Pre-Christmas Storm Plains/MW/GL 12/21-12/22

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Its about to get windy that's for sure.  Are you getting any flakes yet? 

Drip, drip, drip goes my qpf down the drain.. 

[Iceresistance]

Currently 3°F, afternoon temperature was only 6°F, which is a huge bust compared to the expected high of 17°F. 

 

Nearly got an inch of snow. 

[jaster220]

27 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Drip, drip, drip goes my qpf down the drain.. 

Bumping my rant call from last Sunday morning. I think it needs dusting off in light of last-minute trends. So far, even failed on the front end mix, lol 

Quote

Sunday 12/18 Final call for mby: Brief mix->+RN->dryslot->backside 1" of wind-swept plaster via tail-end scraps off Lk Mich. 

 

[jaster220]

Per a DTX SWS, the front side of this is basically down to "up to an inch of slop" for this part of SEMI anyways. Welcome to the new December, same as the old December. The low-end of our "Warning" is actually 2 freaking inches. You know what I'm gonna say next if that's all this delivers, lol

[WinterSquall23]

35 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Bumping my rant call from last Sunday morning. I think it needs dusting off in light of last-minute trends. So far, even failed on the front end mix, lol 

 

I concur.  This is not cool . My area is on a rain island surrounded by snow returns.  We had better storms last year !  
 

edit:  Right after I said that it switch to snow.  Will at  least get to some snow during the Christmas period which is pretty cool.  

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

That is so nasty! Reminds me of Jan '19 PV visit over SMI. And ofc Jan/Feb '94 in NMI

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

I concur.  This sucks!  My area is on a rain island surrounded by snow returns.  We had better storms last year ! 

Your sig says Milford, but your poster name is Ferndale Man. A bit confused. Looks like you're in Milford attm, eh?

[WinterSquall23]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Your sig says Milford, but your poster name is Ferndale Man. A bit confused. Looks like you're in Milford attm, eh?

Yeah, that was based off my old location in the NW .  So I am one of the Detroit metro crew that is going to take a break from this storm unless it turns around.  It’s been a roller coaster. 

[Stacsh]

This is going to be a huge bust 

[ChiTownSnow]

13 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

This is going to be a huge bust 

It was for EVERYONE.  Just at different levels of bust

[westMJim]

Just took a snow fall measurement and there is now around 3.5" of new snow on the ground here in MBY with a current temperature of 16 there is a NW wind it looks like the system snow has ended and there is some light lake effect snow falling but with a NW wind that is not a good wind direction for lake snow here at my location.

[Stacsh]

9 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

It was for EVERYONE.  Just at different levels of bust

True.  But they were talking 15-20”.  Not even close.  The models have dried up the lake effect

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Just took a snow fall measurement and there is now around 3.5" of new snow on the ground here in MBY with a current temperature of 16 there is a NW wind it looks like the system snow has ended and there is some light lake effect snow falling but with a NW wind that is not a good wind direction for lake snow here at my location.

Winds will come around. Congratulations on snow-on-snow event. RN here tho radar indicates SN. SO DTW

[jaster220]

Just now, Stacsh said:

True.  But they were talking 15-20”.  Not even close.  The models have dried up the lake effect

Those same models that gave everyone epic totals. They need re-calibrating for warm era, x2 for anything in the month of December. 

[jaster220]

Need cold that's coming to stay, like February 2015 after GHD-2, or Dec 2000, not this in-and-out stuff

[jaster220]

14 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

It was for EVERYONE.  Just at different levels of bust

I think almost all west rolled snake eyes with this with the possible exception of MSP. They obviously are just the right amount of N and W for this Nina

[Andie]

DFW area is at 8*.  
Wind chill -9

Wind @ 14mph NW

Had to go outside to check on a neighbor’s  house.  They’re in Sunny California, no less  Man, talk about a chilly late night stroll !  

 

[ChiTownSnow]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I think almost all west rolled snake eyes with this with the possible exception of MSP. They obviously are just the right amount of N and W for this Nina

Yeah MSP was the winner with this.  Who would have thought that 3 days ago

That part of the system didn't require so much finesse and everything going correctly

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Yeah MSP was the winner with this.  Who would have thought that 3 days ago

That part of the system didn't require so much finesse and everything going correctly

The Yoopers will still rake no doubt, they've got the latitude going for them besides the inland sea in the right orientation.

[Stacsh]

Until the winds change and snow actually falls.  Not sure if these 6” drifts will keep anyone from going anywhere tomorrow 

the Nam went from 10” 10:1.  To 4” 10:1.  
 

epic fail.   Sure the wind will create hazards and some LES will fall but blizzard?!?  I expect the warning to be dropped early. 

[Madtown]

interested to see how this is gonna go up here tomorrow night and Sat. still calling for 4-8" more

[tbone8]

It is really coming down here, darn near white out. Hard to tell how much has fallen, guess 4-6". Radar doesn't do justice to what is happening. Gonna start piling up if this rate continues...

[james1976]

4 hours ago, Madtown said:

17" on the table. I believe it's probable closer to 20-24" out in the open not in the woods. It's pretty freaking deep for Dec. Hopefully tack ob 6-8" more Frinday night-Sat!

That's amazing. I've cleared off my tables to try measuring current snowfalls but I have to be at 15 inches easily. It's deep here. I drove around town a bit today and it's an awesome sight. Snow piled up everywhere and a lot hanging on to trees yet (which looks like a postcard but ultimately is hard on the beautiful trees).

[Phil]

Been several years since we’ve dropped into the teens by midday following a morning high in the 40s.

Won’t be as bad here vs Ohio Valley thanks to downsloping off the mountains, but single digits with wind chills to -15°F seems likely tomorrow night.

Oh, and those pesky mountains will augment wind speeds for sure. Gonna be roaring by tomorrow AM.

 

[Phil]

Given the 1-2” of rain/ice that fell today, this could definitely bring down some weak wood.

Along/west of the BR in particular:

[Phil]

Lightning activity as this moves into WV.

Basically a severe storm but with snow (or rain changing to snow).

 

[SpaceRace22]

There are currently EIGHT states where the entirety of the state is below 0 degrees F at this moment. (North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri (wow), Illinois, and Indiana. 3 more states are incredibly close and very likely will join the list before the evening is over. Montana and Kansas both only have a couple tiny corners holding right around 1 or 2 degrees, and Wisconsin just has a few places out on the Door Peninsula sitting in the single digits.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, james1976 said:

That's amazing. I've cleared off my tables to try measuring current snowfalls but I have to be at 15 inches easily. It's deep here. I drove around town a bit today and it's an awesome sight. Snow piled up everywhere and a lot hanging on to trees yet (which looks like a postcard but ultimately is hard on the beautiful trees).

Isn't it just amazing how you can travel a few hundred miles north of Ames, IA and be treated so much more favorable winter weather conditions that have staying power???  You got it good now having a place to go up north in MSP to enjoy "real winter" weather.  Congrats and take some pics!

 

Meantime, drum roll please??  ORD officially had 1.9" from this event so pretty much a stat padder, but nonetheless, we will have a White Christmas!  The silver lining in all of this was that I managed to experience an epic Arctic Front with plunging temps and a daytime snowfall.  I guess you can say that is a win given the holiday season.  Glad to see the landscape is white and the grass is covered (although there are open spots from drifting).  It's brutal out there and I'll have to venture out and shovel but I'll wait till the morning hours....current temp of -8F is going to feel Brutal, esp coming from AZ weather.  Yikes!

 

[Tom]

I think we have one member over by Toronto/Quebec...both SLP's about to combine overhead...Bombs away! @kush61??

[westMJim]

 

Good morning!  To start off I have around 4” of new snow and now have 8” on the ground. The low for today so far and the current temperature here in MBY is +7. At this time light snow is falling but  the winds are not that bad here at this time, so no major drifting. I am sure with the cold that roads are snow covered as there is that 4” or so of snow on the road here in Good morning! To start off so far here in MBY I have 4” of new snow fall and there is now 8” on the front of my house. The NWS is holding to their forecast of a Blizzard warning.

Looking back at yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 34/15 there was 0.37” of precipitation and their report as of midnight was 3.8” of snow fall. There was 12% of sunshine yesterday. For today the average H/L is 34/27 the record high of 60 was recorded in 2015 the record low of -11 was set in 1989. The record snow fall of 5.9” was recorded in 2008. At the current time the snowstorm event is not all that far from a typical snow event in this area.

 

[Stacsh]

Travel was slow but totally fine this morning in this “blizzard”.  

[WinterSquall23]

Received a nice coating on of snow.  Watching the wind whip the snow into small blizzard like fashion I am thankful to see that most of the sub has a white Christmas coming up.  It’s 7 degrees with snow, and some wind to boot.  Looks like winter.  Enjoy all the insight people have on this subforum.  I have learned a lot about weather patterns, LRC, GFS , NAM.  Pretty cool stuff.  First year in SE MI we got 10 inches of snow.  So I know it’s possible.  It’s just cool to have 4 seasons in a year vs the NW where we have warm rain in the summer and cold rain in the winter. It’s cloudy most of the time in the Seattle area so peeps there dream of days like we are having right now.   Pretty impressive when Austin TX is in the mid teens That’s crazy cold.  Thanks and keep it up!  

[Madtown]

On 12/22/2022 at 4:58 AM, Tom said:

@james1976 @Madtown 

Up to 12-18 by tomorrow evening

..believe when I see it

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Received a nice coating on of snow.  Watching the wind whip the snow into small blizzard like fashion I am thankful to see that most of the sub has a white Christmas coming up.  It’s 7 degrees with snow, and some wind to boot.  Looks like winter.  Enjoy all the insight people have on this subforum.  I have learned a lot about weather patterns, LRC, GFS , NAM.  Pretty cool stuff.  First year in SE MI we got 10 inches of snow.  So I know it’s possible.  It’s just cool to have 4 seasons in a year vs the NW where we have warm rain in the summer and cold rain in the winter. It’s cloudy most of the time in the Seattle area so peeps there dream of days like we are having right now.   Pretty impressive when Austin TX is in the mid teens That’s crazy cold.  Thanks and keep it up!  

Enjoy it!  It’s nice hear your input on the weather coming from a vastly different region of the US.  I’m sure we will be busy on here into the New Year.

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Madtown said:

Up to 12-18 by tomorrow evening

..believe when I see it

#glacier

[jaster220]

39 minutes ago, Ferndale_man said:

Received a nice coating on of snow.  Watching the wind whip the snow into small blizzard like fashion I am thankful to see that most of the sub has a white Christmas coming up.  It’s 7 degrees with snow, and some wind to boot.  Looks like winter.  Enjoy all the insight people have on this subforum.  I have learned a lot about weather patterns, LRC, GFS , NAM.  Pretty cool stuff.  First year in SE MI we got 10 inches of snow.  So I know it’s possible.  It’s just cool to have 4 seasons in a year vs the NW where we have warm rain in the summer and cold rain in the winter. It’s cloudy most of the time in the Seattle area so peeps there dream of days like we are having right now.   Pretty impressive when Austin TX is in the mid teens That’s crazy cold.  Thanks and keep it up!  

Going to guess we/I got a bit less here in Canton (as per usual). Mostly grass blades. Wind gusts are indeed nasty and would've been a true storm with snow falling. ISO bars are oriented NW, Obs at DTW say winds are due W, but LES bands per NAM are progged to act more like WSW which takes most flakes just N of here. IF those even occur ofc. 

Next time we will need to pay more attention to the NAM. If it comes into range and like this time, does NOT continue the theme of amped snows, that's a huge RED FLAG that the globals are/were out to lunch. I'll say it again, models suck bigly now. They are over-tweaked to portray too much of a completed play, before the players have even taken the field. Just like the NWS offices slowly up POPS percentages as an event draws closer and confidence is increased, the models need to approach storm system outputs in that way. 

Backside snows RARELY work out no matter how big the system is. Jan '78 was a pretty rare exception but not really. beside an additional ~9" for LES belts in SWMI, the bulk of the snow was synoptic and happened while the SLP moved roughly due N. As shown in the WGN graphic, there was TSSN way the heck down in the lower OHV on the 25th which translated north on the west side of the SLP as it bombed up through OH into SEMI. 15 to 20 inches fell as all synoptic snow from a KIND to KLAN line, and a bit NE into NMI where LES piled-on and the lines get blurry between snow sources.

Bottom line. Models sucked and mis-led NWS offices toward scary scenarios. Kudos to @westMJim for taking a "wait and see" approach. Hats off! 

[Stacsh]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Going to guess we/I got a bit less here in Canton (as per usual). Mostly grass blades. Wind gusts are indeed nasty and would've been a true storm with snow falling. ISO bars are oriented NW, Obs at DTW say winds are due W, but LES bands per NAM are progged to act more like WSW which takes most flakes just N of here. IF those even occur ofc. 

Next time we will need to pay more attention to the NAM. If it comes into range and like this time, does NOT continue the theme of amped snows, that's a huge RED FLAG that the globals are/were out to lunch. I'll say it again, models suck bigly now. They are over-tweaked to portray too much of a completed play, before the players have even taken the field. Just like the NWS offices slowly up POPS percentages as an event draws closer and confidence is increased, the models need to approach storm system outputs in that way. 

Backside snows RARELY work out no matter how big the system is. Jan '78 was a pretty rare exception but not really. beside an additional ~9" for LES belts in SWMI, the bulk of the snow was synoptic and happened while the SLP moved roughly due N. As shown in the WGN graphic, there was TSSN way the heck down in the lower OHV on the 25th which translated north on the west side of the SLP as it bombed up through OH into SEMI. 15 to 20 inches fell as all synoptic snow from a KIND to KLAN line, and a bit NE into NMI where LES piled-on and the lines get blurry between snow sources.

Bottom line. Models sucked and mis-led NWS offices toward scary scenarios. Kudos to @westMJim for taking a "wait and see" approach. Hats off! 

Lake effect isn’t panning out either.  Dry tiny flakes hardly accumulating.  Just blowing around.  It’s pretty and I prefer this outcome.  But man the global models whiffed bad the day before.  Even the NAM yesterday afternoon was giving 8 inches by this morning before it dried up as well 

[Stacsh]

The great blizzard of 2022.  

[Andie]

This is all pretty stunning all the way down to Brownsville, Texas.  

DFW is 11*   Windchill -5

NW Wind quieter at 16 to 21 mph.  

This morning 78,000 we’re reported out of power. I have High School friends reporting online multiple outages. Sitting in the cold and dark. 

The population of Tx has grown substantially the past 2-3 yrs.. The state just can’t keep up with the rapid growth/demand. Larger cities are particularly stressed.  
 

 

[gosaints]

Meteorology is hard.  The easy answer is models suck.  The truth is as they have improved we expect more out of the them.  Some set ups are hard