer here today from Kzoo. Asked him if he was "ready 2b buried"?? He looked at me like "what are you talking about??" Said he gets his wx by looking out the front window.

[Hoosier]

Not saying it will happen, but it's entirely plausible that we see things start to tick toward a bigger/slightly west outcome as it gets closer.  But also possible that doesn't happen or even bleeds east.  So basically, who knows for sure lol

Details on where/when the system occludes and just how deep it gets will likely be a model clusterf*ck for a while yet.

[jaster220]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Not saying it will happen, but it's entirely plausible that we see things start to tick toward a bigger/slightly west outcome as it gets closer.  But also possible that doesn't happen or even bleeds east.  So basically, who knows for sure lol

Details on where/when the system occludes and just how deep it gets will likely be a model clusterf*ck for a while yet.

Keeps it SOOOOO interesting. Like it should be

[indianajohn]

23 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Keeps it SOOOOO interesting. Like it should be

 

we tend to forget in the excitement  that for our parts to have a  massive snow storm things pretty much have to align perfectly......

[bud2380]

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Forgot about those graphs. Looks like FSD's falls fairly close to the mean and isn't as much of an outlier. Thanks for the reminder!

What website do you use to find that graph?

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not saying it will happen, but it's entirely plausible that we see things start to tick toward a bigger/slightly west outcome as it gets closer.  But also possible that doesn't happen or even bleeds east.  So basically, who knows for sure lol

Details on where/when the system occludes and just how deep it gets will likely be a model clusterf*ck for a while yet.

This looks to take a '99 path with perhaps the strength of '87, but continues to deepen moving off to our NE. Completely different pre-storm airmass for our region from '99. Don't remember the day of '87 as to temps, but in SEMI it warmed enough to be T-showers with vivid strikes in the am. When I left work in the pm it had flipped to snow and about 4" had fallen. This should be an interesting mix of those two, but '87 didn't have the arctic blast to work with, so this got more powder in the keg.

[Hoosier]

Just now, indianajohn said:

we tend to forget in the excitement  that for our parts to have a  massive snow storm things pretty much have to align perfectly......

What I'm very confident in is that this will be a standout storm for the month of December for our area.  We'll look back many years from now and remember it like Dec 2000 and... umm... what else has been very good in December for us?