October 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Saw some flurries and graupel on my morning commute, but as this radar grab shows plainly, the bulk of the real wintery action is north of the 94 corridor. Got westerly winds converging to thank for that. Oh well, looks like a hefty streamer all the way across to my native Genesee Cnty. Perhaps it will sag south and clip Niko's place as well?

 

20171031 0730 am MI radar grab.GIF

I am always amazed to see how far these streamers can stretch off the lake when the perfect conditions are in play.  Your going to have a bountiful season if this persists into November (which I believe you will).

 

On another note, unfortunately, the storm that I was hoping would produce something interesting coming out of the SW is getting squashed by the over-powering HP coming out of Canada.  Not the right pattern you would like to see this time to allow the storm to phase or energize.  Maybe in future cycles we will have some potential.

[Tom]

For anyone who has WxBell, are your teleconnections section stuck at the Oct 26th run?  Mine has not updated and I have been refreshing the page and nothing seems to work.  Not sure if it is a site problem or just me.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm not sure what models OAX is looking at. They have us down for a slight chance of sprinkles this afternoon. Every model is saying if we get precipitation, it'll be light snow or at the least a rain/snow mix.

[Tom]

Will OMA/LNK see any flakes flying today???  Latest HRRR suggesting so...gonna be close...

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Will OMA/LNK see any flakes flying today???  Latest HRRR suggesting so...gonna be close...

 

 

I think we do. RAP and RPM saying we may even get light accumulations. God I hope.

[westMJim]

Not sure if I wanted to post this in October or November so I will post it in both.  For the last half hour or so I have been getting a heavy snow shower with very large flakes and it has came down hard enough for the snow to cover the ground and roofs and tops of cars.  So at least here at my house this will be the first measurable snow fall of the winter of 2017/18

[jaster220]

 

Looks like winter is in October-fest mood across the UP. Even NWS MQT offices, just a few miles inland from Superior, stacked a nice tally of flakes:

 

 

[Niko]

Saw some flurries and graupel on my morning commute, but as this radar grab shows plainly, the bulk of the real wintery action is north of the 94 corridor. Got westerly winds converging to thank for that. Oh well, looks like a hefty streamer all the way across to my native Genesee Cnty. Perhaps it will sag south and clip Niko's place as well?

 

20171031 0730 am MI radar grab.GIF

[Niko]

Currently cloudy, breezy and cold w temps in the upper 30s. Maybe some snowshowers today w possibly a light coating on grassy surfaces.

[westMJim]

Its still October so I will add this snow fall report over here as well (its already been posted in the November post) 

 

Here are some snow fall totals from some locations around Michigan for October 31, 1917

Date:Oct 31 13:30:00
Type:SNOW
City: SE Grand Rapids
Magnitude:M0.4 INCH
County:KENT
State:MI
Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Details:SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH 930 AM. 0.1 OF AN INCH FELL PRIOR TO 5 AM. ANOTHER 0.3 OF AN INCH FELL BETWEEN 830-930 AM. SNOW ACCUMULATION

 

Date:Oct 31 12:00:00
Type:SNOW
City:1 WNW WATERS
Magnitude:M5.9 INCH
County:OTSEGO
State:MI
Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS
Details:4.4 INCHES LAST 4 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 6 INCHES. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS

Date:Oct 31 13:46:00
Type:HEAVY SNOW
City:HERMAN
Magnitude:M6.0 INCH
County:BARAGA
State:MI
Source:CO-OP OBSERVER
Details:9 INCH SNOW DEPTH

[Minny_Weather]

Snow is definitely overperforming in West and Central Nebraska. Moderate snow near Kearney, heavy snow near Mullen. Radar showing that we may see some flurries here shortly, with the real snow coming. Temperature is 32.4 on my balcony, and this is definitely a concern as temperatures will rise with our South wind. Just need to hope that 850mb temps stay well below freezing and our temps don't rise above 37 or so before it gets here.

[westMJim]

This will be the snowiest October 31st in Grand Rapids since 1932 when .03" was reported. The most snow fall on the 31st is 1.5" and that was in 1917. Hum does that make this a hundred year event? BTY as for hints for snow on Halloween and the upcoming winter well that is a mixed bag. In 1917/18 Grand Rapids recorded 75.9" and in 1932/33 that winter GR only recorded 43.6" 

[Minny_Weather]

This is Cozad, NE.

 

[gabel23]

This is Cozad, NE.

 

vid-006Cozad-01.jpg

Holy cow it must have been coming down real good! 

[jaster220]

 

This will be the snowiest October 31st in Grand Rapids since 1932 when .03" was reported. The most snow fall on the 31st is 1.5" and that was in 1917. Hum does that make this a hundred year event? BTY as for hints for snow on Halloween and the upcoming winter well that is a mixed bag. In 1917/18 Grand Rapids recorded 75.9" and in 1932/33 that winter GR only recorded 43.6" 

 

 

I say heck yeah!  Deja-Vu for 1917-18, even tho the warm season leading to the historic winter back then was much colder. Hey. GR went from no temp below 40F, to measurable SN in short order.    Ma Nature never plays her cards in the same order as we all know.. 

[jaster220]

Date:Oct 31 12:00:00

Type:SNOW

City:1 WNW WATERS

Magnitude:M5.9 INCH

County:OTSEGO

State:MI

Source:OFFICIAL NWS OBS

Details:4.4 INCHES LAST 4 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 6 INCHES. THE DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS

 

That band meant business across NMI with 1"+ per hour at times. Quite the start for them places I used to frequent..

[Minny_Weather]

Looking vigilantly for first flakes right now. It'll be the first flakes that have fallen during CDT since 2009.

[NEJeremy]

It stinks the Omaha radar is offline to really get a good idea around here what is happening. From the Hastings radar it looks like a lot of virga over eastern Nebraska. T/DP spreads are too high for anything of significance to make it to the ground right away especially here in Omaha. Going to take some time to moisten up the atmosphere

[Tom]

 

Looks like winter is in October-fest mood across the UP. Even NWS MQT offices, just a few miles inland from Superior, stacked a nice tally of flakes:

 

20171031 MQT 24hr SN totals.jpg

Wakefield...heck ya!  That's where Indianhead Mtn Resort is located...it's going to be a good season.  They plan on opening November 25th.

[jzuzphreek]

Even down "south," here in Northern, MO, we're looking at a chance of some flurries/sleet just in time for Trick-Or-Treating! 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Good news is that my balcony temp is holding steady at 33. Soundings are more than good enough for the precip to hit the ground as snow, once precip actually makes it to the ground that is. I think the magic number is 38* for the rain/snow line.

[Tom]

No joke, this LES season is off to a great start!  6" at Gaylord, MI....

 

 

[Tom]

Good news is that my balcony temp is holding steady at 33. Soundings are more than good enough for the precip to hit the ground as snow, once precip actually makes it to the ground that is. I think the magic number is 38* for the rain/snow line.

LNK looking good right now...those heavier bands are holding together...hey, looks like nature is over-performing instead of the other way around!

[Minny_Weather]

It stinks the Omaha radar is offline to really get a good idea around here what is happening. From the Hastings radar it looks like a lot of virga over eastern Nebraska. T/DP spreads are too high for anything of significance to make it to the ground right away especially here in Omaha. Going to take some time to moisten up the atmosphere

I'm using Topeka radar. Its range isn't great but it provides good coverage around Lincoln.

[snowstorm83]

OAX now has 70% chance rain/snow for Lincoln.

[james1976]

Reminds me of a clipper type system out in NE right now

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR was a bit glitchy on its last run lol.

[jaster220]

Looking vigilantly for first flakes right now. It'll be the first flakes that have fallen during CDT since 2009.

 

Omadome holding firmly?? Radar over NE looks pretty impressive tbh. A lot like some of those GEFS members the other day. In typical fashion, Marshall snagged some flakes from the last dying streamer off the Lake. Just as it was drying up. Got a txt from home that it was "snowing". Ofc, I'm by that warm bathtub lake Mich, so I've still not seen a legit snow shower even. 

[Minny_Weather]

Heavy snow is only 2 counties away. Balcony temperature is 34.5. COME ONNNNN

[jaster220]

HRRR was a bit glitchy on its last run lol.

 

Nm, it's now-cast time anyways

[jaster220]

Heavy snow is only 2 counties away. Balcony temperature is 34.5. COME ONNNNN

 

    You remind me so much of a younger me back in the lame late 80's in SEMI. Patterns sucked back then, one reason I went north in the (white) gold rush of '90 

[Minny_Weather]

    You remind me so much of a younger me back in the lame late 80's in SEMI. Patterns sucked back then, one reason I went north in the (white) gold rush of '90 

I'm thinking once the snow band moves in, that'll be good enough to drop temperatures. We need it to actually get here first.

 

1 county away... Still no flakes here.

[St Paul Storm]

Still only 27° here at noon. Had a few passing flurries this morning. Trick or treaters gonna be a bit cold later today.

[Minny_Weather]

The Lincoln dome actually exists.

[Tom]

Still only 27° here at noon. Had a few passing flurries this morning. Trick or treaters gonna be a bit cold later today.

It's been blowing all morning with sunshine finally breaking out and temps holding steady in the upper 30's.  I must say, it's a bit cold out there!  Ready for more snow this week?  Man, last year you couldn't buy a flake and all these misses to your north and south.  Seems like things are aligning for your area this season.

[mlgamer]

Light snow falling here in Topeka KS in October no less!

 

Is this a portent of generous and historic snows to come? Or is it the proverbial early season middle fingers falling from the sky?

 

...only time will tell!

[gabel23]

Heavy snow is only 2 counties away. Balcony temperature is 34.5. COME ONNNNN

Snowing like crazy here!!! Accumulating on grass and pavement is wet! I will have a video up loaded soon. So awesome, the problem is my garden is still not cleaned up so I'm hoping the ground doesn't freeze yet! 

[Minny_Weather]

Snowing like crazy here!!! Accumulating on grass and pavement is wet! I will have a video up loaded soon. So awesome, the problem is my garden is still not cleaned up so I'm hoping the ground doesn't freeze yet!

No flakes. Line is getting less intense the closer it gets to here. I can see the sun thru the thin clouds. If we get more than a trace we're lucky.

[gabel23]

The Lincoln dome actually exists.

Screenshot_20171031-121408.png

I think it's gonna saturate the atmosphere just enough for you to get a trace of snow. 

[Minny_Weather]

First flake of the season on my balcony: 10/31 at 1:17 PM CDT.