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Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

bud2380

By bud2380
in East of the Rockies

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

 

Storms like these have surprises the models won't pick up on.   How quickly does it intensify?   20-30 miles on track either way  make a HUGE difference.  Lake effect/enhancement will happen until Saturday night.  Wind direction makes a difference.  If the wind isn't as strong, expect MORE LES on the west side.  This is a nowcast.   

Well, it deepens later than what globals we're showing 4 days ago. They had 980-ish SLP at NIN or SMI vs 992 in far SEMI. Gets to 970's around Georgian Bay. Should do the trick for you guys over there. Warm lake may help too.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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ToastedRavs
ToastedRavs

Bars closing early tonight in Valley Junction area of West Des Moines sadly. But did manage to get a quick video and a few pics. Roughly 4- to 4.5" on ground. So about 2 to 2.5" already so not a bad s

Hoosier
Hoosier

So how addicting is this stuff? I was at a function much of the day and snuck away to the bathroom to get a quick peek at the 18z GFS. Gonna be losing sleep this week no doubt.

CentralNebWeather
CentralNebWeather

8:45 pm. Blizzard conditions starting. Whoa.  IMG_0931.MOV    

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, StupidFlanders said:

Nice snowfall right now in Western Burbs of Chicago. Roads are slick. Wife and I finished shopping this am/afternoon just in time.

Same here!  Just got home from shopping and scenery couldn't get any better.  I'm enjoying this day time snowfall even though we didn't get the higher totals some got out west.  I'll be content if we manage to get 3" of powder and enjoy it for a few days during this cold spell.

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tom said:

The radar looks like its trying to really light up now over IN/MI...you guys are going to get some good rates.  Speaking of which, I just clicked over to GRR and low and behold....

 

image.png

You can see the Arctic front on radar moving in 9BB8138E-2163-494A-BF09-F135BD54656A.thumb.gif.33dd974266292060ff90a953c3ca3650.gif from the west a county over 

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Image

Be interested to see what this looks like Christmas morning for Santa - ha!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

Lol

They're an EC firm. They could care less about accuracy for our region. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Tom said:

The radar looks like its trying to really light up now over IN/MI...you guys are going to get some good rates.  Speaking of which, I just clicked over to GRR and low and behold....

 

image.png

DTX mentioned 1"/hr but not here in the S portion of the CWA. Still, it would be a nice surprise if that were to happen. I like heavy wet snow and it makes a base that will be less likely to blow away in tomorrow's windstorm. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

NAM says I'm a pro Met for calling "Low Party over mby" days ago 😁

namconus_ref_frzn_us_9.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

NAM has remained consistent. The last five cycles showing a mid to upr-970's mb SLP in Huron. In subsequent hours, it has increased the strength a bit, but due to amping later it is a tad further east when it gets down to 970 mb

10 am Friday (should be about as wintry feeling of a morning as you can get around these parts)

1652419084_22-12-2218znam_mslp_pcpn_frz-n_us_fh45-21.thumb.gif.1d11c7e4a618b6d3f68b919e9c6c7d73.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

NAM has remained consistent. The last five cycles showing a mid to upr-970's mb SLP in Huron. In subsequent hours, it has increased the strength a bit, but due to amping later it is a tad further east when it gets down to 970 mb

10 am Friday (should be about as wintry feeling of a morning as you can get around these parts)

1652419084_22-12-2218znam_mslp_pcpn_frz-n_us_fh45-21.thumb.gif.1d11c7e4a618b6d3f68b919e9c6c7d73.gif

First part called for 3-7”.  It’s almost over here already with an 2 inches  lol.  This is moving quick and east 

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted

15*. On its way to 9. 
Some forecasts say 6* but why split hairs? 😄

Wind 24 mph

It’ll be a cold start tomorrow.  I’ll be on my way to the Okla. border near Lake Texoma.  Where it’s 12*. Feels like -7.  
Wind gusts to 30mph. 

Good thing I still have my Swiss mountain coat.  It got me through some time on a glacier.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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westMJim Veteran

westMJim

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Front is on my doorstep.  Muskegon down to 24.  I sit at 32.  

I just took a snow fall measurement and I have 1.75" it is still snowing and here there is no wind but just to the west the wind picks up and the temperatures are in the 20's I have the same as you at 32. 

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted

Sad that this only turned into a wind/lake effect event.  Was looking forward to more on the front end.  Apparently there will be a big lull tonight on actual snowfall.   If the lake effect doesn’t materialize as a monster event this will be one bust of a forecast snow wise.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Sad that this only turned into a wind/lake effect event.  Was looking forward to more on the front end.  Apparently there will be a big lull tonight on actual snowfall.   If the lake effect doesn’t materialize as a monster event this will be one bust of a forecast snow wise.  

For sure NMI is in a much better LAT for the full effects. Seems like after days (if not weeks?) of anticipating a massive arctic invasion, by the time it is getting here, the E Asian Jet is hard on its heels and shoving it off quite quickly. Too progressive. We knew this would likely be a typical Nina roller coaster winter, but sheesh. 4 or 5 day dramatic plunges followed by 3 weeks of "meh" looks like the hand we're being dealt this winter. Getting extreme cold but not sustained cold/winter like other banner seasons. Oh well, its Christmas and if its White that will be huge in the end. Better now than a week ago and gone already.  

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Stacsh Rising Star

Stacsh

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

For sure NMI is in a much better LAT for the full effects. Seems like after days (if not weeks?) of anticipating a massive arctic invasion, by the time it is getting here, the E Asian Jet is hard on its heels and shoving it off quite quickly. Too progressive. We knew this would likely be a typical Nina roller coaster winter, but sheesh. 4 or 5 day dramatic plunges followed by 3 weeks of "meh" looks like the hand we're being dealt this winter. Getting extreme cold but not sustained cold/winter like other banner seasons. Oh well, its Christmas and if its White that will be huge in the end. Better now than a week ago and gone already.  

I’m happy to get it now.  And I’m glad it’s not a crippling Blizzard.  Even though it will still be nasty.  After New Years I’m obviously off winter.  I’ll be excited for snow storms.  But I’m over winter after the holidays.  Hopefully the up and downs continue and we get some good warm ups for the second half  of winter.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

This thread about to get real quiet 😆

Ikr. Even @Niko has gone away. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

APX 

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...Oh the Weather Outside is (about to be) Frightful...
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

Posted
Posted 
MSP NWS....Hopefully people will take this seriously. Offices have been putting out heavy wording all week for this event. 

KEY MESSAGES:

- Life threatening conditions will arrive with increasing winds,
  decreasing wind chills, and significantly reduced visibility
  overnight. Stranded travelers could be susceptible to hypothermia
  and frostbite within minutes.

- The worst conditions are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday
  morning, with gusts peaking at 45-50mph. Please do not travel.
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Andie Grand Master

Andie

Posted
Posted

Currently 9*

Wind an almost constant 24 mph.  
Wind chill -10

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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